Member Info for Supercooper

If Tlw "walked" from Guyana, AOI and Total would benefit - could there be a deal on there that would make sense of the Kenya news???

If Ruto is saying Kenya is not developing the resource, then Tlw are duty bound to issue an RNS to that effect. At the same time, we are led to believe both partners decided to walk away from the project for different strategic reasons but at exactly the same time. Even if the partners stake was only worth 10mln, there's still no % in walking away for nothing. Rahul has a lot of explaining to do....,

Well how wrong can I be! That looks like there is no value in Kenya - AOI/Total don't walk away from an imminent deal. Tlw never fails to surprise to the downside.

If you've got Tlw shares I'll buy them off you at 7p - whad y' say

Generally though, if all three elements are in place, you've missed the boat. The trick is to get in ahead of those things being in place. After that, its down to how risk averse are you and what is your investment horizon. Personally I'm prepared to give Tlw another 12 months.

I could be way out here, but substantial deleveraging and possible buying of assets (inorganic growth) must pitch it at 800mln-1bln - yes more than amounts being mentioned here up to now.

I'm increasingly of the view that a Strategic partner (ONGC) is waiting in the wings for FID approval before signing on dotted line. Rahul has said a number of times that 2023 will be the year that people stop worrying about Tlw debt. He also referred to Tlw having financial flexibility for inorganic growth opportunities (M & A). This can only happen with a substantial injection of cash which can only come from Kenya. So my conclusion is that Tlw will get substantial cash in return for 35-40% of Kenya with no carried interest. The development costs of Kenya would then be 150mln - 200mln per year for two years - easily dealt with given increased cashflow from 2024 onwards. Listen to the webcast March 20th from around 53mins

Relax guys, it was a tongue in cheek comment. BOD buy shares? Do me a favour.............................

Realistically then, 3 years before he can buy???

I believe I know the reason for the recent rise - it's Rahul buying (yes buying with his own money) shares to bolster the price ahead of the AGM because he's worried for his personal safety. I shouldn't worry Rahul, these AGM's tend to be tame affairs with nobody brave enough to take the management team's to task.

NSV, boepd . This is where the cash has gone in the last 18 months (along with 2 Ten wells that were duds). Self financed production growth and while its late coming its still welcome.

Yes, no major benefit to Tlw unless the OP is close to $90

Rathgar6, we've been waiting three years for the team to implement the plan - a kick in the g****ies is more appropriate than a pat on the back. But I take you're point, the SP has taken a battering for no apparent reason recently.

Keith Hill should keep his mouth shut. Every quarter through 2022 he was predicting the Kenya deal would be signed off and was wrong each time. Then he was silenced by the other partners. Now he's down beat about a strategic partner being found. Just shut the f**k up.

Whether your long or short on Tlw, the reason why Tlw is valued at this level is simple - nobody wants the shares. The volumes in the last 6 months is insignificant. In the context of 1.5bln shares in issue, average daily volumes are less than 5mln. In that scenario the SP has been relentlessly dropped in small steps.

The reason nobody wants the shares is that pre Rahul, Mcdaid lied through his teeth. Since Rahul has come in (3 years now) despite promises, production hasn't increased 1 boepd More naivety than lies on Rahul's part but the end result is the same - over promising and under delivering. Investors just got sick of it.

There is a chance to turn that round in the next 12 months which is why I'm still invested but time is running out Rahul.

All too late to try and rationalize the plunge in Tlw SP - no point in baling now as much of the damage is done and the negative macro situation has to a large extent been anticipated in forward looking markets. The small/mid cap oil sector has been hit hard but Tlw has been pummeled. Maybe some people know what's coming down the line but volumes are small so it's not a sell off (but death by a thousand cuts).

Principle of 100mln + any interest due

That's very positive - so $100 OP on its way. Truth is nobody has a clue what the OP will be tomorrow never mind medium term coz nobody knows what the Saudi's might do. They showed who is in charge when they increased production to bring the OP down to negative territory. The IEA forecasting with all their resources is the biggest joke there is.

I don't blame you for denying such a silly suggestion Happy. Also, don't make assumptions about my wealth - you have no clue. Tlw is part of my portfolio and its the portfolio value that's important.

Except of course you were recommending a rights issue at 14p 3 years ago Ha Ha