Member Info for Stupmy

"tbh, there is time to make some money. Any cash call won't come for six months at least."

Takeyama, could you put some meat on the bones here as to why a 'cash call' won't (can't) come for 6 mths at least? It's a bold statement, now support it with evidence. They could have been (almost certainly have been) working on this as a possibility for weeks, possibly longer.

"The trend is up so follow the trend. "

Takayama, the trend is demonstrably not up. What are you talking about? You're just saying things for the sake of hearing your own voice!!

Takayama, If you're happy to spout these comments with no respect for the truth or a factual reference, it makes me wonder whether anything you say has any value at all?

Jenashon I watched the link and thanks for that. But the interpretation you take away makes me wonder whether we watched the same man. For me this was generic flannel. He focussed on making himself look to be on the ball wrt SH's. That's just damage limitation and PR. Not impressed at all. Clear, crystallised return on investment stated time and time again. What has he delivered that makes you feel that he's the right man for this clear return on investment? To me it looks like he realises what WG has not been doing and has been briefed on what to say to try to keep SH's on side. Get rid of him is my advice and replace him with a 'doer' not a 'bulls itter'

The volume this morning is extra-ordinary. The change in the SP is small. Not really sure how to interpret it, other than a near match between buyers and sellers. The volume is more than double the volume in any 2h period even during the panic selling. That is quite something.

Exactly that tradertaz, the previous high could mark the top of a triangle pattern. Should the price break to the upside, it might mark the triangle as a low and according to bullkowski's work might suggest at 50% (you need to check that) chance of a rise to 34.5 or thereabouts. I don't see an obvious place for sellers to come in at 34.5 (unless it's simply based on similar thinking to mine) so there might be a reasonable chance of higher prints.

These are all just probabilities/possibilities based on historical work. They don't allow anyone to see into the future. They often yield results though.

The trend is not up unless you're looking at a very short time period. It does however have the potential to be part of a bottoming pattern. We need a close above 29.8 to give any confidence of a good move up. I have a close above 29.8 as giving a reasonable chance of us seeing 37.5 or higher. The volume so far this morning (first 33 minutes) by far exceeds the volume in any 2h period even during the panic selling. That is interesting as the price is almost static.

As someone suggested, it could be related to shorts closing (but I personally doubt that unless there is a hint of good news in the pipeline). Looks like someone buying to me and stressed holders maybe selling into that. In my head I can rationalise that as limit sells just under 29p. If I'm right, those sellers are not expecting the price to close above 29.8.

All guesswork and no-one can see into the future. But I do think there are sellers stacked around 29-30p.

A lot of buying from open this morning. News expected?

Syn, when were the forcasts made? Do they take into account things that have happened in the last 1-2 weeks? If not, some of those forcasts might very well be revisited. I would love to have confidence that the SP will rise. But I'd like to understand on what basis that might happen. We seem to be in a time trap at the moment between maturities and cashflow. That assumes also that the management (whether that be the current management or a new team) can turn the company to profit.

If you look at the chart for WG and RR from around 2005 to 2020, there are striking similarities. Obviously RR has turned it's fortunes around (following a RI and I think consolidation). Do you think that is possible/probable for WG?

PC (or anyone with a sensible view), WG appears to have been in decline since 2017. We're looking for a cash injection to tide us over until the company turns CF positive. Why would we all of a sudden not be a company in decline? Why would this breathing space be a turnaround point (low point) for the companies fortunes?

Could that be part of the 'looking at all options' funds needed to tide the company over to service debt before FCF starts? They were talking about accessing 50m not 300m. 50m sounds like only an eigth of what Kepler suggest is needed as a cash injection.

KatS, if Kepler are right and 400m is the magic number and the SP is around 20p, then it'll take more than a doubling of shares in issue to fill that hole. What are the options

1) placing or RI (probable 3 fold dilution of SH's)

2) investment from outside the company but not SH's (t/o or merger? Are there other possibilities)

3) sale of assets (the clock is ticking on debt to equity, not clear that FCF will increase fast enough).

Are there other possilbilities?

PC, why do you reply to posters like Lll? Take a look at his posting history.

Lochnagary, I view it as the highest likelyhood event. Raise capital to stabilise the business. Then get on with the job of turning the company around.

Not sure why they ran with that as a headline, clickbait I guess, but it's worth knowing it's on the radar. Highly speculative and no evidence that it's a current threat.

The open will still be interesting bearing in mind the drops on general markets.

I've now read it and it seems highly speculative and I saw no evidence that this new virus is an immediate threat. So maybe the markets are reacting to the OPEX event. Whatever, it's maybe a good idea to have a bit of read up. If there's no recovery by or on Monday it might represent a significant event (whatever the cause is).

US markets have tumbled a bit and ZH is running this article. I've not had time to read it yet, but if there's anything in it, it could affect the travel industry (amongst others). Worth noting that it on the 3rd Fri of each month you get the biggest options expiries. As for some options, the MM's (hope I've got that term right) must hedge by buying or selling stocks, then as the options expire, those stock positions must be unwound. Hence at times like this you can get an exagerated movement of an index; in this case I'm looking at the DJI and the US500 being 1.7% off just now. From what I understand (and that's not a lot when it comes to options and how they affect stocks/indices) this OPEX (options expiry) is not a particularly big one. It's clear that the US markets are dropping quite hard though. Frequently, where there is an OPEX driving a fall in the markets due to closure of hedging stock positions, it's bought up quickly afterwards.

Anyway, not sure if it's of value to you guys, but maybe worth reading up over the weekend.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-puke-after-china-reports-new-coronavirus-pandemic-potential-discovered

Thanks for that input notrac, I guess that'll all come out in the wash over time. Maybe you've outed it. I'd be interested to know whether it is dodgy and whether it is behind our CFO leaving. I guess that could count as insider trading couldn't it? Although I'd imagine it could theoretically be argued away as a simple transacton to cover tax on the shares he was awarded.

The way you write that notrac, it doesn't look good at all. He's the CFO ffs (or was at the time). You'd have to take a stab that he knew there were accounting issues at that time. The UK tax year runs from April 6th so if he sold after that date as you suggest, then I doubt he was under pressure to realise that sale simply for tax reasons.

Not exactly a vote of confidence is it. That is laughable, what were they thinking about?

Aha, not very good news in fact NM, I don't think we'll see much of a move north on re 2-3 thousand quids worth of shares. What exactly are 'partnership' shares. Did these people actually buy them, or were they awarded them?