Member Info for Stocktaker01

Welton (igas) currently holds that title ~ 480bopd in 2018. I'm very much hoping that the title being passed to HH is almost a forgone conclusion

we have 90 days EWT. so whilst we will be producing under EWT we will not be in "long term production" by then. I believe UKOG are awaiting flow data to submit as part of the FDP. the CPR will follow.

Cant see any trades suggesting placing shares being forward sold and with t hem due to be issued tomorrow we should be getting a TR1 revealing who the lucky holder is

For themselves. A lot said about the dilution and rightly so however for the lets say 2.5x shares in circulation compared to 2016 (by time tellurian and YA gone) SS has over 4x the stake in HH. I'm firmly of the opinion that the MCAP and even the SP would be well below the current level had we only held 20% HH at this stage. It's fair to say there is a lot riding on the results of this test. If we have big flows - even if we don't get a big rise in SP initially, this will give the market big confidence again in UKOG.

its a fair point. How did they not have a better idea before EWT

agree jadam, shareholders need an update. last communication was EWT Q4. Clearly that is not going to happen so they just need to clear up when it is going to happen

large sell being worked in background for this to fall today

agree with that Tony, yet the EA were comfortable enough to allow UKOG to flare off during testing. All of the requirements of a production permit and lead times for equipment would have been known before drilling HH2z. now all of a sudden SS looking to squeeze Alba on their share and get to production ASAP. Its like someone lit a fire under his ass (about time some might say). I'm surmising that he now thinks he has more oil to flow (and gas to flare/ utilise) then previously thought. We'll see.

Agree with that also SW, but I'm wondering why that is. I'm of the belief that they think the flows are such that they will quickly run out the volumes permitted under the EWT (if allowed to flow at full potential) and then there's the CPR. The Production licence is required to make the CPR legitimate. IMO. Interesting times the next 6 month for UKOG.

They have permission to flare off gas throughout the drilling and testing of 6 wells but now all of a sudden the need to fast track the utilisation equipment. Why?

Expecting higher volumes than previously thought and need to keep the EA/OGA onside?

leewayne it's not like. That is exactly what they are doing and they have said as much. Looks like SS has other ideas and is looking to pressure them into relinquishing some of their share. The rush to get the gas utilisation equipment also intrigues me. I can only think they are expecting more gas than previously thought and with it oil!

It's possible that UKOG could have waited for flow tests before taking this move, however by then Alba would have been in the driving seat because the potential of the HH portland would be a known entity. It strikes me that SS has done this to force the issue with Alba before results are known in a move to gain even more of HH "on the cheap." This has been a clear strategy for the last few years. What "on the cheap" means and to what extent / if at all we will only know with the results and further development beyond.

That is all. Q1 for WN EWT me thinks. Good buy at these levels

I'll hazard that they would have known the lead time on the equipment and just figured as penguins highlights there's no rush because we'll be flaring it off during testing. But now they decide they need to get the equipment quick smart ( and can do this by paying a premium).

Also, can't see the OGA withholding licence if the EA have agreed it can be flared off unless the expected volumes have increased substantially. Time will tell. Shares to become live on the 5th so will be interesting to see if a TR1 comes and who the lucky holder is!

Good info penguins re: gas. Thanks for that. Exactly ... what has changed wrt the GAS! I can only think expected volumes!

No confusion,just why all of a sudden is there a need to accelerate the utilisation instead of just flaring it off?

well the RNS states:

In this respect, the Company has also submitted a proposal to its HHDL partners to use part of the Proceeds to fully fund their current cash call obligations in return for a commensurate dilution of their holding in HHDL.

Perhaps I'm just clutching straws trying to find a positive in this mornings RNS, But they knew they had gas before so unless the they have know realised something has changed with the gas volumes why the urgently raise to utilise the gas. I'm thinking it s a case of we're gonna need a bigger boat - what with the storage tanks arriving too!

to part answer my own query - this from the IEA

"For new fields, operators should aim to develop plans to use or conserve all the field's associated gas without routine flaring. At existing oil fields, operators are asked to eliminate routine flaring when it is economically viable as soon as possible, and no later than 2030"

Perhaps UKOG have realised potentially large flows already and with it large gas volumes so are looking to stay on the right side of the EA / OGA

Be Interesting to see if that tr1 comes or if. Sufficient shares are forward sold negating the requirement. A bit cloak and dagger but we never saw one for tellurian