Member Info for Stupmy

LWLH, I can't really shoot you down. You're making the effort to see through the clouds and to be honest, you're guess is as good as mine. What you say, makes sense. Round numbers do have an impact on buyers and sellers (I'd caution though they have a bigger impact on PI's than serious players).

For the moment, the sellers are struggling to take it lower, but there's no evidence from my point of view that the buyers are there in sufficient force to suggest we're about to move up. Spotting the potential opportunities is helpful, but at the end of the day, if you want to be close to the turn, you have to sit and watch the price action. To say this is boring is an understatement. But getting it right makes you a lot of money. If I bought now, my interpretation of TA would already have been successful as I've been waiting from 580. But I could still be a way off whatever the low is going to be. It's better to wait for evidence of a turn.

Stanley, I don't know what's driving the price down here. If leisure spend were to decrease with disposable income in the event of a worldwide recession then the leisure industry would be hit hard I guess. Is that what is being priced in here? I don't know. Personally, without a better idea of the reasons behind the drop I find it difficult to envisage a fall below the 440 area. If that were to cede, then 405-410 looks like a support. There's also rising tl support from 28 Sept 2022/3rd Oct 2022/12th and 13th Oct 2022, which would give a support around 362 today. I'm finding it difficult to imagine the price dropping to those levels, but I don't have a good grasp on why it's dropping now so that's just wishful thinking I guess. There is also a downside gap to 423 or so and another that I have closing around 370-372 (that's a 2h chart). Personally, I'm still hoping for a bounce around here (467ish).

I've screen capped this chart to explain common phases in a cycle. It's worth considering.

https://screenrec.com/share/eIkmvMdHbR

Taken from

https://medium.com/@KayodeOla/here-are-the-14-stages-of-the-psychology-of-a-market-cycle-from-beginning-to-end-66a832a0aa06

Stille, I've been clearing the decks also in order to focus on EZJ. Like many on here I think that there will be some good profits soon. Psychologically, now is about the time that people will start to wonder (I am as it happens), what is causing this drop. We've had the 'O'Leary comments' the 'Boing Issue', the potential softening of the economy, but my guess is that many will be wondering what the 'actual' reasons are. There is still a chance that we get a fast drop as people lose faith.

At the moment MrShiny, it's still falling. EZJ has a value, it's a viable company, probably with a strong future. If the price drops much further, then the fact you sold will have been the correct decision. If Rob is right and we see the 440 area, you've really done well to sell and could consider whether it's worth buying back.

I didn't even see that Cevod, but it's almost an irony that and idiotic, ill thought out one-line post designed to make him (it's mostly 'hims') feel smug, was not even correctly spelled.

Thanks Stille, I try to look when others express a view, but I have to say that comments like "Should see it down there." irritate me as they smack of arrogance. No-one can see into the future, but if you put the effort in you can take educated guesses with an increased likelihood of making money or losing less money. It really is worth doing the homework in my view, but it has taken me years to get TA amalgamated with my more general knowledge and training in a way that it contributes effectively. It's not a case of binary decision making. Or if it is, that's pure speculation with has elevated risks. I've tried in the past to explain my ideas etc, but inevitably I'm abused by idiots who can't be bothered to have a bit of think about things. Mostly these people are the ones who use snappy one liners like 'you don't make a loss if you don't seel', these are the people that 'man it out' and 'hang tight' as they lose their money.

I do find it irritating when people come out with snappy one liners which seemed to be part of a well oiled machine that makes losers feel like they are not losing. Nonsense like that Damiansasha encourages people to lose their money. Think very carefully about nonsense one liners.

Jeffrey, I can see support around where Rob is calling. I also see that 442 ish is the 61.8% retrace of the rise from 23 Oct 2023 to 10th of Apr 2024 so I would agree that there is an area of interest there. Whether it's likely we get that low or not is another thing. Around 470 we're at the 50% retrace of the move I mentioned above. There was a bounce from the 38% retrace, which might suggest that the SP is respecting fibonacci retracement levels (but one swallow doesn't make a summer) in which case we might see a bounce around here. It doesn't look unlikely to me that we will get a bounce. That might be a bounce followed by further falls, but only time will tell

Desert, I thought about the tone of the release and 'front heavy' message, also. I have to say though that I'm not concerned and still see the 13p area as the bottom. If we were to get back close to that, I'd happily start to buy back.

Bubbles, "When the SP hits 30p, you'll have made a significant loss through selling out prematurely imv." Do you know what a loss is? Do you realise that no-one ever made a loss, by selling at a profit? You need to do some homework.

Thanks for the shoutout MSM, it does make a difference to hear that your contributions are valued by some. I haven't yet bought, but yesterday we finished on a low so I'm guessing we'll see 467-470 or lower today. I'm watching very attentively as, like many on this board, I do think that the SP will rise. Personally, I think we'll see a bounce quite soon, but catching bottoms and tops is very difficult. At some point, you have to make the decision to buy.

To be fair, sundena has been talking absolute tot and just snatching at things with no apparent rationale. He's been very wrong, very often but is confidently and requently predicting the SP to rise. I've filtered him as it was getting annoying. There was no obvious rationale to anything he was posting. I even had a look back at his posting history and he's talking a lot of tot on CCL as well.

Very true, it's always wise not to believe that something is impossible. At least I can't make a loss now!

Simpiles, thanks for the comment, I had a feeling I was trying to be too clever with that as it did looked primed for higher levels. I'm not bitter! Hope you all make good money. I won't chase this one, but do think the 13p area was the bottom and you're on for good rises. If it does happen to drop back (not looking likely) I'll buy more.

Good luck all.

Newboy, I get the BoA stuff and am grateful to the detail, but unserstood that. I was referring to sundezena's comment. I couldn't make head nor tail of what he was trying to say. Maybe an auto-texting complication or something.

What does 'doommongers' mean extracover? People who are taking a view other than your own? I have no idea what the future will bring, but believe 470 is very likely wrt to SP. On the other hand you're certain about what is going to happen in the future. Bearing in mind that 'no-one can see into the future' can you see the problem with the thesis you're putting forward?

I've cancelled my limit buys because I'm around to watch what happens around 470 if we get there. When I first suggested it was not unlikely, I was told it was impossible!!

I hope that means that you now have 3 shares Melab

I didn't understand a word of that sun?

On likely SP movement here, MKS about to report and I don't like risk over scheduled news events so I've dropped out.