Member Info for steward1

It's not a scam but I've clearly read the signals wrong about the need for cash. I'm now expecting a disappointing BP production report plus did you spot that AP didn't mention the diamonds in the RNS so I think they're not currently in the mix for sorting out the debt.

AP is his own worst enemy - I watched the last interview again last night (for the 2nd time) and couldn't decide whether he was frustrated or desperate. I picked up on a couple of things that I didn't the first time round... especially, the comments about ensuring the company survives. He puts that ahead of shareholder's (i.e. owner's) needs... he's fundamentally got that wrong. The survival of the company cannot come at any cost! If he provides another disappointing update, he cannot carry on making a loss!

I'd like to see AP do an interview today and I'd like the interviewer to ask him when he got the update that the Attorney General had agreed the settlement. If it was not last week but before then he definitely has manipulated us. If it was last week then I'd let the dilution pass... except that he really needs to get his finger out and deliver!

Very disappointing!

Wouldn't be at all surprised to get an RNS saying 'noting the share price movement and market speculation. JV talks underway.'

Market cap is still only a measly £3m! Multi-bag recovery on its way!

Seems clear now that Alpha and co will have been kept up to date with the negotiations in Zim and that's why they're happy to support AP. Can't see any action being taken by them or anyone else and it would be good to hear officially at some stage that they're still supporting him. Now, we need AP to deliver.

I appreciate that the market doesn't quite work this way but the market cap should be back to £10m or so (4 x bag). Add in positive news from BP and/or any of the other projects plus confirmation of no further dilution and we could easily be heading to £20m-£30m.

Looking further ahead, what market cap would you place on VAST if there was no debt and if BP and the other projects were running profitably?

Good points, Sandy.

Sandy - yes, pragmatic solutions are usually the best. I wonder, though, if AP is looking for compensation/settlement for all those years that the diamonds have been 'locked away'. This is a hugely sensitive issue for the Zim authorities and one can't help thinking that the Zim institutions don't see eye to eye with each other (hence the bank didn't comply with the last court order)... so I think that this could still take a while to resolve completely, if at all. Depends whether the AG has negotiated with the bank or is he imposing the settlement on them? Still not holding my breath on this though!

If AP does get any sort of settlement then I think it will count massively to restoring his credibility.

Whilst it is definitely good news that some progress has been made, the RNS needs some deciphering. I'm assuming that the reference to that RNS means that the settlement will take care of that debt... who knows! Or is it that the diamonds are now the collateral against that debt... doubt it.

Personally, the sp is suffering from an almost universal lack of trust in AP and what he has got to say. It surprises me that people like AP, who I take to be sensible, intelligent people, don't recognise that they're a big part of the issue and step aside... but he must believe that he's turning this around. I just don't buy the whole lifestyle company conspiracy.

Anyway, I guess for most holders, this morning's RNS is a bonus. I'm looking forward to the next update on BP and other projects - coming soon!

I reckon Jones may have had some inside info. A positive resolution of the diamonds, Alpha debt cleared, vastly improved BP operations, new offtakes plus additional sources of revenue equals a massive re-rating!

Of course he has to add the last sentence... look at the history of this issue. The nomad would have insisted on it.

I'm going to take the RNS as read. AP will have had to provide some evidence to the nomad that what he has said is correct. I'm not cynical enough about AP to suggest that it's a lie or only motivated by a desire to do another dilution but it's raised questions about whether the pack of diamonds is being returned or if there's going to be a cash settlement or maybe something possibly related to re-starting operations in Zim (which would be a major prize!).

Bottom line is that it shows progress and the sp should respond appropriately.

As someone else has highlighted, VAST has been in jeopardy for at least 18 months... the current situation is not new except that Alpha took one small step towards recovering its money.

I appreciate that AP has his detractors here but, if you were in his situation, would you not be doing exactly what he is doing/has done?

To get a new finance arrangement, he needs to prove that BP and VAST as a whole is now profitable.

Having made previous improvements at BP, the reorganisation (i.e. reducing the workforce by half) would have been done with the benefit of those improvements and with the goal of making profit based on what the reduced workforce could produce. Unless AP is a complete idiot (and I accept some here don't have high regard for him), he wouldn't have reorganised with the goal of losing money! Lower costs and mining a higher grade, I think, now makes it profitable (AIMHO).

I'm optimistic that he's got a good chance of avoiding disaster and getting a deal before Alpha lose patience.

Loyaltrader - still very risky, yes, but, for me, it's looking interesting and possible that AP has turned this around. I'm taking Warren Buffet's advice!

ASI - speculation on my part but based on some loose logic (see previous posts).

Loyaltrader - I agree up to a point. But he's slashed costs at BP 2 or 3 months ago and is now mining higher quality. His lenders are supportive and even if they were to take action, it would be against the holder of the collateral (who is also supportive and a shareholder) and not VAST... it would take some time (months or more) for it to impact on VAST operations... meantime, he consolidates output from BP. So he has bought time at a point when BP is generating positive cashflow.

Risk/reward here is very, very attractive - market cap is not even £2m. It will rocket on positive news.

There is certainly a sense of doom and gloom amongst some. I've got a different view - all the bad news has been priced in and I'm fairly confident that AP has turned BP into a cash generating asset which, in turn, leads me to think that there will be a new finance deal. He said that production figures will follow later this month, that new offtake deals are being discussed with Mercuria and he has hinted at other opportunities. In addition, he has provided enough reassurance for me that no-one will be taking any action to recover any debts, anytime soon.

Of course, he could be lying and I'll look like a complete idiot but I reckon AP is doing his utmost to get this turned round. And I expect to hear that Mr Jones has added again!

ASI - yes, the lack of financial info is criminal and it's impossible to say anything with any certainty but looking at it from a different angle might give some clues.

AP has had 3 fundraises so far this year - the 1st two, on average might have been burnt through at £300K per month over roughly 6 months so one might assume that VAST has had a monthly shortfall of £300K. The 3rd fundraise of £600K was done on 15th July... we're almost 3 months from then so the burn rate might be around £200K per month... if you then make some allowance for the disruption of the BP reorganisation, a possible limit in output at least for part of Q2 and possibly Q3, one might assume that a good chunk of the £600K would have been used in July/Aug. On the plus side, make some allowance for the savings at BP, which should now be coming through, and possible revenue from elsewhere.

Very rough, finger in the air stuff here but this is where I come the conclusion that AP has turned this around.

AP only highlighted the possible need for cash to cover the Hanes project and has dealt with this by other means. He made no mention of any other short term needs... of course, there is still the Alpha situation to resolve but, if AP has made the scale of improvement to get cash flowing from BP, then this is looking like he can get that sorted and possibly get additional funding to tap into more revenue streams.

Perhaps, my glasses are too rose-tinted but I'm hoping for/expecting a positive update later in the month.

AIMHO!

The real story is the turnaround at BP and the other sources of revenue AP has somehow managed to secure.

VAST's lenders are supportive so any action to call in the debt is not expected. There is also a buffer with the collateral used and the owner of that collateral is also supportive and isn't taking any action against VAST.

BP's costs have been slashed massively and they're now mining higher grade... should be cashflow positive plus there's negotiations for new offtake arrangements... this is the key to VAST's future!

Limited short term working capital need has been dealt with. AP seems to have the goodwill of lenders/partners and to have bought sufficient time to get this turned around.

I reckon that we'll get a full update later in the month with production figs from BP for Q2 and Q3 plus a new finance deal. AIMHO.

Clearly, they're not paying in shares or else there would've been a dilution!!

Looks like there's no dilution needed for this short-term gap. Creditors appear to be supportive.

Has AP managed to turn this around?