RE: Buybacks24 Apr 2024 11:06
Spin, I get the concept, but don't agree. I think you have to be nimble, avoid losses, recognise excactly what you seem to recognise, but make decisions that lead you out of the trap. I really hope you don't believe the old (2020 I believe) addage that 'Time in the market, not timing the market' is the way to go. If you look at the US500, that's a surefire win for 'Time in the market' in as much as you would have made money by just investing and waiting. However, you'd have made more by buying Amazon or one of the other 7 Techs and that would (or should) have been about reconising value rather than passive investing. If you believe something has value today, then you're timing the market. I move from one place to another and it works just fine. But I'm not suggesting everyone would get a soft landing doing that. You need to be good at it, as with anything else. If you're not good at it, then go passiv eand buy an exchange with the belieft the past predicts the future (I have some faith in that, but it's complex). Bear in mind that if you'd bought the wrong market (let's say Nikkei) then if you'd bought in 1989, then time in the market becomes a question of 'how much time before I can get back out of the market without a paper loss). That takes no account of opportunity cost or inflation (inflation not so much a problem in Japan I guess. I think essentially, you're talking about your own experience (as am I) and that you struggle to move from one share to another. Maybe that's because you invest so much into your fundamental research that you don't have time to switch). These are just observations.
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