Member Info for stokey12

neverever - I assume that you have familiarised yourself with the type of construction contracts and thier features. If you had you would have the MTS Tunnel contract is a fixed price contract so any costs overrun will fall on the contractor and not SXX. This was one of the reasons as I understand it why the rate that the MTS will be progressed was lowered so that the time to complete would be achievable.

Kspine - I think that the reason for not wanting more than $3bn in senior debt may have something to do with the cost of servicing it. I note he did not rule out subordinated debt.

May I remind people on this board that Chris Fraser has an interest in shares totalling 123,747,368 which equates to 2.63% of the company. He also has options over shares totalling a further 10,289,814 with a strike price of 43.7p which expire this month. It therefore cannot be said that he did not lose out significantly by the drop in the share price last week. Also it is noted that the current share price is below the strike price for his options which expire this month so he would make an immediate loss if he was to exercise those options. In addition as he has such a large holding I doubt he would be keen on any further dilution of the share price unless unavoidable. I therefore think he would look first at obtaining subordinated debt to raise the additional funding.

DuracellAA - The advantage as I see it of a partnership with AMD over Gina Rhinehart is there is an existing agreement in place which is mutually beneficial. Plus AMD has distribution expertise and assets that could be utilised. Also I think that AMD maybe looking to target the UK and European and therefore are looking for a local partner.

AlanG - If you are right and that trade was from Friday how come the trade price was an outlier to the trading range from Friday. I am not sure that Causal is right if I am understanding his 13.50 post that the size of the trade is why it was out of range.

Avocet123 - There is always the option of a sale and leaseback of assets which would not amount to dilution.

AndyG - If you read the RNS four options were given for raising the extra capex not all would require dilution that is why I said possible but not necessarily probable.

snige - I think the people at Boulby would have a problem with us using the line as I think you will find that it is the one that they use to transport their material. So between goods from Boulby and passenger traffic I would also be concerned about capacity on the line.

AndyG - You are equating Market Cap with the value of the company. While that is a way of valuing the company it could be argued that the correct way is to value it based on the value of the assets. I have not done the calculations but there has been an increase in the value of the company but I am not sure if it is the same as the increase in the market capitalisation. Also I note that dilution is a possible not necessarily probable result of the increase in Capex. It is possible for the entire $600m to be found by subordinated debt.

AlanG - The 3miliion trade which was posted on Friday probably was not from Friday. My reason for saying that is if you look at the trade price it is higher than the range the share traded in for all of Friday. I suspect it was from Wednesday or Thursday. If I am right on that I wonder how many of the other late reported trades were not from Friday. Also what effect would there have been on the share price if the 3million trade was reported when it ocurred?

snige - The railway line you are referring to if it is the one I am thinking of has benn discussed previously. It has been discounted as it is a single track line which is used for other things. It would therefore be impractical as trains can only go one way at a time.

Scotman - I would not be at all surprise if one of the people that would not want SXX to succeed is ICL. I am not sure how much of their production is for domestic use but as SXX would be able to undercut them on price they would cease to be a viable proposition if SXX was to take hold of the domestic market.

I was listening to the presentation and I will be going back to it in a minute but the point of interest to me was what was said about them port facilities. If i heard correctly SXX will have both the Brans Sands and the RBT facilities giving them three berths with a total capacity for 30 MTPA to be used flexibily. Does nayone know what that would mean in practice.

AndyG - It gives further reassurance to lenders that a market exists for the product and also in view in view of the increased capital expenditure it would make obtaining further lending easier as we would be able to prove that the ability exists to make the repayments.

Reflecting on the RNS from yesterday there are a couple of positive things in it that gives encouragement going forward. Firstly, originally the banks were being asked to put up around $1bn with a government guarantee for the remaining $2bn. The company has subject to due dilligence raised $1.5bn. That is 50% over plan. Secondly, prior to yesterday the total of confirmed TorPs was at 5.7mtpa. It would seem that sxx is closse to concluding deals for a further 3mtpa which would bring the total for TorPs to 8.7mtpa they were looking for 6-7mtpa that is between 21 - 25% over the target. I am therefore relaxed over the ability of sxx to raise the remaining $4-600 with there being about a 10% risk of having to do this with dilution.

On who leaked the information I am inclined to discount it being the CEO. There are two reasons for this first his personal shareholding in sirius is such that he would have made a substantial loss onhis shareholding from the fall in the price. Second if I recall he had share options which would have vested this month if the share price had reached 42p I believe. So a falling share price is not what he would have wanted.

FosterE - I am not sure that you are right about share buybacks that does appear to have been the case with Lloyds whose share price has gone down ever since they announced a since completed share buyback.

spmc - Thanks for this link hopefully more people will read it and act on it.

by which time the early panic might be over and consideration of the conference call might calm things down.

It is a real mixed bag of an RNS. I only hope that the market has factored this news in. I note nothing was said about a government guarantee. I am not sure what to amke of that. I presume that HMG will provide the guarantee of $1.5bn to bring up to the $3bn of senior debt but will they provide the full $2bn that they were originally going to guarantee so as to make up most of the shortfall.

Nojy - It is equally possibly that people who have shorted the stock are closing out the position as they expect the share price to go up. The other possibility are bonds being converted to avoid being caught in a sweep up and having the shares bought at par.