Member Info for Stupmy

495 remains very likely. We could even see 470 or below. Don't forget that we are assuming that the boing issue is the cause of price softening on ticketing at Ryan Air. The market might want more reassurance that that assumption is correct.

You're right Lordeh

Here's the actual news. EZJ doesn't use Boing I believe. Maybe an opportunity coming. Not sure we're quite there on price yet, but who knows. Sorry, can't post the news reported by reuters, but it's clearly the reason for the drop and Lordeh making the boing link looks significant to me.

I was lucky enough to get back in short on that, but closed already for about 30p as I can't see any news anywhere. Nothing on IAG, That hasn't quite fullfilled the price area that interested me (495-500 I think from memory), so I've not yet bought any. I'll pay more attention though if we do see 495 area.

Can't see any news. There must be some though as that was a fast drop.

OWLS, you're comment was simply nonsense. Here it is as a reminder

"1. Don't try and time the market. 2. Don't listen to any amateur on a forum."

On the one hand you're saying there is no value in anything posted on a forum, on the other you're advising people not to time the market', that in itself is an oxymoron. You're posting advice on a forum, while simultaneously saying that any advice posted on a forum is nonsense.

Worse than the fact you're talking nonsense, you're also belittling much of the hard work being shared by some of the knowledgeable posters on this forum. I might agree, that timing the short term ups and downs of a market is very hard and very likely to lead to losses. If I do that (normally due to boredom), I make a lot of 'errors' and it's not where I make my money. I might also agree, that it's wise to know your way around bb's and markets yourself rather than make decisions based upon the advice of bb participants. If you don't understand a trade, then you should not be in it as you are very likely to end up stressed and thrown out of the trade at an inappropriate time. You need to understand it for yourself and have some conviction in it. If you don't understand, you can't have conviction, if you have no conviction you're probably going to lose money or at best it's a straight gamble

I figured it might be a weak comparison as I don't follow those 2 companies closely. Shell has done well. I can't remember where it was 10y ago though. I know it's been up and down.

Yes P, I thought it might happen so happy to have dropped some (wish I'd dropped a few more in fact, but no-one can see the future so it's often about playing likely scenarios. I took a good profit on shares, good profit on leveraged positions (all closed) and rationalised what was actually a slightly large position. I'm now in a position to buy back if I think its appropriate. I'm happy with what I've done so far.

That would be great, but looks hopelessly optimistic to me. Amazing how fast people forget the downward pressure there has been here. I guess if there was a good short squeeze we could see good upside, but I'd be hoping for 414-415 and reassess there if we see it.

Posted April 30th, my view of what might be likely "I'm wondering about a bounce to 375-380 area." That doesn't mean that I believe this move is over, but there is a real risk we'll come back off so I did rationalise.

Original Post for reference

https://screenrec.com/share/SfrgZ05wFb

That's almost ironic pheonixy. US flies up (not seen the data, but they liked it) and OCDO flies up with it!! I closed 25% at a good profit to rationalise what was too large a position built too quickly. I'll buy back happily if we drop back to 348 or below. It's not certain we will, but if this rise is not OCDO specific (I don't think it is) then it is easily possible that this will come back down simply due to market mechanics.

Thanks PC, just makes no sense to me not to consider value. As soon as you try to achieve value, you're timing.

Boyo "Selling portions on highs, topping back up on lows and offloading if it starts to fall below set limits are essential actions, especially with speculative and volatile shares. " It might even be worth adding 'with shares on the UK markets, they have not tended to rise consistently over time. Look at BP for example, good company, strong profits. I'm thinking UK markets over lets say 5-10 years. BP was around 475 10 years ago and is now 514. If you bought and held BP on the UK market over 10 years you'd have returned about 8% (not incl divis/inflationary losses, opportunity costs). If you look at US markets there are clearly some companies doing a lot better than that e.g. Chevron at 124 10 years ago, now at 160 gives a return of almost 30%. That's a facile comparison as I don't enough about these companies, but my point holds I think. The UK markets have not been ideal for buy and hold strategies over the last 10 years. Another way of looking at it could be 'timing', if you'd been sharp enough to buy BP in Nov 2020 at 191 and hold it to now at 514, you'd have returned 170% in 3 and half years. You have to be sharp enough to do it, and everything is a no-brainer in hindsight and nothing is a no brainer off the rhs of the chart. But if you can 'time', then 'time', particularly in the UK market.

Thanks Sangi, I've given it some thought and it truly is a nonsense. It's based on moderate returns on US composite markets e.g. US500. If you chart it, it looks like a no-brainer and it's undeniable that just buying and holding a tracker would have given a sensible return. However, having to skill to identify google, amazon, apple etc early and hold those would have done a lot better. Take a look at the Nikkei, if you'd bought that in 1989 then time in the market would have been very damaging to your principle indeed. It would have taken 40 yrs to get back to square one and that ignores opportunity cost and inflation (perhaps less relevant to Japan) related losses. I promise you, that if you think about it, timing the market will give you a much better return than 'time in the market', but if you can do both together with selecting the winners of the future (Buffet), then you'll probably get the best of all worlds together with some stability and safety. I just work on the timing bit and it works well for me, but I spend most of my time on the sidelines waiting for what I believe is a good opportunity. Then I comitt to it and work my positions around falls and rises to keep my entry prices in line with the SP. When it does rise, I don't have the comittment to the company itself to stay in forever, so I take my profit and drop it and wait for the next company to meet my criteria.

No he's not really Sangi, he times the market. Do you think it's random that he's been accumulating Occidental over the last 2 or 3 years. He's doing it because he thinks it has represented value over this time frame. That is timing the market. In addition he believes POO will rise in the future, that also is timing the market. What he does is 'hold forever'. But he's better able than most to recognise a stock that's worth holding forever. I'm not vain enough to think I can do that, I certainly don't have the knowledge to pick long term winners with consistency. He does, so he holds long term. But believe me, he does not enter markets randomly. He waits until he believes that they represent value and will accrue value in the future. He times the market.

In fact the 'time in the market, not timing the market' nonsense appears to have originated in 2020 or thereabouts and believe came from a fund manager. I'd imagine not a very good one. Fund managers have to drum up money for their funds and to do that, they're happy to use soundbytes for the masses, those unable to navigate the markets themselves or those with too little time to learn it/do it. It's still a nonsense but it's a soothing one if you don't know what you're doing.

Same caveats about the data being 2 days out of date, but there's more detail on Short tracker. Last reported changes on their are on Apr 30th.

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B3MBS747/

Just tried to post and it got lost somewhere, sorry if this turns up 2x

In theory shorts increased. See this link. I can't see who increased their positions. Assuming this data is 48h out of date, then that doesn't challenge your question as to whether the high volume at the end of the trading day might be short covering boyo. I guess it'll be interesting to see how tomorrow and Mon/Tues play out. I'll keep checking that. Not sure why I can't see more detail this evening, but we're now the 2nd most shorted stock on the UK market.

https://shorteurope.com/details_company.php?company=OCADO%20GROUP%20PLC&land=united_kingdom

I've just had a quick look at your posting history OWLS and so many of your posts are about timing the market (or not being able to do that despite admitting that you should have done) that you're last post on this board is truly laughable. In fact, I didn't see a post that held any value at all.

There's no such thing as 'not timing the market', even professionals do it. Everytime they believe a market represents value, it's being timed. the only thing that comes close to 'not timing the market' is a tracker fund. If you'd used one over the last 40 yrs it would have worked on the US500 and not worked on the Nikkei. You absolutely have to time your markets. Whether that is by fundamental understanding of a companies value at a specific time or using TA/charts or better still both. Do you really think the likes of Buffet randomly enter markets?

Also, if you use a tracker and it works let's say on the US500, you'd earn a lot less than the likes of buffet timing his entries on the likes of Apple.

RG, no-one can see into the future. You have to feel your way around what is happening to this market. If you're 85% down, you've been wrong for a long time so I get that you would like the views of others, but I'm not sure it'll be helpful. Maybe you need to wait longer and try not to be speculative. I'm a bit speculative (sometimes snatch at things), but if you're sitting on a big loss, you maybe need more certainty (not that there is every certainty. Why not look for a 123 breakout from a low, i.e. low, high, higher low, higher high (that last higher high is your breakout). It's not a bad indication of a possible trend change.

Assuming they're all separate trades and not part of a single trade, then that's not a fat finger event.

Looked like a short squeeze to me, very fast on high volume. Fat finger? Indication that someone is expecting news imminently and covered? Got to be worth watching it closely now.