Member Info for SteveV

Hey WBAFC, a huge contract would be great, however I am thinking those days may be gone.
Is it not going to be steady sales from now on?
What NCYT have now is global reach selling to many countries. Hopefully that will result in sustainable revenue going forward.
Stable consistent revenue. That is what will make this sp re-rate to true value(whatever that turns out to be)

Hey Greggs, trouble with ODX and that £374 order is people have lost trust in dealing with our wonderful government.
How much with that actually transpire to?

NCYT had at one point the potential of around £850m if phase 1 and phase 2 were fully taken up. What happened after that? They are even trying to renege on most of phase 1. There must be some super incompetent civil servants running things, or they just don't care because they can get away with the intransigence..

p.s. you must be a Newcastle boy with a name like GreggsStottie?

I suspect the dispute will drag on until the autumn when demand for tests increases again.

If/when the DHSC need more tests the dispute will probably evaporate.

If the NHS framework that NCYT are a part is fully working now we would expect to see NHS hospitals buy directly from NCYT from their own budget. But is there a huge stock pile of tests that the DHSC should be supplying the NHS first. OR do the DHSC want to renege on the contract specifically so they can save money by having the NHS foot the bill for tests and buy their own budgets from now on. "Robbing Peter to pay Paul" ?

Not interested in the dodgy government poison chalice contracts right now.

"...The Company will initially target private market opportunities for these LFTs via its existing distribution network...."

I still find it frustrating that we still don't really know what the dispute is about.

Yes we have been able to make a judgement regarding the best and worst case financial scenario outcomes.

BUT, what IS it all about ???

"in accordance with the contractual terms, and if required, it should be possible to replace the product in dispute and a product warranty provision has been made accordingly. ..."

We have had no word AT ALL that anyone else BUT the DHSC have had any problems with our product. SO ..is there really a problem? We are left to guess, which is a poor state of affairs.

Could it be that: NCYT had been stock piling product for the DHSC from summer 2020 to be able to supply a lot come autumn/winter. The DHSC then over ordered what they eventually needed. So they ended up with product with an already short shelf life that went out of date before it was needed.
DHSC wanted a refund on out of date product. NCYT said well you ordered it and we supplied what you asked for. DHSC said, well you gave us product with a short shelf life and now we don't even want it. NCYT said, yes we've got a contract and if we have to, we will replace any out of date product under the warranty agreement. !!!! ???

Who knows? ...wish they would tell us.

The new NHS framework, that NCYT are a part of, should hopefully be more consistent.

They just order what they need and pay for that. NO problem. That's the sort of customer we want.!!!!

The UK Gov panicked amid shortages across the board and went on a buying frenzy to guarantee supplies after the initial criticism of being ill-prepared and short of supplies.

These tender awards seems to be fools gold. You think you have hit the jackpot only to find later it all fizzles out into a bit of a mess. UK government procurement is embarrassingly amateurish.

Forget about tenders. Concentrate on solid orders from reliable customers. NCYT have got plenty of them.

Let us not forget we are still making shed loads of cash. We are a VERY successful business. !!

What is especially annoying is the DHSC apparent happiness with the Innova LFT.

They don't seem to be trying to send back product or asking for a refund for their rubbish tests.

Unlike in the USA:
FDA recommendations:
Recommendations for Test Users, Health Care Providers, and Testing Program Organizers

Stop using the Innova SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Rapid Qualitative Test.
Destroy the tests by placing them in the trash or
Return the tests to Innova using the FedEx return label that was included with the recall letter that Innova sent to customers.

Hey Soder, so if it is simply unpaid invoices that are in dispute, why would the RNS be saying,

"It is possible, but not probable, that the DHSC's claim for a refund under the limited assurance warranty will be successful."

That is, they are asking for money back.?

I just can't see there being problem with the product. Has any other customer BUT the DHSC had a problem with the product?...NO.

Smacks of incompetence and intransigence on behalf of the DHSC

NCYT have done MUCH more than most companies in the fight against COVID to supply cutting edge, reliable products.

DHSC are doing their best to seriously mess up one of their best suppliers.

I do think the Covid stocks are probably moving into a "shake out" phase.
We have had the growth phase. Most stocks have done very well. Some have done very well based on sentiment rather than revenue/profit.
The cream will rise to the top. Those making no money will inevitably crash and burn. Those making money will thrive.

Hey Kaeren, well let's hope so. But the market loves clarity and so we have to wait a bit for that.

It does beg the question why did NCYT bother to release the results a week earlier than planned. I can't see anything in them that could make them think "well NOW we can announce that because we have clarity"

I am hoping it is because they are keen to start the news flow of other items. e.g. the LFT Antigen test that was due "by the end of H1". Are we going to get an RNS in the next few days ?? Looking forward to hearing about who we are partnering with. Hoping it is a major player.

Trouble is all NCYT did was release the figures we new about already , revenue £277m.
We new this in Jan. I think the market was hoping for a definitive resolution of the DHSC dispute, however we still don't know a huge amount much more really as to how this will play out.

"...The Board has formed a judgment that, in accordance with the contractual terms, and if required, it should be possible to replace the product in dispute and a product warranty provision has been made accordingly..."

WHY do we need to replace product??? Was it faulty(I don't think so). Did DHSC order too much and the stuff they had is going to be out of date before getting used. Is this something to do with changing over to Promate because hospitals struggled to use the original tests (which are now out of date).

So the RNS states that it will cost NCYT £19.8m to replace whichever products need replacing !!
Now that wouldn't be so bad. 2020 revenue remains at £277m, but we make £19.8 m LESS profit. I could live with that no problem.

BUT then they also say "..It is possible, but not probable, that the DHSC's claim for a refund under the limited assurance warranty will be successful. The timing of any cash outflow is dependent upon the success of the claim and the terms negotiated for repayment. If the resolution of the claim is materially different from the Board's determination of replacing the product, the financial statements with regard to revenue and the provision for product warranty could be significantly impacted..."

So we still don't know. It COULD still be worse than £19.8M(or a lot worse)....BUT we don't know.

Market HATES uncertainty.

The rest of the RNS was great !

Avacta down 6.5% today
ODX down 7%

They need to declare some revenue pretty sharpish . NCYT have plenty of revenue. JUST a shame we still don't know exactly what it is.

They asked NCYT to make the test. AND they did. It was a non event this year as the flu was virtually non existent.

NOW they are saying FLU could be a major event this winter. Covid/Flu.....Has anyone else got a test for that ??

Avacta down 15% today.
ODX down 6% today.
They both have made £ zero revenue as yet from Covid diagnostics.

Is NCYT the only UK Covid diagnostics stock that is actually making any money.?

We don't need "mind blowing" results.
We just need solid revenue, with positive forward looking statement.
NCYT is a solid company that is going places.

ODDO were brought in to raise the profile of NCYT in France, to encourage French investors.

ODDO's luke warm notes were never going to result in a buying frenzy by the French.

We don't even sell much product in France.

They just aren't that interested...... BEST GET RID......ASAP

All requiring a PCR test before they let them into hospital.

Hospital visitors(when they let them in) requiring a 15min LFT (a top quality one...NOT an Innova one ) ?

Unfortunately the DHSC have really messed with NCYT's plans.
Fully audited accounts end of April could have paved the way. Now we are in limbo.

It is not inconceivable that if the DHSC dispute is not resolved soon and depending on the £ figures being unresolved
NCYT may decide NOT to publish accounts end of June. I think they can apply for a 3 month extension(a temporary measure introduced due to COVID) if they choose to.

I mentioned this this morning. Innova's website is STILL down.

That cannot be for a bit of general maintenance. (it doesn't take that long). Absolutely no reason for it to be down ALL day for technical reasons.

Innova have chosen to pull it. Why would that be??