Member Info for Supercooper

Or start increasing production with the millions spent drilling in Ghana for the last 18 months. The SP has stood still because the company has stood still. This latest distraction (merger) is another way to squander shareholders money on his mates in Morgan Stanley. He needs to pull something out of the hat very soon that will be of value to shareholders for a change.

And lets hope Rahul is not tempted into a bidding war - based on their results we're already paying over the top

Anything less than 200mln after tax profit will spell the end of the CNE deal - that might not be a bad thing. Tlw averaged 60$ per barrel same time last year and now reached 85$ with pre-emption production

https://www.bbc.com/news/62724762 - court decision on Monday.

If the merger doesn't go through, both Tlw and Cne management will look pretty incompetent in my view, along with both boards. I think it is too early to judge the merits of the deal as certain events may or may not happen prior to a vote. As it stands institutional investors objecting are "stating the bleedin obvious". Nobody has full information yet so lets wait and see....

Whitehat, agree with your last sentence. On Tlw debt, two points :-

1. Most of the debt is Bonds at fixed interest rate (admittedly a high rate negotiated when Tlw was nearly bankrupt). So higher bank rates will not affect Tlw unless they re-negotiate.
2. Tlw is ploughing FCF into attempting to increase production at a time of high oil prices (not sure how successfully). It is their decision not to reduce debt substantially from the cash they are generating.

In addition, they will soon be getting paid for the associated and non associated gas in Ghana.

We could potentially be 3 months away from an announcement on the Kenya deal due to the challenge submitted to the election results.

So full information is not available at this time that could substantiate the terms of the deal. Personally as a Tlw shareholder, the existing terms are at the limit of what I would support. But as you say, it will be down to the II's.

My own theory for what its worth is because of the low volumes traded, those involved in the "Risk Arbitrage" on the CNE deal can easily hold the price down even if the oil price went to 110. It still comes down to why would you put a lot of money into this share based on the last 18 months news-flow? The fact is no institutions are buying yet and until they do, other big players are following their own agenda.

Agreed Starboard, in addition they need to demonstrate that their capital allocation is sound, with the drilling in Ghana needing to show increase in production as opposed to standing still. The only good news in 18 months has been the Oxy pre-emption which was a no brainer. That's why we are stuck around these levels.

Point taken, probably a little harsh as the numbers are right. However, I'm a bit disappointed that having spent approx 600mln drilling in Ghana we are not much better than treading water.

"He pointed to successes this year in increasing production from offshore assets in Ghana as evidence that existing projects have more to give. First-half net production at the Jubilee field was 31,000boepd, compared with 25,000boepd a year ago."

Now telling porkies is not getting Rahul out of this situation - the increase in production was due entirely to the pre-emption buy out and nothing to do with Ghana drilling which as a result of Ten decreasing, remains static. Coupled with the now likely delay in the Kenya elections probably puts the CNE deal beyond reach. Not too worried about that as it is not a great deal for Tlw shareholders based on future prospects both companies on their own.

Wait til 1:00pm - normal service will have resumed by then.

Toady is the last day for submitting objections to the election results to the courts. If they haven't already done so, Odinga's representatives have 24 hours. Courts must rule within 14 days and if they nullify results, new elections must be held within 60 days of the ruling.

A number of posters on here deliberately look to explain a dip in the Tlw SP with failings of Tlw or Tlw management for their own agenda, when much of the time the SP movement is down to sector sentiment. As I have said before, overlay some sector peers onto the Tlw graph over the last 3 months. In the absence of news that's what happens. Clearly we are getting close to "show-time" for the company where demonstrative signs of progress need to appear if this merger is to go ahead.

Would much prefer for the deal to be dead than Tlw improving the already generous terms. CNE should be classified under Financials not Oil & Gas. Their board have no strategy to utilise the cash and if CNE shareholders are saying the company is undervalued, all I'll say is welcome to our world. Unless Tlw have stellar half year results and announce a stellar Kenyan deal then it will have been an ill conceived approach by Rahul and will reflect badly on him. Particularly given his experience in mergers and acquisitions for Morgan Stanley - think it was Morgan Stanley

Thank you SLBH - yes sure enough 888k trade 16:36

Large buy trade reported after hours this evening

They are only reported after hours not transacted after hours.

In the absence of any news, Tlw has pretty much followed sector - wide movement over the last 4 months. Overlay Hbr and Enq on the Tlw chart and you will see what I mean. As I said, I don't believe those 2mln and 1mln trades over the last two weeks are that of a trader. BB, you got out of Tlw @52p when it went down to 42 forecasting Tlw to go as low as into the 20's over July and August. Now you are trading the stock in the low 50's with 1mln +orders??? Give me a break....

When I said somebody accumulating I didn't think in terms of a bid, just some opportunist in the know - insider trading at its best.

Previous week there were daily 2mln trades reported after hours. I don't believe this is a trader. They're either buy or sell orders being filled throughout the day and the final price could be at anytime and that is why it is impossible to know whether they are buys or sells. My guess is because of how the SP has held up with poo decreasing by 10$ and a duster being announced, they are buys - somebody accumulating.