Member Info for stockdale

Almost anyone selling now would be at a loss. The only ones not losing would be those who bought the placing of June 2016 around 0.58p to 0.6p. Even they would be losing as they could have easily got over 2p last year and should do so in the near future as well.

Any company looking to get involved will need to know the full facts. The permits being missing and with no apparent resolution to them will be a major factor in the SR not ending at this time. If it were to end that would possibly be more concerning as prospective interested parties would have then withdrawn with no clear direction for AST visible to them. No company will go ahead with investing money into a gas field tied up in bureaucracy to such an extent that there doesn't appear to be an end in sight. With the SR still in progress that means the interested parties still consider there is an end in sight worth their while.

According the Ascent website the total shares in issue is: 2,268,810,686. Therefore 2p equates to £45.376 million. The current SP of 0.78p equates to an MCap of just £17.7 million.

It would if they could get this price for the company. Wouldn't be accepted by the AST BoD though or the shareholders.

Part of the point of the Strategic Review is to get a company with financing for the wells. The faster the wells can be reopened the more gas can be produced. INA may not be interested in the IPPC as they have a plant at Molve in Croatia. However they may still be interested as their plant at Molve may not have the capacity to deal with their own gas and the gas from PG10, PG11a and further reopened Petisovci wells. They may therefore still be interested in the IPPC for a plant in Slovenia.

Thanks FX. Your scenario makes me feel a bit better. Mine is depressing, but all too real in the current political climate.

Old Chinese proverb: Green light - go. Red light - go around it.

The INA route is getting around the Russian problem as it would indeed be very difficult to go against them. Currently INA are providing a weak solution in that AST can sell small quantities to them that can currently be produced. Hopefully they will also be involved through the Strategic Review to get things moving more quickly.

Hope you're right FX. It would be a typical Colin lateral thinking.

The reason for the lack of urgency now? It would seem the Russian government has made it very good for Slovenia to buy from them under the recently extended import contract. The Russians would also emphasize the benefit of keeping the Petisovci gas under ground for Slovenia's future energy security. And I'm sure the Russians made it personally worthwhile for individual politicians who make the decisions. The consequence of that would not be good for Ascent Resources. Some would not wish to think of that as a possible scenario but doing just that has allowed Colin to find the alternative route of selling to INA. Maybe Colin is not as bad as some may think. After all the Russians are a major adversary and have considerable influence.

It would certainly be about time. I feel unlikely though. Wednesday is IPPC committee day. The Strategic Review appears to be still ongoing and the IPPC being approved (again) would be a significant part of the review for any company interested.The longer this goes on the more in limbo I feel this share is becoming. That is clear from the SP where some are selling even at the current price as they have lost confidence. Those hanging on, well done, let's hope Colin's silence is broken with good news in the near future. What more can be said?

Of course INA is receiving untreated gas directly which they are treating in their own processing plant. So they may be interested in AST not getting the Permit. But for the Petisovci field to be properly developed the Permit is really needed. Therefore INA could be interested if they wished to join AST as a partner within the Strategic Review. Maybe the potential complexity of the possible arrangements is leading to the extended delay in getting the Strategic Review finalised.

The IPPC is subject to approval by the Slovenian government. However the Croatians in the form of INA would be interested in as much as they are interested in the Strategic Review. The approval or otherwise of the IPPC would make the Slovenian government's future policy clearer concerning the gas extraction from the Petisovci gas field. So in an indirect way the Croatians would be interested.

There would also be general interest as production from the Petisovci field would go into the gas grid to supply all the countries in the region, including Croatia, once the processing plant has been constructed for which the IPPC is needed.

Considering the current demise of the SP I think Colin would actually appreciate the civility of the email from obone. A lighter tone may well have sounded sarcastic. Colin understands investors are annoyed.

Good questions obone. The answers haven't really helped as the crucial points you raise haven't been answered apart from a general tone of hope and aspiration. The main positives are that he is still there, doing stuff and that there is a general timetable and plan in place. The timetable and plan however have to be completed by an external authority, that being the Slovenian government. One might think they would wish to get access to their own gas but seem more concerned with getting all the bureaucracy completed in as thorough a way as possible. We can only hope this is coming to a successful conclusion and Colin's gentle persuasion is getting things completed as quickly as the Slovenian bureaucracy is able to. One other benefit: I have use that word bureaucracy so many times now I can spell it without googling.

I think any company looking to come in would require a guaranteed position from the Slovenian government. Not having the IPPC could leave them open to procrastinated delays in being able to get this gas field opened up, as has happened. The IPPC being granted and, preferably, permits for other wells as well would give them that reliability in forward planning and would effectively be that guaranteed position.

Objective of the SR as explained in Colin's interview of 27th April:

https://www.ascentresources.co.uk/2018/04/27/ascent-resources-ast-outlines-the-strategy-review-and-what-it-means/.

That was nearly 3 months ago. Apparently Colin says they keep share holders as updated as possible. The SP would indicate otherwise.

Their best option would be a partner who brings in funds to open up the other wells. An outright buyout would put Colin out of a job and one less job for Clive. It would also mess up their option arrangements as they would be unlikely to get as good a deal as they would if they kept AST going with new wells being opened up and the IPPC coming along. However it also depends on what any new partner would want out of the deal.

Is AST looking for an investment partner or an outright sale of the company?

Not relevant here then.

Maybe not. Would be surprising to get this SP back to life again.