Member Info for sudnal

For a FTSE100 stock to fall 22% with no news whatsoever is staggering to say the least.

Last chance to get in before the big short squeeze later today and on RNS tomorrow

For a company making £1.586 bn per year in revenues, with roughly £200mn profits, this is absurd valuation and that too for a health care company. This is immune from any recession as people say..Sanity will return..give it time.

Think this is one final assault by shorters before they close down..

Think the share price fall is getting beyond ridiculous..

Coronavirus: China to pump $170bn into economy amid growth fears. Link below has the details and hopefully this helps give it some push.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51347497

People make too much of perched stranded water. Not many here are experts and we have to trust Dr Trice on that, Considering Water Cut and Well 6 is producing 16,500 some days and 7Z producing 9,800 they would have given a conservative estimate of 20,000 barrels a day. This is likely to be much higher IMO.
I suspect the reason for the fall is due to the partnership with Spirit Energy and the situation with that being fluid with Centrica trying to offload and not sure of the strategy the new buyers will adopt + Given limited successful thus far with GWA (Lincoln produced oil), but Warwick west with limited success thus far.
These are short term headwinds anyways.
Longer term, if Lancaster continues to produce, that alone has 458 million barrels of oil, which equates to $27bn at $60/barrel, which inturn equates to roughly $13 per share. If other wells come in as expected in Lincoln etc, this will be even more. I am a LTH and will continue to hold and ignore the noise. MARKET WILL EVENTUALLY REALISE THE VALUE. Let's not forget that if any positive news comes, none of the PIs will be allowed to get in at a lower price at prices we are at now. So sit tight, let shorters play their games and enjoy your time. Personally i trust Dr T, given his 30 years and experience and achievements and i dont think he will be doing it at this age for money, but more for reputation and pride.

My analysis of OGA tweet, is related to well 7Z.

People make too much of perched stranded water. Not many here are experts and we have to trust Dr Trice on that, Considering Water Cut and Well 6 is producing 16,500 some days and 7Z producing 9,800 they would have given a conservative estimate of 20,000 barrels a day. This is likely to be much higher IMO.
I suspect the reason for the fall is due to the partnership with Spirit Energy and the situation with that being fluid with Centrica trying to offload and not sure of the strategy the new buyers will adopt + Given limited successful thus far with GWA (Lincoln produced oil), but Warwick west with limited success thus far.
These are short term headwinds anyways.
Longer term, if Lancaster continues to produce, that alone has 458 million barrels of oil, which equates to $27bn at $60/barrel, which inturn equates to roughly $13 per share. If other wells come in as expected in Lincoln etc, this will be even more. I am a LTH and will continue to hold and ignore the noise. MARKET WILL EVENTUALLY REALISE THE VALUE. Let's not forget that if any positive news comes, none of the PIs will be allowed to get in at a lower price at prices we are at now. So sit tight, let shorters play their games and enjoy your time. Personally i trust Dr T, given his 30 years and experience and achievements and i dont think he will be doing it at this age for money, but more for reputation and pride.

My analysis of OGA tweet, is related to well 7Z.

Increase in shorts in the last 2 days and release of the article today, does indicate to me that they are all acting with each other's knowledge..otherwise as others observed, if the guy is fair he should have written the article a year ago

We cant look at share price every day as they are bound to be fluctuations..Today's RNS provides enough assurance that this is a long term hold. Give this time and it will pay off..It wont be long before this captures major ii's attention and this will reward suitably in my view. As always DYOR..There are few scaremongers here as always, just trust Dr T and move on as he is the expert and at that age, he is passionate about delivering this and dont think its about money, but reputation and pride...

Dont understand this drop...Looks like all stop losses are now being taken out...

Not sure why Goldman Sachs would offload 2.5% of their recently acquired shares in NMC so cheap, when they have a target of 41.70. Something doesnt look right..

Think its rude not to add at these prices..

Think this might close around 96-97 IMO..

Agree. New management required to change the course of the ship...Although its a cash generative business, new management will bring in new ideas and a couple of heavy hitting leaders from the market will add lots of firepower and drive the right strategy and efficiencies within the business. The business is hardly in a terminal situation and they seem to be expanding in UK, Australia, collaborating with super markets to launch their products. Fall appears overdone based on fundamentals and this will change its course this week...

The company is very good with revenue generation, profits name all parameters they were fantastic. Somehow it appears to me that the offloading of shares by major shareholders was always in the pipeline and they have chosen to elevate the share price through buy backs etc in mid December, to get them the maximum value. However, Muddy waters report appeared and their plans have gone topsy turvy. Still think it buy backs appears like a CON to me to get elevated prices to major shareholders who sold out today. MW will also come back as they mentioned in January, as they were short of staff during December to counter NMC report. For now, i will sit on the sidelines and wait for further clarity before venturing in..

Debt has been transferred over to Bovis..

Think the shorters are dragging the PIs into this before taking this further down IMO..

I concur with the targets based on yearly revenues they are generating from the construction business and cash in hand of £300m - no debt, no pension problems and all legacy issues seems to have been resolved as well. With Boris going to spend on Infrastructure in the coming weeks, they are in a strong position with cash in hand than any other comparable major construction company Morgan Sindall, Costain, Balfour Beatty etc. A juicy dividend if paid out of available cash will be even more attractive for new investors. They also need to focus on increasing margins from the construction business to give it a real push. Few triggers:
1) Big order announcements - HS2, other infra orders
2) Institutional investors loading more shares
3) Upgrades from brokers
4) Announcement of juicy dividend
5) Good management strategy announcement for winning work and increasing margins
Good luck all - all in my opinion..

As per last year financial year reports, the construction business (excluding regeneration and partnerships, Linden homes) has an order book of £2.9 billion with 2019 revenue of £1.386m with a loss of £15m, but add £300mn which Bovis paid, this would make the company with £285m profit with £2.9m order book and confirmed revenue of £1.386m. Think this will be re-rated in my view in-time.