Member Info for SteveV

Was that the bottom then ? £3.40 at 14:00. Market cap of £241m

Market cap less than revenue!!!!? Unreal for a business with such a huge profit margin.

So are you saying it is simply a VAT thing. Worst case scenario is that we lose 20% from £150m. (regardless of it it fell in Q4 or Q1.)

I can live with £30 million less revenue than expected.

Hey Mac, yes but trouble with that is NCYT have told us they think DHSC have enough in stock for all of 2021.
They don't need any more right now. That could change of course.

Could it also be complicated because, The DHSC are honouring the minimum contract BUT that was signed before Promate was available. Are NCYT assuming Promate is additional to the original contract but the DHSC are including it.

Hey Chris, could it be that if what you suggest is the case we may find Q4 2020 DHSC revenue ends up being largely unchanged
BUT Q1 2021 DHSC revenue will largely disappear.

Hey Troublesome, No I doubt they would have a sales or return arrangement, because if they did surely there would be NO dispute. NCYT would be obliged to take the returns.

GM has twice pointed out that " ....The Company has taken legal advice in relation to the dispute and believes it has strong grounds to assert its contractual rights...."

I would be VERY surprised if any kind of refund of CASH happens.
Government sign a contract, take delivery of goods,then pay for goods, AND now want a refund. ....NO

If anything it is more plausible they don't want to pay for SOME product invoiced in Q4 and now Q1 that invoices are outstanding on.

Over ordered in panic mode and now want to wriggle out of it. How much is the question, AND do they have ANY grounds at all for trying to.

I remember many years ago I was running I small business. A customer wanted an exclusive deal for us to supply them a particular product. It was a specific number of items for a specific period of time. Great. Well the customer had bitten off more than they could chew and couldn't sell all we had supplied. In fact they were stock piling loads of product and panicking. They basically wanted to cancel the contact. We were torn because we had a cast iron contract and could have insisted. BUT they were our main customer. In the end we compromised and were able to cancel some of the contract but supply them other items to the value of. We lost out a bit but still stayed trading with them on good terms.

Maybe it is simply a Gov delaying tactic to spread the financial load into the next accounting period.

They know they will have to pay eventually.

The Nightingale hospitals cost around £500m to set up run and decommission. They were barely used.

Wonder if the DHSC is trying cancel all those contracts as well? "Sorry we didn't need them after all so, thanks for supplying all the equipment and services, BUT, we'd like a refund now please." !!!

Yes It is new news, but how come it was not known about when the Q4 2020 news was announced?

OR, could be day trading shorters closing their position. !!

YES... you got it. THAT was the point of my post to highlight that a company ...like EKF , who are doing LESS well that NCYT
seem to be valued so much higher.

Not really sure how you misconstueud that.

Hey MacTrader. Not sure what you are going on about there !! You seem to have got the totally WRONG end of the stick.
I have been comparing NCYT with EKF to highlight how undervalued NCYT seem to be. I have no position in EKF.

I was also comparing us to AVACTA to ALSO show the disconnect between revenue/profit and SP, (unfavourably for NCYT)
It is NOT insulting to make a comparison. Comparisons allow us to make a judgement on where the value lies...(NCYT)

Hey Bugs,
Yes, very good question..... that I don't know the answer to.
So I compared NCYT to EKF. Two successful companies, making money, doing very similar things and NCYT seemed to be VERY undervalued.

BUT what is harder to fathom. You do the same analysis with the likes of ODX and AVACTA both of which have failed miserably to generate any revenue from COVID sales, and their figures are laughable BAD(in comparison), yet they don't seem to have attracted the negativity and shorting that NCYT have.

I am at a loss. Is it a cunning plan to prize the golden tickets from the retail investors into the hands of others?

I repeat my post from this morning for those that missed it:

EKF currently has a market cap of £339m with revenue for 2020 of £65m
That gives a Price/sales ratio around 5.2 (sector average for healthcare products is 7)

If NCYT had the same ratio as EKF( based on 2020 revenue) the sp would be £20.28

I think the trouble right now is a lot of people suspect a good upside but want to take advantage of uncertainty to buy in at bargain prices.
Mm's have no option but to try and make a market and bring down prices to accommodate buy orders.

This will change. Let's get May out of the way. I am expecting a tick up throughout early June and then a bit of a surge towards the end of June as shorts close, buyers return, new news arrives, end of June results become imminent.

Let us NOT forget NCYT is NOW a VERY successful business that generates loads of profit.

Getting off AIM will, I think, be a game changer.
I would be surprised if it is not very high up on GM's agenda.

We shareholders can get a little impatient, especially given the recent losses, because we appreciate the value here.
Next 6 weeks until end of June will be very interesting and could be transformational.

True value will eventually emerge.

I don't think anyone should be advising anyone to be buying or selling shares.
Peoples' circumstances will be entirely different.

If you own shares it is understandable that you might want to be optimistic around the potential upside.

And incidentally, I find it rather distasteful that people will try to de-ramp a share with the intention to buy in a a lower price.

I would also add GM plays a very straight bat. He is very down to earth and tells it like it is.

Another CEO may have tried to play light with any bad news and ramp what isn't there.

His ambition is to achieve Mid-cap status. He has a plan to achieve that. I think he will.

Hey Naewise, The DHSC contract was an unexpected windfall that has had the potential to generate a huge cash pile for NCYT and to enable them to grow the business and achieve the ambition of the board to turn it from a minnow into a thriving Midcap diagnostics company.

Naturally the curtailment of the contract has posed question marks against this and the market has responded accordingly.
Uncertainty prevails in a lot of minds.

However NCYT remain a VERY successful company. They are cash rich and have a plan which will be revealed in good time.

Let us not forget it could be that most of the revenue we have lost from the DHSC could well be taken up in full with the new NHS framework. No big contract but lots of revenue nevertheless.

I am predicting around £200m revenue for 2021. Cash in the bank of £180m. Great!! Enviable revenue and profit margin.

What will happen in 2022. That is really the question.