Member Info for Supercooper

At which point you will be warning of an imminent rights issue Happy, am I correct?:)

Ehmmm...may need to build more prisons just for LSE boards alone

I'm no chartist but the graph does look dire to me

Contractually obliged to repay 100mln every year around this time - happened last year also.

No problem CS. Not sure I agree with destitute on this point. The board are duty bound legally to disclose any information/news that can be considered price sensitive to the market. Lenders cannot prevent these disclosures. Personally also I don't subscribe to the idea of a "news blackout" - my experience of Tlw is that the reason its gone quiet is there's no bl**dy news. In general, I've said it before that Tlw comms has been and still is very poor.

39% is correct

Happy to engage in serious discussion Clunge.

Tlw is High Risk and therefore there's a requirement for high return. What's the potential for high return?

We are aware of the near term catalysts :-

1. New Gas sale agreement with Ghana - quality of deal will be critical

2. FDP approval and farm down in Kenya - quality of deal will be critical

3. Self financed production increases in Jubilee and Jubilee S/E from 73k bpd to 110kbpd

4. Cote D'Ivoire/Gabon exploration - speculative but part of ilx strategy

5. Hedges rolling off increasing exposure to higher OP

6. Possibility of inorganic growth ( constantly referred to by Rahul)

Refinancing not due until 2025

All things being equal, Capex should reduce from 2024 (including de-commissioning costs) increasing FCF.

Whilst most negative posters concentrate on high debt, the biggest risk for me is the OP over the next 3 years.

Thought that might smoke him out. By the way, did u know talking to yourself is the first sign of madness - no, I didn't know that. Well it is - thanks for the tip....(just for you Clunge)

Poor old NSVP doesn't seem to know - I'd say 2p would be safe enough :)

Clunge, lighten up. I was only messing around. You don't need me to make you look like a fool, now do you?

Thought as much Clunge -you don't have a clue what the right level of debt is. All you know is the present level is way too much. Classic..................

So Clunge, if 1.8bln is too much debt, you must know what the right amount of debt is for Tlw - go on, educate us all :)

You won't get any info that isn't in the public domain. The trouble with Rahul is that it's always jam tomorrow or as the saying goes "Live horse and you'll eat grass".

A this stage it is down to the quality of the deal - it's true that Tlw are in a better position than when they sold Uganda so no excuses this time Rahul.

As an aside if anyone cares to look at their RNS, Capricorns "strategy" is remarkably similar to Tullow's. You couldn't make it up.........

"Rubbish company run by an utterly useless CEO.." - makes you wonder why you spend time posting on here :)

Capricorn shareholders that "got a lucky escape" from Tlw must be well pleased. SP flat for months until today with a 9% drop. Reality sinking in with what "the industry" has done to the company.

The stockmarket doesn't accurately value stocks either to the upside or downside. People in the know ("the industry" as you like to call it) make money through manipulation, application of logarithms, exchange of information etc. PI's can only hope to get lucky and know when to sell....

Except of course at current OP they will still be making money. Don't forget the after tax profit was net of a 391mln write down of TEN which is a non cash item.

The mistake that many are making with the Tlw share price is that they think the reason for the SP movement is substantially Tlw specific. It isn't - small to mid-cap oilers sentiment has deteriorated badly over the last 6 months. Take a look at the graphs. Yes there is little positive news coming from Tlw at the moment but there are a number of short term catalysts that could change the narrative. It would be a classic PI mistake to sell now!