Member Info for stockdale

Colin is an accountant not an expert on market reaction. An accountant would se an SP of 3p equalling a MCap of less than £70 million with a gas field valuation of about £200 million, as he saw it. Market reaction, however, is more extreme in it's reaction. The current SP is that of a company on the virge of going under. It will move up sharply with confidence and sentiment.

I was being cautious EC. I find it a a stretch to think that 3p can be achieved. It's only happened recently when the SP was pushed up briefly at the end of January 2017 over just 3 market days.

Logically there is no reason for the Permits not to arrive. However when you involve politics multiple reasons suddenly arise. Politics doesn't often follow logic. It should happen but the amount of time taken so far to reinstate the original IPPC permit when it was withdrawn on the same day the Court received the appeal in 2016 is not helping sentiment here.

The SP is dependent on investor sentiment and confidence in the company managing to get the gas out of the ground and sell it to the gas market. The amount of time taken so far has increased investor scepticism. In time that has led to the gradual fall in the SP until it has reached a level equivalent to where it was when Henderson were necessary to ensure the continuation of AST and when the IPPC was withdrawn under appeal, so at the point of going under completely. Any decent deal arranged by Colin should ensure the SP rises to around 1.3p to 1.6p and the resulting improved confidence may well improve sentiment and, with AIM, improved sentiment means a higher SP and quite possibly back up above 2p.

Reasons for low SP?

1. Reliance on PG10 with PG11a intermittent?
2. BoD playing it wrong?
3. Russian interference?
4. Attacks on Twitter and forums?

I would say an imperfect storm of all 4.

True to say the IPPC application has been ongoing for over 4 years but it had been granted and then removed in 2016. They should redefine the word tantalizing.

We have also had vexatious attacks (in the word of the Slovenian Court) on Twitter and here over many months resulting in poor sentiment leading to a gradual sell off from the good news in November of the removal of the appellant (reso?) and the confirmation of the INA contract. AIM runs on sentiment. Bad sentiment equals poor SP.

Colin has said there has been substantial interest. Easy to extrapolate that to there being offers in place. We don't know that. In the same way we don't know the constant accusations from New_2 to be anything other than pure speculation based on frustration over a lack of knowledge over his investment.

What is happening here is a confidential building of an arrangement which should be beneficial to us. We can only hope it results in a genuine arrangement which does benefit us. After the Court threw out the IPPC in 2016 the INA contract, arranged by Colin, went a small part way to side stepping the problem. Let's hope the present discussions do even better.

The likes of reso and his friends already know things are happening. We wouldn't them to know too much would we? They are the enemy here.

The boastful predictions of reso over many months (in fact years) are either lucky guesses or from someone with inside information from the government where decision makers are not wanting a UK company involved here. They appear very much to be the appellant who would have not only used the legal system but social media and forums as well. They seem well educated and well capable of making and continuing arguments here and elsewhere. The government has gone against the prosperity of their own people by delaying the Permits and generally obstructing the production of gas from their own field. Who else would have predicted that as to how this would play out?

The rest of us can only hope Colin continues to work to get this gas out of the ground for the benefit of Slovenian citizens. Clearly people like reso are working against the benefit of people in that country and more than likely for their own benefit where Russia is looking favourably on those who benefit Russia and not Slovenia. We've seen it all before in Crimea, part of Ukraine now occupied by Russia under the pretext that most of the people there wanted it.

Still kicking people when they're down eh reso? Well done.

Yet another Wednesday passed with no IPPC. They've had since November when the Court threw out the appeal. The Permit was withdrawn immediately in 2016 on the day when the appeal was made to the Court. After 8 months from the appeal being thrown out the Permit has yet to be reinstated. Another route has to be found and I believe Colin's meetings in Budapest and the Strategic Review are all with that in mind. We can only hope his work with this has a reward. As TPT has said the interested parties have every reason to want this to succeed. For those slating Colin I would suggest they stop doing so if they have an investment here. If you don't have an investment here then mind your own business.

No need to get anal.

That's the kind of lateral thinking that, hopefully, Colin is using to deal with this problem. By going to Hungary and dealing with INA in Croatia he is getting around the Slovenian legal and political issues. Maybe.

SP currently at around 0.78p. The market needs something positive to move this up. Really positive.

I think you did.

Hence my suspicions of this not being dealt with in a 'timely manner', as our legal friends might say.

AST is definitely hungry. I think you mean Hungary.

Quote: "The reason given by the Court for this decision is that, after the original application was made in June 2014, the relevant law was changed and the process that was followed did not accord to the new law. This is despite the new law explicitly stating that any applications submitted (but not yet resolved) prior to the effective date for the new law should be pursued exclusively under the old rules.

In summary the decision is not based on any objections to the Petisovci project but rather the permit application process. It is clear to the Company and its advisers that the decision of the Court is directly contrary to Slovenian law."

Clive Carver Quote: "This decision is contrary to all legal opinions received by the Company and the explicit provisions of the prevailing law. Additionally, we believe it goes against common sense and the overriding interests of the Slovenian state. Despite this unexpected ruling we remain confident that over time the clear national interests of the Slovenian economy of having its own reliable supply of gas will prevail and that the laws of the land will be followed."

Not that that helps us one bit now.

That's my point Oil2. There are positives. They are being ignored with this current SP.

My previous post at 14:16 shows how someone or some organisation has been cleverly using the legal and political system to prevent the IPPC being issue, or reissued. Some politicians necessary to the decision making process here have been 'influenced' to delay or prevent this happening.

Colin has been using the softly softly approached to get around such problems without antagonising individuals. Whether that succeeds or not is yet to be seen. Or maybe a more hardball legal approach may be needed to push the Permits through and get this moving.

CMG, the new law specifically stated that any Permit passed under the old law could continue. AST's Permit had already been issued under the old law. That was not abided by in this case.