Member Info for stokey12

LSE03 ref 15.22 post I am not good at maths but even I can see tyhe internal inconsistency in this part of the statement. 'Labour will confirm today that key North Sea industries will be eligible for the British Jobs Bonus, with estimates that the initiative could create 29,000 UK jobs by 2050. Labour’s mission to make the Uk a clean energy superpower will support up to 50,000 jobs in Scotland by 2030.' If the iniative will create 29,000 UK jobs by 2050 then how come it will also support 50,000 jobs in Scotland by 2030. Unless I am missing something 21,000 jobs appear to being lost between 2030 and 2050.

Also the adjournment debate on Thursday is on Long Term Defence Policy. This debate only lasts for half an hour so not sure what is going to be discussed.

The list of all questions to Minsters tabled for next week can be found here https://commonsbusiness.parliament.uk/Document/82770/Pdf?subType=Standard Questions that may be of interest to people on this board are on Monday (Defence) and Wednesday (Northern Ireland)

ForrestGump ref 13.59 post I may be wrong but my recollection is that he was referring to cruise ships. I note that he has not said anything further about it and there has been no RNS,

Bubble2021 ref 13.24 post It was needed in 2021 when the then Chancellor allocated around £70m to purchase 11 boats. As I said on another thread HMG only has two speeds cral and slow.

Wyndrum ref 12.59 post I agree with you there. I also note that a number of articles has put emphaise on the possible Border Vessel upgrade programme.

LSE03 ref 12.49 post I wonder if the Austal MoU was the only deal made at the event. It certainly has received a lot of coverage.

I have just seen this on LnkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7131122477262348288/ The text of the post is

'Fantastic to be working with the Austal team, bringing aluminium design and shipbuilding into the Harland and Wolff services offer. With such a wealth of experience we are really looking forward to developing this relationship on upcoming time critical bids.'

The referrence to time critical bids raises the question whether Austral and HARL be operating on just the MoU. Also it raises the possibility that next year might see some new contracts which will help ensure HARL either meets or exceeds revenue guidance.

Bubble2021 ref 18.53 post Same as with the High Court it might be decided on the day but more likely in my opinion it will be decided later.

Lottie123 ref 16.32 post Also do not forget that Belfast recently did a mid life extension on a jack up platform so there is that recent experience.

The ballot for the right to bring in a Private Members Bill was held and the results can be found here https://www.parliament.uk/business/news/2023/november-2023/private-members-bill-ballot-16-november-2023/ Selaine Saxby the MP for North Devon is at number 6 so is guaranteed a full day of debate. Gavin Robinson is at number 16. Do we want to try and persuade either of them to bring in a bill that would assist HARL? One option is a bill to legislate that 75% of contracts for Windfarms should go to UK firms.

Lotti123 ref 11.00 post you say 'Due to HW huge upfront costs required to get up to speed and capability, i guess the best we can expect by 2025 is around 3%.' If that net margin was to turn out to be correct then that would be a significant drop from the current blended rate of circa 20%. I note that margin rate is cloer to the margin for BAB and BAe however most of their MoD work appears to be from Single Source Contracts which under the regulations caps their profit. In addition not all of HARL's revenues comes from Defence work so the non Defence work is likely to bring the margin rate up.

This article puts awith Austal bit more bones on last week's RNS on the MoU https://www.adsadvance.co.uk/austal-australia-to-pursue-shipbuilding-opportunities-in-uk-with-harland-wolff.html. I note that Border Force issued a Prior Information Notice in August in relation to the Life Extension Programme for some of the cutters the contract value was circa £6m. As will be seen from this document https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1174066/Pipeline_Report_-SCS_sign_off.csv/preview the Home Office seem to be operating on a lat minute procurement system. There are a couple of items on this document that HARL working with Austal could be bidding for.

LSE03 ref 09.10 post HMG has only two speeds crawl and slow.

Bubble2021 ref 08.31 post I am not saying that a takeover is being contemplated by either domestic or foreign I was just flagging up that the review is being conducted. I would observe that whatever the government wishes they cannot prevent an offer being made.

While looking at the Order I noticed that today at 1.30 there will be a debate on Floating Offshore Wind. It would seem from the supporting documents that it is focussed on Flaoting Offshore Wind in Wales.

This article has perked my interest https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=da45615a-7473-4124-8bfe-2ccea31e71ad&utm_source=Lexology+Daily+Newsfeed&utm_medium=HTML+email+-+Body+-+General+section&utm_campaign=Lexology+subscriber+daily+feed&utm_content=Lexology+Daily+Newsfeed+2023-11-16&utm_term=

It would seem that the Act is being reviewed with a view to make changes. The change that would possibly be ofconcern to the board is this one. 'refining and clarifying the scope of the Defence sector, following feedback that it is difficult to assess whether activities are in scope (resulting in acquisitions that do not raise national security concerns being notified);'

Any change may make HARL more susceptible to a foreign takeover.

Xenor ref 12.47 post Looking at domestic options the only alternative is as far as I know A&P. But they recently entered into an informal tie up with Cammell Laird so I am not sure that they would be in the mood to do a takeover. The issue as I see it is that IM is likely to be considered as a non core asset. So if anyone was to make a takeover for HARL, and I remain of the view that a takeover is not likely, they would then have to dispose of a non core asset.

Citizenlane ref 11.38 post thanks taking BAB first they have just restarted paying out dividends again after a four year gap so I do not see them taking out more debt to buy a company especially when you remember that they used to own Appledore. As for BAe with the other calls on their money in relation to existing contracts I do not see them wanting to add to their debt pile either.

Also in addition in both cases both Arnish and Methil are likely to be viewed as non core assets so it does not make sense to buy a company then divest three fifths of the acquired company.

Kaeren ref 11.30 I as basing that on forward earnings rather than looking at the current MCap and doing a multiple of that. Annual gross earnings on FSS will be around £100m a year. Also if HARL meets guidance for next year which is £200m then a valuation of £250m would seem a bit low.

Lottie123 can you please check my calculations