Member Info for steward1

I think he knows something. Don't know if it's true but someone has said in the past that AP knows him.

I agree that AP will keep this going for as long as he can - don't think that he's out of options yet AND I think he's almost there or thereabouts in making VAST profitable. There's potential for AP to surprise the market to the upside here - just needs to get a financing deal over the line and to reach that profit tipping point.

Bad news is well priced in. Market Cap dropped too far. Any piece of half-decent news will see the sp rocket.

Doesn't take many consecutive buys to get this moving!

Invest - fair points. The silence works both ways and I come back to the point that if the Swiss have walked away then AP would have been obliged to tell the market. We haven't heard so... well, who knows!!

VAST's position must be quite different to the situation when we first heard that the Swiss were interested. My take is that they're now in a healthier shape, especially after the BP reorganisation but I accept the point that AP has an uncanny habit of disappointing the market! I'm hoping that AP is looking for a better deal.

If I remember rightly, the security for the existing debt has a complicated structure and, for me, if the lenders need to go after that then there's a possibility that there'll be legal wrangling for months, if not years... in the meantime, VAST moves into profit and profit growth... and it ends up not being an issue. If anything, AP does seem to have the ability to kick the can down the road!

AP tends to leave announcements as late as possible, I think?

If you were in his shoes, what would you do? If things are generally improving and VAST is now profitable, would you hold off as long as possible on the Swiss deal in the hope of better terms or, perhaps, needing less funding... perhaps, they're already set in stone.

I think that there's some potential here for a good surprise - if AP/VAST have been doing a good job for the Taj partners, could there be some scope for them to offer a deal/take a stake/provide funding. Looking at that last placing with the extras of the warrants at 0.4p, I think there is some confidence about a very healthy recovery in the next year.

There's a minute chance... a very long shot... that the diamond situation will be resolved in the next couple of weeks.

The other point I didn't mention is that we've got someone who has been building a healthy stake in VAST for over a year and is still adding... this is usually very good news.

The sp has priced in all sorts of bad news and scenarios. Could shareholders lose everything - I guess that there's a possibility but, for me, that's not one of the most likely scenarios. And I'm thinking that any scenario that includes an attempt to wrestle any assets used as security could take a long time in the courts. In the meantime, VAST continues its recovery.

The question is whether AP has done enough to get the Swiss deal over the line - getting BP to sustained profitability, extending the licence, securing additional income from other projects, etc. My guess is that he is there or there abouts.

This is also an extreme scenario, I know, but if shareholders needed to heavily diluted to raise all the funds to cover the essential debt, existing shareholders would be heavily diluted but I'd suggest that the market cap would multiply several times... a scenario where existing shareholders hold 20% of a company valued at £20-30 million or more would, for me, be a good outcome and would be a few hundred per cent increase from here.

This isn't for widows or orphans - high risk but very high reward.

Hi Twenteen - the diamonds would be a significant bonus but let's put that to one side. I think a big issue is the lack of transparency and meaningful communication from AP. The critical thing just now is bringing the Swiss financiers on board and the last communication was positive. We haven't heard anything different so I can only assume that this is still progressing to plan. We've not had any BP production figures for Q2 and I suspect that this is due to the reorganisation that has been ongoing but the expectation is that this will be of significant benefit to the operations. The extension of the licence was very positive!

As for the other projects, it really is difficult to say and we're left doing our own sums to work out if VAST is now profitable. My guess is that they're almost there.

My own outlook on this is exactly that - 'they're almost there' and if they can get the Swiss deal over the line then the sp should rocket. Before anyone else says it, they've been almost there for a while now! There's a tipping point that is very close but it could all end in tears!

Definitely very high risk here but, if the Swiss have decided to walk away then we would have heard... AP could not withhold that information.

Jones adding again is good news... the licence extension was good news... the fact that they're recruiting was also good news.

I'm hopeful!

It would be helpful to ask if LB has had any approaches of interest from any 3rd party.

I think some people have thought that there would be a 10 bagger on the news and have sold because they've been underwhelmed... a wee bit of a vicious cycle going on... price drops, more sell, etc. The trading will settle and the sp will climb again and those same people will realise that they sold too soon. Fear is a terrible thing and all the derampers are playing on that - it's a psychological battle more than anything!

LB has known exactly what they've got here for weeks, if not months. I think she knows exactly what the feasibility study says and that's why she's fast-tracking everything. She has confirmed in the RNS and by her actions that it is commercial. If it wasn't commercial, they would be walking away.

Of course, they will need money (duh!) and they're now in a much stronger position to negotiate a JV (my preferred route). LB's phone will be busy for a few days, I suspect.

And don't forget - the price of helium is expected to rise. Some experts think that it will double.

What's not to like!!

A week is a long time in the markets and this time next week, the world will look way different to how it looks now - EWT news will be out and the sp will be sitting much, much higher!

Thanks for the summary - not encouraging reading. This could turn into a drain on HE1's finance and resource. No wonder the market doesn't like it!

ASI, despite my rantings at yesterday's car crash, I'm of the same mind as yourself. I expect the sp to be way higher than it is when we get the next batch of news - only days away. Longer term, this still looks very healthy indeed.

Chesh - Panmure Liberum price target was 5.33p giving a MC of around £290m prior to this morning's news. Revised target now 3.44p giving a MC of around £180m.

Do the sums - LB and her team has wiped off £100m give or take from the potential MC because of that deal!

Panmure Liberum have dropped their price target this morning as a result of the deal!

And one wonders, what other gems they've got up their sleeves which are going to destroy shareholder value!

Yes, the issue for me is the timing of this deal and the timing of the announcement - either someone is incompetent or they're being manipulated.

The deal might be OK but was it essential, necessary or even urgent... as they're implying... just when they're releasing the biggest news that they've had to date. The market clearly doesn't like it. That £6m deal has wiped 10's of millions off the market cap. I would've thought that Tanzania would have been big enough rather than chasing down deals which are tiny in comparison.

Sounds to me like LB and her top team are pushovers - doesn't bode well for future negotiations or deals. Strategically, this has been a disaster of a day!

I think the Finance guy is not up to the job. Came over as desperate in that last Q&A. Doesn't he realise what they are sitting on? The sp could have multiplied this morning if the one RNS had been issued. We could have been sitting in the 3's with a market cap of £160m but here we are with a market cap of £80m all because of a deal for £6.43m!!!!

Our Lorna needs to replace whoever is advising her!

And if they need funding, the better route for all concerned is to come direct to shareholders. Plenty folk here would have happily paid way more than 1.09!

I expect the sp to recover from here but this morning's communications have been a disaster.

Very disappointed that they announced the fundraise today and, again, at a very, very poor price... what on earth are they playing at??? I'm afraid that this type of decision-making is very poor and doesn't bode well for the future... no matter what the test results are.