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The world global reserves of oil is diminishing. In time that will increase the oil price. That has been the mover of the Ithaca SP recently. Producing oil from Rosebank and the opening of Jackdaw (mainly gas) would place the UK back in the position of a producer / exporter as we were in the 1980s. The SP had more than doubled recently since early 2025. So we should see a significant rise over the next weeks and months, although indeterminate in the timing. At around 225p it would seem we've dropped to a new low, although I misjudged the amount of the fall from the recent highs of 288p.

The pressure is building on Miliband. He's been impervious to it up till now. Maybe the pressure could succeed.

Does this mean Miliband has given the go ahead for Rosebank? Otherwise I'm not sure it's too important. Diplomatic persuasion from Norway?

AI answer:

The recent drop in Ithaca Energy’s share price is largely driven by broader energy-sector sentiment rather than an immediate risk to its dividends. Management has reaffirmed its 2026 dividend commitment, with current payouts actually expected to land at the upper end of guidance, exceeding \(\$500\) million. The stability of their dividend policy is supported by the following factors: Dividend Policy: Ithaca pays dividends based on a percentage of post-tax cash flow from operations (CFFO) rather than net accounting profits. The company revised its distribution framework upward to 20% to 35% of CFFO, with a firm 30% commitment for 2026.Strong Cash Flow: The company's Q1 2026 update reported a strong cash generation of \(\$400\) million from operations. Robust Hedging: Ithaca has a strategic hedging program in place, protecting its cash flows into 2028 and mitigating risks from weaker commodity prices.Upcoming Distributions: Following a latest dividend declaration of 9.06p (paid mid-April 2026), the company continues to project total distributions of \(\$470\) million to \(\$520\) million for the full year. Despite the share price drop, the dividend yield remains highly attractive for income investors.

So AI thinks Ithaca remains a good income stock.

Articles about this are upbeat about the company. The company itself is saying it: "further strengthens our financial position and flexibility, optimising our capital structure and providing additional liquidity to pursue growth opportunities."

All very nice. But the company is hardly going to put a bad light on the move.

One concern I have is that Senior Notes have priority for creditors in the event of bankruptcy. Maybe that has spooked the market as the fall in the SP is more than would be expected on the fairly small fall in the oil price. The ongoing intransigence of Miliband must also be causing concern.

They will have to remove or sideline Miliband for it to happen.

Blair is one of the few who could persuade Starmer to push Miliband in to giving Rosebank and Jackdaw the go ahead. It may end up with Miliband getting pushed out. I really hope so. Ideology taken to this level is absurd. Norway is pumping the same North Sea oil and we are buying it from them, at a significant mark up on the price.

It is rather strange. Brent futures have dropped to $93. Still quite high for such a large drop in the Ithaca SP. Looks like a combination of Miliband intransigence and an expectation that the oil price will fall further with the opening of the Strait of Homuz. The second part is probably less likely than the first part. Iran is digging in and has been inserting mines with small boats and hovercraft. Miliband is weirdly ideological and will take us all down and doesn't look likely to change, unless he's persuaded by others. Certainly caught me out as I was buying in at higher prices as it dropped. Hindsight eh?

Do't know why that posted twice. I didn't type it twice. 🤔

Turns out there was a significant drop of the oil price after the close on Friday. Just showing up now on Investing.com. The forward price has changed from July to August and it would seem the prediction is for a price drop to the mid 90s. That's still quite high. Could explain the significant drop of the ITH SP on Friday. Any agreement with Iran is hanging on a thread though. The IRGC want to fight on and is split from the leadership the U.S. are negotiating with. The U.S. had been threatening restarting the bombing. So who knows the direction of movement of this SP tomorrow? A possible bounce after the excessive selling as the oil price is still quite high? Or a continued drop?

Turns out there was a significant drop of the oil price after the close on Friday. Just showing up now on Investing.com. The forward price has changed from July to August and it would seem the prediction is for a price drop to the mid 90s. That's still quite high. Could explain the significant drop of the ITH SP on Friday. Any agreement with Iran is hanging on a thread though. The IRGC want to fight on and is split from the leadership the U.S. are negotiating with. The U.S. had been threatening restarting the bombing. So who knows the direction of movement of this SP tomorrow? A possible bounce after the excessive selling as the oil price is still quite high? Or a continued drop?

Although I see the oil price has dropped a bit since midday and is now $103 on Brent futures on Investing.com.

I also bought on the way down. Annoyed that I started too soon as I was not expecting such a significant drop with a fairly stable oil price. Oh well, I have more shares now but not as many as I could have.

With hindsight £2.85 was a good point to collect Profits. With hindsight. But the selling was still happening below £2.50. That is not a good time. Closing around £2.43 this share should be primed for a revival on Tuesday, assuming there are no other reasons for the drop. Hence my original question.

It might help if you didn't start by being patronising. I do watch the news. I recall Labour won an election two years ago. Any Tory King's Speech reply is irrelevant now. They don't have the votes. Labour are in power and have been for almost two years. They are squashing North Sea oil and gas to a dangerous extent for our country. I don't get involved in adversary politics in a share forum except where it directly effects the share. The Labour government are directly effecting it. The Tories can't.

So not effected by this move by the Chancellor? Maybe just the market jumping to a conclusion?

Thanks for the Telegraph article. Energy is being strangled in Britain. That damages industry and increases domestic costs as well. Companies will either find ways around the increased cost, become less profitable and may go under or move out of Britain completely. The sooner Reform get in to government the better. I noticed a small quote from Richard Tice in the article. Otherwise the last person out please turn off the lights, if they still have power to be on.

All taxes combined amount to 78%. That's already been the case for some time. I don't believe there are any further taxes proposed. It would be economc suicide for the government to do so.

Why the sudden share price drop over the last couple of days? The oil price has fallen a bit but not to the extent warranting this fall in the SP. The Chancellor is talking about bringing forward dealing with oil and gas profits being channeled through foreign branches. Could that have spooked the market? Or is it just speculation that the oil price will fall further?

If the U.S. can manage the movement of tankers and other ships without undue harassment from Iran then that could result in a drop in the oil price but it takes several weeks for ships to get to destinations for the flow of oil to resume properly.

Hopefully ITH can benefit from the pressure being put on Miliband to approve Jackdaw and Rosebank but he is ideologically stubborn