Member Info for Stupmy

VoR, makes sense to me, but can you factor future geopolitics into merger negotiations other than don't over pay and get as good a price as is possible. I guess, you can come to the table with a view of what could go wrong in the future to try to backstop the value case, but it must be very difficult.

At times of high stress such as this t/o negotiation after a big drop in mcap, pro-traders are likely to be able to manipulate the emotions of most PI's and move the SP around according their own systems. I'm positive on charting and TA. What I would say is that this kind of situation is a specialist situation and you need to have studied it in depth and separately to day to day trading activities. Maybe some people could see useful price action/volume/candle patterns etc, but I think it's very much a niche area. I for one have no idea other than the price will likely rise on an offer and fall if sidara don't offer or are rejected. The fact I'm still looking at the charts is probably a sign of stress. It's not doing me a lot of good at the moment.

On one of my accounts (you heard it, I'm dumb enough to hold ENQ in more than one account) then below 24p would feel like 'low ball'!!

"Are we going to get low balled ! "

Is that 'we' as shs or 'we' as Enquest?

From my reading, we're driving this potential transaction rather than having to give in to pressure from SQZ. What normally happens in these reverse t/o type situations? I can't imagine AB wanting to 'transact' at 11-12p. I could do with a lot higher than that personally, but if he thinks there is a big advantage to a merged entity, I guess it's possible we'd 'be lowballed'. But would that not just leave us and AB with shares of a certain value (presumably not less than the current value) in the new entity? Anyone with solid experience of this?

I can't help considering the t/o history of HBR/PMO/Wint Dea. It now seems that the transformational last deal there (HBR/WD) may have resulted in HBR overpaying for WD and the current SP seems to be punishing them for it.

I thought you were all rolling clover while I was firefighting my own decisions (negative yesterday). Sorry to see that it's dropped back. Good luck with it, great business and it deserves to do well, but we don't always get what we want (I got a bit of that yesterday, i.e. the not what I wanted scenario!).

Well, there's no point mucking about with how it seems, so I for one will say that the fall yesterday took me by surprise. I had hoped that the 218 area (I think it's a support from pre Wintershall days from memory) would mark the bottom. For that reason I was in 'gung-ho' easy money mindset. It doesn't look so easy just now and I worry that the 218 area might mark the top of a new trading range for a while. Like Midlandboy by the sound of things, I'm now thinking that if I have to hold on for longer than expected, then at least I have the divi to eat into my negative equity over the coming year or two. Fingers crossed, we'll also see a rise in SP over that time and things will feel easier. If that doesn't look likely to happen, I'll start trading around any new range and accept some losses in order to bring down my average SP. For the moment, although acutely painful, I'm not too worried. Biggest worry is trapped cash and opportunity cost.

Yep, I was also wondering about that. I guess there's an easy explanation. I'd even hazard a guess that Linda knew about that a long time ago and is executing (or trying to) another part of a complex puzzle. I think it would be a mistake to underestimate her. Those 360 shares are actually worth what they sell for.

"The results and capital markets day presentation is available on the Harbour website for those that like pictures and pretty colours with their bad news"

funny NAV

Hmmm..., maybe not directly MMs, but algo's all the same and I believe a lot of market making is run by algo's. Happy to be corrected. Anyway, this vid might be of interest to you and others. It may doesn't answer the exact question as to whether stops from a broker are visible outside that house, but might be itneresting to some.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQzjyn3YaL4

I have to say though that the market is not obviously buying that rumour up. The market is normally pretty quick to catch on to things so I have some doubts.

If it got anywhere near that BigW, I'd be greatly relieved.

Hmmmm... I've watched a fair few youtube vids of protraders (verified) with employment experience as MM or in roles related to them. Many of them say that although MM's are there to generate volume and don't really have any say in what they buy/sell, there are some in the role of MM's that are undoubtedly predatory. Make of it what you will. Historically I felt they fullfilled a role to maintain liquid markets and were largely neutral themselves. Now I feel as if they can actively seek liquidity by moving price across areas likely to hold stops/limits from PI's.

Sorry, can't give you a source, but I think if you searched it you'd quite quickly find some videos explaining it. One on technical trading that might hold some water is 'the secret mindset' on youtube.

SP surge!

Not a fairy dust volume surge, but the volume did suddenly surge in real terms.

Buzzard, a close below the 187/188 area would have me soiling it. That would imply (TA/charts and fairy dust) a fall to around 140-145 might be on the cards.

I added today so obviously I'm not hoping for that or expecting that.

If we're talking about facts and volume, then lets look at volume (no idea anymore what a fact is after the last couple of weeks on this board). Here's volume vs price on the WG chart. 15 minute intervals. To give a relative idea of volume (fairy dust volume), I've kept Coldspys volume surge call on the chart. So SYN, judging by the 'volume surge call' from Coldspy, you saying volume is low is not a fact. However, I'm with you, real (non-coldspy) volume is on the low side at the moment. So from my point of view, I'll agree it's a fact. I guess coldspy will argue against it.

https://screenrec.com/share/i3RHAg6xth

And here we go again

25th Feb from Lifesagame: "40p is showing resistance atm . Makes it impossible to day trade around this range given an indicative offer RNS could land at any moment , the shorts will need to run for cover , and any offer should be comfortably ahead of where we are now or alternatively rejecting a low ball one could restore confidence in the way forwards ."

Today from Lifesagame: "Looks like 37p is a sticky floor atm and this will test it and bounce back up tomorrow for those not wanting to be locked out if news breaks Monday am .

There is a nice 10 % range to trade but it will shift quickly the moment news drops so it’s just too much of a risk to be out IMO"

ffs is it just me that's had enough of this?

I'm not one for conspiracies etc, but has anyone else noticed an influx of 'apparently knowledgible' posters that seem (guesswork) to be chinese or asian or maybe eastern european. That's likely to come across all wrong, but I feel as if someone is trying to influence the bb's. I really am not a conspiracy bod, I normally turn my nose up at such stuff, but my head has been spinning recently with the number of posters with similar othographical errors suddenly turning up (sometimes very recently registered to the site) and trying to sound influential.

Probably nothing, but I've filtered you bondsan, despite you not showing any 'apparent knowledge' yet. I assume it's coming.

Thanks BigW

Director buys have some signficance depending upon the size of those buys. But broker targets etc that are published for free are not necessarily there to help PI's. If you understand the reason behind posting them for free then you might be able to gain some profit from them, but I personally would treat them with care. As an example, upgrades leading upto results can be specifically engineered to mean that results miss. In this particular game, that leads to a SP fall as PI's particulary get the will ies and the institutions who've prepositioned themselves win on the fall and collect cheaper shares when the fall stops. It's not all the way it seems out there.

Also TAM, I've never seen you post something even even handed, let alone negative. I have no idea what you're game is, but you've been on HBR for a long time. The SP for investors (not traders) has not paid off and you've never posted something even slightly considering a downside case.

"I would say valuation is the main reason to buy. PE could realise a 30% uplift in very short order. "

When you say that, are you thinking about VC. I have to say that I was thinking more about strategic acquisitions for other companies with an interest in the area. I guess you're right though Dartron.