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Paul Scott from Wikipedia wrote in January this year that this stock was very undervalued when it has fallen to 98p and that he was a long term investor at that time and that the risk/reward was fairly balanced in his opinion. Not sure why Liberum Capital reiterated a Buy recommendation today with a target of £1 and Morgan Stanley very recently with a target of 85p. What is new today that we don't know earlier in the year in terms of last year results. It's all the same IMO.

COVID is a special situation that is new like with all other companies they have to deal with. They have taken actions that are in their control i.e. reduce operational and capital expenditure, more online sales, furloughing staff etc. Comments from analysts are to scare monger small PI's. You dont make a loss until you sell.

You're right acrossthesea. My workings are based on current set up for the EPS and doesn't take into account other assets or future growth prospects and even that looks undervalued to me. As i say this should be 8.1p minimum based on current conditions and if any factors improve (i.e. POO, Production volumes) then that will be net positive. Oil and gas companies on average historically trade at 16.5 times and even from that perspective this looks way too undervalued IMO. Of course, risk factors like debt, bonds, legal factors and other dynamics for each company will vary.

My number crunching tells me that producing 13,000 barrels of oil per day (which was what they produced on average before Dec 2019 from well 6) and Brent remaining at $35 per barrel and with cash available, the share price should be minimum 8.1p. This will go down further on POO down, production volumes down and up on POO going up, production volumes increasing.

With the same production volume if POO is $40, then the price will have to be minimum 9p.

Shows to me that this is undervalued by atleast 20% depending on what we know at the moment, without taking into consideration any aspects of future growth. I will be taking a position on Tuesday, if it remains at the current price.

Guys, don’t waste your time and enjoy the weekend with your family. Whether hur goes down or up doesn’t matter In time. See you all on Tuesday.

The share price reaction is bizarre as everyone eluded to based on Apr 30th update - 50% drop from 67p to 35.75p today in unimaginable based on what the accounts tell me. £217m cash in hand, £114m profit generated last year and price to earnings per share of 32.5p so currently trading at 1.2 times. Too much pessimism regarding this share and hence the downward trend IMO. Market is a weighing machine and im sure this will correct itself in good time. Im not losing my sleep over it and have an average of 41, which im sure will be achieved in the short term and much more. Triggers: Polish tax new is imminent IMO based on recent commentary on 30th Apr, payment collection figures in April.

I got the timing wrong too, but nevertheless you don't lose until you sell. Our chance will come and patience is required. BOD will know the reasons that's keeping this share down. Sooner we get an RNS alleviating some of the concerns the better it is for everyone. I guess there are many LTHs here who would have been down by a lot of percentage points and i feel for them.

Afternoon Beza. I am still learning as well. My assumption is that there is a large sell order that is being filled in the background with a number of smaller sells drifting the share price lower and lower..

Buys are 3 times more than sells and the price is still down. Looks like a sell order filling..

Have taken a few today. Certainly looks like there is an II selling or short increasing. Whitebox advisors opened and increased their short when it was close to 52 week low...May be they are increasing short. They see some weakness surely and hence shorted. Cash in the bank itself 2.5 times the current share price..

Think the market is overly pessimistic on on the future prospects of IPF and hence there are no takers. Positive management update or clearing of overhang with Polish tax authorities will send this up. I do think that the news is imminent as was announced in the update call on 30th Apr.

Looks like there is some strength in the share price today and let's hope it can recover to the levels it deserves to. Any confirmed news on Polish tax win for years 2008 and 2009 adding £34m + interest to the bottom line will send this share soaring IMO.

Patience people..As we all know share markets are a way of transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient....We will get our chance in time and given broker targets of over £2 think anyone buying here will do well IMO. But as always DYOR before investing.

Looks like a down day again with seller in the background or shorts increasing..

Beza, Reading through the RNS you've mentioned it does look like the announcement made in Oct 2019 was only for years 2010 to 2017 a settlement figure of £3.8m which took the share from £1.1 to £1.7 as you suggested. However, this doesn't cover years 2008 and 2009, the outcome of which was announced in the recent yearly update on 30th Apr. This is what is resolved now clearing the overhang IMO.

Iam copying and pasting the text below.
We are pleased to announce that the Polish tax authority has now closed its audits of the 2010, 2011 and 2012 financial years, having issued our Polish home credit company, Provident Polska, with a report on its findings. The report includes a challenge to the pricing of an intra-group arrangement with a UK Group company. In view of the ongoing nature of this arrangement, the tax authority has also proposed adjustments to the tax base for later years. Provident Polska has not contested these findings and has accepted the tax authority's proposed adjustments for the years 2010 to 2017 inclusive. The tax returns for these eight years have been amended and re-filed in line with the tax authority's position. This gives rise to an overall payment of around £3.8m for these years (2010 to 2017), which the company has now paid.

The court proceedings with respect to the 2008 and 2009 financial years continue to be stayed pending the outcome of a process involving the UK and Polish tax authorities aimed at ensuring that the intra-group arrangement in question is taxed in accordance with international tax principles.

Also from the recent results commentary, it appears that the overhang because of Polish tax for years 2008 and 2009 is cleared (possibly) because the judgement came in their favour. This will get them £34M + interest for the last many years on that amount once the judgement is made in writing (which i think is due soon). Assuming £34m is paid back by Polish authorities it goes straight to the bottomline numbers and £34m will add another 15p minimum to the current share. My analysis tells me this is undervalued and I am happy to hold and will not give away my shares on the cheap. Let the market correct itself in time. As always, do your own research before you venture into any shares as your investment decisions carry a risk on capital invested.

Ah ok. I see the logic now as they expected lots of bad news to come in the results. So in that case there are two possible scenarios of the share price action 1) Either an II is selling or 2) Shorts increasing further (i.e. Whitebox). Dont think that we PI's can influence the price too much...I hope some of the existing II's will load up more if they believe in this company as im seeing that most of the existing II's have bought these shares at a much higher price. Also Norges Bank stake gives me confidence as they are an ethical investor. Let's hope the share price corrects itself starting next week.

I am seeing that Whitebox advisors have opened a short as recently as 23rd April with 0.67% of the shares when they are at the lowest point and they kept increasing everyday from that point until 29th April until they reached 0.93%. Other than that the rest of the short positions are old. Can anyone throw more light on this? I am trying to understand the risks or regulatory changes based on which they've opened the shorts. Perhaps they see something that we dont even at this very low price.

Not sure, but ive bought a chunk of shares today as i felt they are undervalued looking at the PE multiple and a collection figure of 76% for April, which is good i think. They also paid £44m debt on 12th May. Doesnt mean they dont have their problems, but this share might surprise us with a good upside.

From the charts in google it appears that it's been to 18p in Nov 2002. I doubt if this will hit 20p as that means a market cap of £83m. But never say never in this market condition. GLA..

So far looks like this is holding reasonably well considering the broader market condition. May be this is the bottom, but time will tell..GLA..