Member Info for Stupmy

Due to comittments elsewhere I closed my 324 buy around b/e. But I'm still watching. There's clearly a bit of buying coming in at 308 and above. Each times it dips buyers have a bit of a go. Maybe a close above 317 would be a positive sign (obviously news could blow the price out of the water out of hours). There is some evidence of accumulation at these levels. Volume is lowish, but who knows, maybe a there is accumulation. If I could resolve some other positions, I'd be more interested here.

Scuba, that sounds like Coldspy, I did it ages ago. Good for you.

I meant to say it's 'not' pretty! Sorry.

Thanks SD. I kind of see it, but it's pretty and it's easy to argue it was invalidated in Feb 2025 (but only just). I have to say it wasn't a stand-out pattern for me and without you giving the details I'd have struggled. What is clear however is that the price has fallen since that pattern activated. Inside my head (people run through that because they're too frightened to walk) HBR feels undervalued, but the SP (the market) is not currently agreeing. If you look back to Feb 2015 (weekly) to May 2015 you can see an area that might act as support 178 and 194ish. That's where we are now and the market is pausing/evaluating/weighing our value. For me, a fall below that (weekly close) would bring in values around 140 which just seem ridiculous. But in the past when I've suggested lower values for entries here and elsewhere, they too have seemed ridiculous, but they happened.

I'm 'very long' here so I'm not hoping for more downside.

Well, we're both long. But currently we're both lacking information. Could do with a bid price or at least a result of Deloitte's review.

There's next to no volume Krak, but what was sold yesterday seems to be being bought back today. At least the price is rising as I type, but with such low volume, a drop back would not surprise me.

Charta, most of your points there don't seem important to me. They seem to represent your view that this is a situation with only a positive outcome. I believe a positive outcome is likely from the curren 37-42p SP range, I also believe that risks remain.

A few points to note:

1. Wood is not distressed.

The market clearly thinks Wood is distressed.

2. It's winning contracts.

You need to make enough from contracts, fast enough to keep the ship afloat. At the moment, they're restructuring to help achieve this.

3. It has a £6.2BILLION order book.

As above, the profit on the contracts is critical. Recently, there has not been enough.

4. It has 18 months breathing space to re-finance its debt.

That's not long, but going to Denzils analysis, there's plenty of headroom for the moment.

5. It's more than halfway through its restructuring.

So what? It's pushed back it's views on when it will become FCF positive at least twice now. So why would we have confidence that 2026 is the turning point.

6. It's got rid of its lumpy one off contracts in favour of repeat revenue contracts.

Pulling out of future Turnkey projects looks likely to be beneficial over time.

7. It's selling off areas surplus to requirements & realising gains.

Two edged sword on this one, it'll have to sell parts of the business that realise profits.

8. It's currently being bid for - cash offer.

This suggests that the bidder (s) see value at 38-42p. My view is quite positive over time so I think over time we'll exceed this level.

9. and finally, do you honestly think the 70%+ of institutional shareholders will accept a bad offer?

I agree, the SH's will have a substantial say as to whether an offer is acceptible or not. Also since the important SH's are institutional, they'll have a better idea than us as to the likely hood of this company turning itself around.

SD, can you define the H&S pattern (sorry not iH&S). I can't really see anything in fact. There are lot's of possibilities (messy) that are apparently invalidated, but I'm struggling to see anything clear. Any chance of a chart somehow?

This is the first time SD that I've followed up on your iH&S idea. But I've been a little surprised by the drop this morning. I can still rationalise it for myself and am not yet worried, but we're getting closer to your target which you've now honed in to 157! As you say, let's hope not, or maybe we should hope so. I'm going to take a look. Without looking, my guess is that we're in relatively tightly defined trading range, the price is currently seeking volume by breaking to the downside and will snap back up. But, as I say, I'm getting more interested in your idea than my own!!

Yeah, there's a lot going on and you might be right. I've said similar things myself in the past. Watch this also, tongue in cheek youtube vid on NEOM, the Line and other Megaprojects from Patrick Boyle. Puts some perspective on what makes sense and what makes less sense.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-65bHmC9HY4

when you say 'the shorts' yb are you largely talking about hedge funds? they don't expect to win each trade, the function on the arbitrage between long and short positions. their strategies frequently underperform tracker funds, but once the chips are down and those in trackers or even many in selected stocks, start to lose money. the hedgies don't, or at least that's the strategy and that's why the really big money 'pis', musk, besos, zuckerberg etc put so much money into hedge funds. when the **** hits the fan, they start to earn their keep.

You say that they're 'hoovering up', but volume remains quite low. Maybe there's some gradual accumulation over time, but it's slow and measured if it is. Maybe the bulk of the trading is moving shares into the hands of the larger players. I could imagine it, assuming that we're in for an offer above the current levels, but I'm not seeing it clearly on my charts.

It'll be in the next 13 days the way I understand it YB! I hope it's sooner than 13 days to put an end to the waiting.

I agree on the uncertainty. Not following things as closely here at the moment, really only when I see something odd happening. Still not exposed and I've previously stated my view on what's likely.

Good luck with it.

That struck me as probable hyperbole PC! I have read about the Cotswolds and Nottinghill being Yank magnets, but I didn't imagine it was at scale.

I thought you'd been adding to your core holding Xhita. Does that mean that you've been selling some down?

I don't know the reason, but the price action is very odd. Volume seems ok/in line with the recent period, but the SP is flicking between 478 and 490 ish. Very odd.

It's already happening Xhita, civil unrest directed against Musk's involvement in US politics. Could get a lot worse.

My thoughts too Denzil. The Geopolitical climate didn't get more stable in the last 6 months.

".. I hold both and am not happy"

I don't think I've seen you happy on any share Jeffrey.