Member Info for SteveV

WOW...£38 million. The largest ever... AND it was only a letter of intent !!!!!

Got to to be a caste iron case for NCYT, we had a firm contract.

Quite agree Porky.

AND let's hope we also get off AIM and move to a more stable market and attract some bigger investors.

I should think positive fully audited results due end of June, a positive forward looking statement, AND, hopefully a relisting onto a decent market away from AIM would do wonders.

I think it's coming.

Of course it would be highly ironic, quite unexpected, but a somewhat mouthwatering prospect IF it turned out that
the partner NCYT was working with to develop their LFT Antigen turn out to be AVACTA.

AVACTA have a great test? NCYT have the volume manufacturing capability and the NHS/worldwide sales/ distribution outlets.

Just saying !!!!

Hey, Picathartes. Some interesting points, but I will pick you up on one.

Re: missing the boat. NO, NCYT have not missed the boat. They have made hundreds of millions in revenue and currently have well over £100m in the bank. AVACTA have made nothing , and when they eventually bring out their test and start to generate revenue NCYT will have a similar product and surely share the market with them.

Why has NCYT, one of the most successful COVID stocks, become the most undervalued?

Is it just market manipulation and shorters targeting a high profile volatile stock?

Why aren't they shorting ODX or AVACTA. How is it, on the one hand, some have concerns about revenue in perpetuity post COVID, and so down grade NCYT, BUT some COVID stocks that haven't made a penny are holding up so well.

Is it part of some entities grand plan to acquire the company?

I really can't understand why it has taken so long for AVACTA to get their LFT COVID test out.

Maybe it is a great test? But I suspect NCYT will get an equivalent test out that works equally as well in double quick time.

Surely AVACTA have missed the boat. They have taken far too long to capitalise on the opportunity, and have plenty of competition. I really don't get why they are so highly valued.(compared to NCYT)

Hey HarChris, Yes very good point.
OK do we think there will be NO COVID testing in 2022 ? I very much doubt it.
What if NCYT revenue in 2022 dropped of a cliff to say, £40m
Well actually using my same calculations implies an SP very much as is now, £3.90

BUT do you think anyone will be let into a hospital for treatment in 2022 without a PCR test?

AND of course NCYT will be even MORE cash rich then than now and will be able to fulfil their ambition in other diagnostic areas. In 2022, If you got circa £200m in the bank and are a leading ambitious diagnostics company, I think the world is your oyster, especially in what is a GROWTH market.

BUT that is just NCYT.

What I can't get my head around is when you compare the fabulous performance of NCYT with similar companies who seem to have achieved very little.

I did the same Price/ratio calculations that I showed you all for NCYT, for ODX and AVACTA.
Try yourself, it is laughable. The price/sales ratio for AVACTA based on 2020 revenue is astronomical. It is embarrassing, their SP is so high, and totally out of kilter with their performance.
Their sp should be around 10p based on 2020 revenues.
What are they going to do in 2021 or 2022.?

Follow the money. That is what I have done.

.... Price /sales ratio Ctd.

OK so my previous post was 2020. What about 2021?
So in the infamous update we heard , no more DHSC orders this year.
Q1 revenue was £72.6m. 50% was DHSC. so £36.3m for international sales in Q1.
So we might expect full year revenue to be £72.6 + £36.3 +£36.3 + £36.3 = £181.5M

Plug that into the Price to sales ratio calculation(AND assuming a sector average of 7)
gives us an SP for the full year 2021 of £17.89 !!!!

That doesn't include any revenue for the new NHS framework, any increase in international sales(which NCYT informed us were growing), OR, any on the new products. GM said the new LFT antigen could generate significant revenue.

When is the market going to value this share properly ???

I have also just topped up at 390p.
The sp doesn't compute to me either.
I recently did a few rough calculations based on price /sales ratios.
That is a pretty crude tool but quite useful when comparing similar businesses within market sector.

The Average ratio for Healthcare products sector is approx 7. (any lower is better and higher is worse)

Price/sales ratio = market cap/revenue.
With a sp of £3.90 The ratio for NCYT is a mere 1 based on 2020 revenues of £277m
IF it were 7 (in line with the average for NCYT sector), that equates to a SP of £27.30 !!!!

OK so we are waiting for fully audited accounts end of June to see if revenue is below that which was stated.
Say we loose £77m.(highly unlikely in my view). But let's say revenue of only £200m
With a ratio of 7 that equates to an sp of £19.70 !!

I should think that amounts to market manipulation and is illegal.

Unfortunately shorting is NOT regarded as market manipulation. Selling stock you don't own for your own advantage... !!
!!!!!!!!!!!

Would be great to get off AIM. It is SO VOLATILE..!
It's a traders dream. You just have enough money to put a big short on and the SP drops. Very frustrating for LTH's

The market clearly didn't like today's RNS. Great for NCYT PR giving 1 million test away but probably interpreted by the market as surplus stock that they can't sell due to DHSC dispute.
Unfortunately I think we are going to suffer for a while yet. I can see the SP dropping to £4 or below before recovering.
May is going to be tricky. But I am hopeful June will be our month.
NCYT is VERY successful business.

Yes, very worrying. The virus is going to run rampant in some countries, mutate to variations that may re-infect countries who are doing well right now. Quite likely there will be some vaccination resist mutations forming.

Testing, and testing for variations will remain critical. (especially variations)

UK is having a welcome respite now. Hopefully we can gain some semblance of normality for the next few months. Time will tell how things pan out in the Autumn/Winter and possibly 3rd wave.

The problem for India is the sheer size of the population 1.3 billion.
Can they ever afford to test or vaccinate enough people?

Hey Deos. Always difficult to make decisions on volatile/risky stocks.
I have in the past held on far to long and lost a lot more.
You probably made a sensible decision for YOU at the time. Let's face it the DHSC RNS was a disaster. Even had Porky selling up.
Nobody saw coming the current BRILLIANT RNS to follow it so SOON. NCYT have gone from zero to hero in short order.

...when the results appear.

Yes, It'a a shame about the dispute, other than the main problem it caused, but also it has delayed our fully audited accounts by a couple of months.
Lets' hope we do get proper vauations

Hey Porky, Antigen test ? Do we know they are working on that. Have they said?
I presume that means LFT Antigen...bit late in the day to get in to the market. Thought that wasn't our bag.

I suspect the results will be delayed because Q4 2020 revenue is uncertain due to the DHSC dispute.

I don't think NCYT are going to bring out an LFT Antigen test.
Where did you hear that??
Antibody, yes.