Member Info for Supercooper

I hold and I can see the prospects for this company but I'm not blinded to the fact that there has been little or no good news in the last 18 months, that we have spent money drilling in Ghana with no production increase and as a result , debt level remains extremely high. The truth is about the 2tcf of gas - they don't have the financial resources to develop it yet unless future production guidance is way beyond my expectations. I've made my views known on the half year results already. Good prospects but painfully slow progress.

Well Beet,
You seem to be in favour of everything - you said the merger would benefit both sets of shareholders and that it was "exciting times". Now you happy the merger is off. If it's back on again I sense you will be over the moon.....

Good to see one II increasing their stake - now 11.06% putting it in a very influential position

Maybe save a fortune in advisor's fees? Now Rahul needs to come up with a plan to increase FCF and reduce debt.

The jury's out on how the company is doing. It decided (or the Ghanian Govt decided) to drill multiple wells icosting 500-600mln n Ghana to maintain and develop existing resource rather than paying down debt. 2023 production guidance when it arrives, will determine how good an idea that was. The Kenya deal will arrive - issue is how good it is for Tlw shareholders. Developing gas in Ghana is again about how Tlw shareholders come out of that deal. Doesn't sound good when the MD of Tullow Ghana is quoted in the papers as saying negotiations to need to hurry up. Meanwhile Tullow's fate is inextricably tied to the OP.

DB, the "excitement " will start when the merger doesn't go through and the CNE SP collapses. The only thing elevating it is the prospect of better terms which hopefully for Tlw shareholders never materialises.

Nothing new - my post 13th September :-

AOI Presentation
Have been sitting in on the above - no definitive news on Kenya. Keith Hill reckons announcement could be by end of month, but he also said that's what he said in June and back in 2019! One interesting thing he said was that further exploration in Kenya will probably double the resource in place (1 Bln barrels)

Hi DB, I agree with you. Volumes in Tlw have decreased to a trickle now and SP movements can be distorted as a result. I think "manipulation" has little to do with it. Supply and demand is at work where there is no demand for Tlw shares compared to 3 or 4 years ago.

"Stocks do not continually go up" - have you looked at Tullow's 2 year graph recently??

These boards are for exchanging views and facts and in the process learning a few things. If a poster is "glass half full" (or even "glass full") their views and any others should be tolerated and rebuffed if appropriate. That way you get a balance that might inform others with their investment decisions. Unless there is a hidden agenda, everybody is entitled to an opinion.

Firstly I've held for a lot more than 3/4 of a year, secondly you have no idea what quantities I hold and hence level of risk I have or my personal circumstances. Thirdly, those results have demonstrated that TLW is barely profitable at high oil prices. Fourthly, income from Kenya is years away. Fifthly....what's the point when some are in denial? The SP may get a spike on any Kenya news and that's the only reason I have still got a holding in these.

What news - Keith Hill speculating again about the deal? I reduced yesterday based on the results but if I thought there was no value in the Kenya asset I would have been gone long ago. So why are you still long??

Hill also said that FID won't be until the end of 2023 so there will be little or no capex next year. Bailiff, there are different permutations on what the deal could look like.
1. Farm down a % for lump sum of cash - obviously would enable debt reduction irrespective of CNE merger.
2. Farm down a % for a carried interest - no capex for development with a retained % of production
3. Sell the whole interest for lump sum - doesn't seem to be indicated by Rahul so far

Reducing my exposure by 50% first thing (possibly more) - these results are atrocious and markets will see through them. Rahul is a con man

After Tax profit 246mln
Once-off gain of 196 mln
Real after tax profit 50mln - same period last year 93mln

Have been sitting in on the above - no definitive news on Kenya. Keith Hill reckons announcement could be by end of month, but he also said that's what he said in June and back in 2019! One interesting thing he said was that further exploration in Kenya will probably double the resource in place (1 Bln barrels)

Tlw SP hasn't gone up on speculation of results - just look at the pathetic volumes. It has recovered a little of it's price with OP and sector sentiment. There's no demand for this share - lets hope the results changes attitudes to this share.

New proposals were submitted to the board from new interested parties after the Tullow announcement - they are just confirming their fiduciary obligations to evaluate on behalf of their shareholders any offers for the company. Nothing sinister in that.

President elect Ruto sworn in 13/09
Tlw results 14/09
Africa Oil "Town Hall" Q & A shareholders meeting 13/09

CDF1 - I assume that's a tongue in cheek comment. Volumes in Tlw are miniscule and that is how the price can be marked down so easily. In the absence of any news it is moving in line with the sector/OP. Nobody is building a position in Tlw presently.