Member Info for Stupmy

Simpiles, really I have low conviction on what I've done here, but my holding was not that important to me and there's a reasonable chance it'll pull back before moving up. I do think 20.8 or higher is reasonably likely in the not too distant future and I'm not particularly worried about a lot of downside. It'll either work or it won't.

For the name it's not important at all.

I hedged by closing my leveraged positions. I still have my shares, but I'm wary of out of hours news (that coming on the 22nd). I'll keep watching closely.

But the TERP I posted was based on that 2nd RI so it should hold as 638. For TUI their 790 or 800 TERP was based on their 3rd RI that was banged out to pay off the German government whol bailed them out during the pandemic. It massively reduced their debt and the servicing costs. In theory that means that TERP is a starting point for growth of a companty that is much stronger coming out of the pandemic. It hasn't panned out that way though, despite encouraging results.

Indeed fp, both of those aspects fit with a bullish stance and therefore a SP in excess of 638. Why is the SP at 500? Same with TUI the TERP over there was (from memory) around 800, the SP is less than 600 (from memory). Why? CCL is currently 1075, but the bb participants are convinced it should be much higher than that. Why isn't it? I don't know about RI's and TERPs on CCL, but the low SP's compared to SH expectations are perhaps related (related sector). What's holding them back. Everywhere, I read that the consumer is bouyant and will continue spending, discretionary items are fine etc etc. But something is weighing on the SP in the travel/leisure sector. There are specifics like those being discussed here, pay disputes, dodgy practices at boing etc, but it goes beyond that I think.

Here we go. RI was Sept 2021. SP was 789 before the RI and the TERP was 638 at the time of the RI: So if all else remained equal since 2021 the shares should have been 638 since that time. Things have changed since that and others might be able to put some meat on the bones of whether it's changed for the better or for the worse. Obviously, there is plenty of bullish sentiment here and much less bearish. Be interesting for someone with specific knowledge to flesh out what's happened sind Sept 2021. If the bulls are correct, the SP should be in excess of 638 and that might still be an achievable target in the short/medium term. The actual SP is currently a bit less than 500.

This clipped from the whole article (see link) explains the TERP.

https://screenrec.com/share/V3OLw0xFUg

https://www.fool.co.uk/2021/09/17/making-sense-of-easyjets-rights-issue/

I wasn't really putting much effort into EZJ during the pandemic. What was the TERP after the RI fp? I'm particularly interested as I was involved in TUI when they raised and their SP hasn't got anywhere near the TERP ever since. In theory the TERP accounts for the increase in shares. It gives me an idea of 'value' at the time of the RI.

It's very interesting. I'm still exposed here, but am worried about the rising shorts and the MKS update. This rise towards close is suggestive of a further move to the upside next week. But the drip drip rise in shorts implies some serious money is not in favour of much of a rise.

I've just read that Sangi, it's an appalling piece by a barely literate cretin who has tried and failed to make a coherent story out of various 'analyst' views. He seemed to me to have zero understanding of his material and a very weak grasp of english. Nothing in that piece that has not been discussed more effectively by some of the people on this board. How that got past an editor I don't know.

I am being very speculative on this and have dropped my remaining 30% or so at 14.45. The reason is that I'm expecting a pull back, but in a highly speculative way I've noticed similarities between the CPI charts and the BT chart. BT had a spike, which fell away, then a couple of rises and falls then took off. If (this is a massive guessy 'if') CPI was to follow a similar pattern, we will see a pull back (possible a 2nd rise and fall) then a jump to 20.8 possibly higher. So, my intention is to buy back if we do get a pull back. I still think 13.25 or lower is possible. Whether it's likely is a whole different thing.

You know, that's also important. You have to fit the investing/trading with your personality and lifestyle. So for example I don't do anything exciting. I don't want to be tied to the screens, I have many other things that I need to be able to attend to. So for me, no forex, no crypto, nothing that is likely to be heavily affected quickly by macro-economic considerations. So, it has to be what I view as value, main market and only companies that look to have a future. But, getting that balance right, is I believe important.

Strike, you don't have to call the low for it to be successful (great when that happens though). I have a positive view of EZJ or I wouldn't be here. I didn't buy at 580, I didn't get tempted at 520-530 and have waited, based upon my belief that we will see 470 or lower. I stated this over a long period of time and have waited. If I bought today, then my approach would have been already successful in that I avoided higher prices. But that might not give me a high chance of a fast profit.

Position size is a personal thing. When you learn over years to handle money, you're less prone to jitters, but it is one of the key limits that will prevent many traders/investors ever being successful beyond taking Avocets sweet money.

I wouldn't recommend anything to anyone fp, no-one can see into the future and one bad call loses friends and family money. I'm also full time and have been for many years. Since no-one can see into the future, then of course every projection into the future is a guess. But, there are ways of guessing and getting a reasonably high rate of good guesses. Of those good guesses, you can get a reasonably high rate of profitable trades. What's less likely is to make good profits from random guesses. People want certainty and can't have it. I think they view TA as something that those who use it successfully, claim is a guarantee. Of course that is tosh. You need years of experience to use TA wisely. When you can and the penny drops. You can buy the mountain top (comes an quote from Elder 'Come into my trading room').

Jeffrey, ask avocet. He knows what he's doing. This is a near enough a zero sum game. Bit like cards. When a child walks into a zero sum game for grown ups, you already know who's money you're taking home with you. You know who the patsy is. It becomes even more obvious when he (it's almost always a he when it's a t it oddly enough) gets angry because he can see that there are ways to play the game and he has no idea what they are and no intention of learning. He's just going to 'man it out'.

Cool, fish n chips are on Avocet!

That's a great entry. It's not often one gets 50%. But it goes to support my point, that if you buy value, you can sit back a bit and things are less stressful. The hard part if identifying value. In your example you say that you just 'felt like it'. Very often those feelings stem from quite a wide understanding on a subconcious level that has come from having a keen interest in an area. Gut feeling is not to be sniffed at (similarly gut movements!).

If I couldn't see that Stille, I'd not enter. I see the upside, but after years of doing this I've learned that 'buy low' is key to making money on the markets. You just have to find entries that represent value. For example here, many did not believe we'd see 495-500. Some openly stated that 470 was not possible. Time will tell and those that bought at 520-530 during that consolidation phase, will be wishing they'd waited, because what looked like value to them at the time, no longer looks like value and they now need a 30-40 p (7-8% rise) in the SP to hit b/e. If you do buy value, get close to where a bounce is likely, then you can be out at a handsome profit quite fast and not risk the opportunity cost of being trapped into positions for an extended period. Many of those that did 'go early' will drop their positions when the SP turns and feel happy to have exited without loss. That will be visible via TA and exploitable to those who understand what's happening. But it will give a much reduced profit to those who were not patient in their entries.

I wouldn't call it deramping, I see that as attempting to influence the price to the downside. I'm not doing that, I'm being honest about my view and my plans on trading this share. Nothing more.

If you know me, you also know that these are not random numbers. I've given up explaining myself as I get too much abuse. Being right quite often is enough for me. If you continue with your childish challenges and refuse to do the work to try to understand what I'm saying, then I will simply filter you.

I should also say that I get Melab's idea, but suspect that there will not be significant buying today going into the weekend with the Boing scandal getting more media coverage. I said before, that these things have a tendency to bleed over. Take the scandal on miles per liter in the car industry a few years back. It started with one manufacturer, but it quickly became clear that many (all?) were using the same tricks. I get Melab saying that there's often a bounce after a drop, but I suspect that there's no rush to buy here. As I said, I'll probably struggle to stop myself buying at 470 or below. But I see there is a risk that we could see 442-448, 423 (or below) or even 371. Bearing in mind those preceived (by me) risks, I really don't want to start to build a position this high up. Could end up sitting on an opportunity cost that could become quite long lasting if we move into a global recession (I believe we will) and leisure spend becomes reduced (I don't believe it's a baked in certainty that people will maintain their travelling plans if total compensation is reduced).

I'm waiting Stille, I'm hoping for 467 or lower. There are risks of falls well below that level, but FOMO will have me starting to build positions at 470 or lower.

Thanks Boyo, makes sense. Happy to have a bit of flesh around the short observations I made.