Member Info for SteveV

Quite agree. A lot of aim stocks run out of money, suffer mass dilution to keep raising funds, before they achieve their ambition.
NCYT have.... LOADS OF MONEY...No problem funding the next leg of the journey.

Hey Hydr31, yes I agree trying to value a share of this nature is incredibly difficult/impossible, especially when you plump for one metric that you think might sound reasonable only to use the same thing with comparable companies, then find it makes no sense at all.
That's why I highlighted using your 1.5 x cash method and then comparing to ODX, and AVACTA. Doesn't make any sense at all. The 1.5 x cash came as you say from a PI world interview(it was with Richard Leonard). But at the time he was at a loss as much as we all were to find a suitable way to make a valuation.

The main problem, as we all know, is trying to predict how revenues for NCYT will , continue to rise, fall off a cliff, or, settle down to something consistent and predictable.

The huge plus for NCYT is that they ARE making a lot of money. They have been in the right place at the right time to capitalise on the COVID crisis which I believe has kick started their ambition to be at the forefront of a burgeoning diagnostics growth industry.

They have big plans to become a major diagnostics business post COVID. They have the everything in place now AND all the resources to make it happen.

This COULD be the beginings of something big!

Hey Hydr31,
Interesting your choice of valuation method. How did you come to choose that particular one.

If you do the same calculation with say, ODX, or AVACTA that would value their SP at approx. 5p and 19p respectively based on last known cash positions !!!!!

Hey Naewise. It's an antibody test, NOT an antigen.

ak, I think a lot of the cost relates to local test centres having to send off the tests to a lab.

I could imagine local test centres all over the country doing their own onsite testing using Promate and Q32 machines.

That way you get the best of both worlds. You avoid the inaccuracies of people doing their own tests at home, combined with the lower cost and speed of getting the sample tested onsite where the sample was taken.

Hey ak, but that is the point. NCYT don't need a lab. Promate doesn't need a lab.

They COULD , if they chose, get a big room and fill it with , say, 100 x Q32 machines and do their own in house testing. Could easily be doing 100,000 a day if the demand was there and they got it organised .

Having said that. I don't think that is the way GM is thinking. More irons in the fire maybe. Time will tell.
Looking forward to hearing his medium term plan sometime in this quarter

Hey Wilson. Yes home testing is not ideal. But that is the way to bring the cost down for healthy people wanting to go on hol. Running test centres is adding a lot of cost.

The tests aren't expensive, it's the testers that ARE.!

NCYT should not miss an opportunity here. They could do direct to/from NCYT online/postal PCR testing much cheaper than £60 a test. Huge margin for NCYT even at £30 a test.

Hey maestro, DHSC will be back , when they want to. This thing isn't over yet.

Be brilliant if a very large order came in from the French Gov. !!!!!

Lee, you said, " Margins are still a decent level but they will keep dropping, especially as bigger companies flood the market. "

But which other company has a Gold standard PCR test like Promate. Easy to use and doesn't require a lab.

I think one thing from the trading update was notable. That was since we recently introduced Promate to the market that is MOSTLY what we were selling to the DHSC.
It is clearly a major improvement on a standard PCR test and will therefore be very desirable and sought after. I would imagine the GROWTH in overseas orders and the private sector will continue as Promate demand increases.

Cost is becoming a MAJOR concern, prior to which countries were simply throwing money everywhere in panic and desperation. Promate is a MUCH cheaper product to use because it's quicker AND doesn't need to be sent to a lab.
That is going to be a huge selling point going forward.

Promate will be our big earner for a long time yet, and may well be what a prospective acquirer of NCYT will be keen to get their hands on.

I think as usual, NCYT are still way ahead of the competition.
Market just doesn't realise it yet.

We need cheap PCR testing. NCYT have got it.....££££

Testers just need some basic lab tools, pipettes, a fridge, and a Q machine.

I could set up a Promate testing lab in my kitchen

When private testing companies appreciate the benefits of cost reduction I think Promate will be the PCR test of choice for the testers.

Hey Kaeren,

My understanding is that Promate is the same as NCYT previous PCR test. BUT it has been improved so that it is easier and quicker to use.
It requires less stages of preparation/pipetting , so less complicated for anyone to use and so quicker than previous.

But also, and crucially, does not required containment within a lab cabinet because all the active ingredient have been rendered not harmful. So the test can be done anywhere.

"...The PROmate workflow, which includes a viral inactivation buffer, meant the mobile processing laboratories did not require a category-2 laboratory to handle the live virus.
As a result, the cost of testing was reduced, as well as the risks associated with handling the live virus in a mobile testing unit......"

So basically, less complicated and cheaper to use, and, can be done anywhere...BRILLIANT

The Gov clearly wanted to exit the old contract.

BUT...that does not mean we won't get future contracts.

The Gov will be under intense pressure to save money/get value for money.

If you've got great products people will want them. (just got to get the deal right)

Yes, a bit ironic(to say the least) that some of the Uber Bulls were the first to sell yesterday(AND cause the price crash !!!!)

"...Novacyt delivered revenue for Q1 2021 of €83.0 million (£72.6 million). Approximately 50% of Q1 revenue was driven by sales to the DHSC, predominately PROmate™. The remaining c.50% of Q1 revenue was driven by continued growth of international sales and expansion of the Company's private sector testing operations..."

So Q1 was a rather impressive £72.6m . If that had continued for the rest of this year we would end the year very similar to and just over 2020 revenue and be looking at getting close to £200m in the bank. Stunning!!

HOWEVER than is unlikely now.
BUT 50% of revenue is Non DHSC = £36.3m
So Q1 72.6, Q2 36.3, Q3 36.3, Q4 36.3
Revenue for 2021 =£181.5m

That is a still a VERY successful business. (especially with the margins we have....hugely profitable)
AND, we hear international sales are INCREASING as well as the private sector.
Still plenty to play for I think.

It's ironic that the likes of ODX and Avacta are booming right now. Unlike us they haven't made a penny.!!!
Just imagine if the government has bit of a U-turn on LFT testing. (when they finally realise they are useless, and people have stopped using them !!!)

Quite, what is going to happen when they come knocking on our door for our soon to be released next gen. antibody test.

Summer hols. business for NCYT could be surprisingly good!