Member Info for Stupmy

YB, I'm fascinated by Neom, the line and Saudis construction plans. If you have 30 mins to spare take a look at Patrick Boyles vid on Megaprojects on youtube. It's worth it.

Coldspy, you're obviously looking at the board, could you answer the question below please.

Why do you say this Coldspy? From my point of view, volume has been falling away ('very aggressively' suggests high volume) and 3 of the 4 companies with declared shorts have increased since the big SP drop, one of those came on the day of the RNS indicating Sidara had made an approach (so possibly before that was public) and one (the largest increase) was made on the 25th, which is after the approach by Sidara was made public. How do you know that shorts are 'aggressively closing'? I only have access to data that's 24-48h out of date (e.g. short tracker). Do you have access to real time info on shorts?

"Get the feeling shorts know they don't have a lot of time here.

Very aggressively closing out.

Hope news lands in the morning.. "

In fact I only missed the final paragraph summary. That was a terrible piece. A space filler. But I'm happy to be aware of it.

Thanks Kokomo, what a repetitive article. Doesn't actually say anything either, just draws to together known info and says the SP is drifting down!! Having said that, it was so facile that I stopped reading part way through.

It shouldn't really explain it NAV, the current price is below the SP of HBR prior to the W Dea deal. That deal gave us investment grade debt and a lower cost of production, plus a diversification away from the UK fiscal system. I get that the falling o&G prices are playing a part, but surely they're not enough to explain the current SP. 218 is starting to look quite likely. I didn't think we'd ever see that again. The price of HBR was actually down to 210/211 (reading from a daily chart) on Dec 4th 2023. Crazy to think that that has once again become a possibility.

Why do you say this Coldspy? From my point of view, volume has been falling away ('very aggressively' suggests high volume) and 3 of the 4 companies with declared shorts have increased since the big SP drop, one of those came on the day of the RNS indicating Sidara had made an approach (so possibly before that was public) and one (the largest increase) was made on the 25th, which is after the approach by Sidara was made public. How do you know that shorts are 'aggressively closing'? I only have access to data that's 24-48h out of date (e.g. short tracker). Do you have access to real time info on shorts?

"Get the feeling shorts know they don't have a lot of time here.

Very aggressively closing out.

Hope news lands in the morning.. "

I think it's a similar story for many of us who are still trading/investing after the first few years. Certainly is for me. I had to lose a lot, before I learned how much I had to learn. Doing ok now, but it can turn at any time. There's a very big difference between the posters who know a thing or two and those that have no intention of learning anything, but will happily tell you 'how it is'. We are also lucky enough to have some posters formally educated in business and finance to help guide us. Even better some of them are not simply formally educated, they have worked in relevant industries. On top of that there will be some good investors/traders that have learned by 'doing' if you see what I mean.

My advice is filter as many as you can as quickly as you can so you can listen to sensible comments from sensible people. It's why I quickly look at a posters history when they make ridiculous claims/comments/posts.

Shewillkillme, filter him. He registered today, has made 3 nonsensical posts and it will not get better, don't engage him.

Denz, I was the same for a long time, really didn't want to filter. But the last week or so here on WG has been making my head spin with all the tosh I'm having to filter. Literally, I have 60-70% of posters filtered and life is less stressful. I think more people should do it, it'll cut back the disputes which can't ever be resolved.

That was aimed at Rojen3, not at daz

You've done well to get your average up from 26p to 49 since Feb 20th?

"Yep agreed I don't have £100,000 worth, but I have loaded up with 90,347 shares at an average of 26.12p in my ISA. Seems good for long term potential in this stock, it's history and when compared with historical valutaions."

Great to finally get some sensible discussion. Some of the reason for that is that I've filtered 60-70% of posters here, some is because we're actually getting some folk with experience sharing it. SG, my advice is filter him, or it'll just be an irritation that will waste your time and energy.

I struggle to understand these things too NM. No idea what it means. It looks like they're accumulating and divesting SWAPs.

Rosey, I'm hoping that announcements like that are an indication that WG is currently at the bottom of it's business cycle and that a cash injection to tide it over will see it move back to profit. I personally see that as relevant. We'll have to wait and see whether WG will remain independent long enough to benefit though.

Take at a look at his posting history CS

"No more top ups for me - bought two more tranches this afternoon in the 33p range and with 200,000 shares i'm done.... "

That was posted by NMH21 on the 24th (2 days ago). Today he posts this

"Another little top up..."

Hmmm, this is why we need more fact and less speculation. Even the figure of 95% (not sure which poster put that up) that I checked using AI (but not directly on a SH register) could be off the mark. AI is typically not up to date and the last 2 weeks SP movement suggests large holders distributing shares to others (us/PI's) who think/thought they were getting a bargain. My guess is, that if the original figure of 95% ish holds water, then it's lower than that now, but even so it's likely very high and it's likely that II's hold the balance of the power with respect to negotiations on price. I personally believe that II's will be more interested in the viability of the underlying business and it's potential to return to profit, rather than dilution. I actually do believe that a cash injection (another poster suggested that management will be currently seeking this) will likely turn this company around. So, although I had not intended to make this a long term investment. I think I'd participate in a RI or buy more on the open market of there was a placing and the SP dropped to that level (often happens).

I do agree with others though that Sidara are unlikely to have come back to play games. I think they know what they want, what they want to pay and what their maximum is. They just have to work out how to get it.

WG are not in a great negotiating position so almost inevitably they'll have to accept less than 230p, but I don't think the company is finished either so they don't have to cave in for pennies.

I've thought about this Dan too, I think it would take a problem with getting accounts published to have this suspended. Again, I'd be very happy to have someone with boots on the ground experience explain this so that the conjecture becomes more limited.

Carrot, I think you're talking absolute nonsense. You even mention SH's having a say in this. What II is going to go for the arguments you've just posted? If you need 50% of SH to support an offer and PI's hold 3-5% (that may well be out of date with the distribution event that happened on the recent SP fall), how are PI's going to call the price here? It will be II's involved in discussions on price. They have a greater understanding of WG's situation (the more I consider this, the more I think that PC's idea about WG being at an inflexion point in their business cycle holds water; not his words), are likely less worried about a dilution, are not easily frightened etc. I think you're considering it on the basis of frightened PI's and I think you're well off the mark.

Thanks lightnotheat, it seems you've shed a little bit of light that comes from real experience and hopefully reduces speculation. There's a lot more we can learn from a few of the posters on this board and I for one am in this to learn.