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M Wall

I don't really get the comparison to 88E, other than it can be a cold in both Alaska and Greenland.

Many might hope it does the same as 88E initially when it swiftly increased ten fold from 0.5p.

While 88E hasn't performed yet, there are a number of companies who have succeeded in Alaska and Alaska's production passed 19 Billion barrels in 2025.

So, choosing one company that didn't do well in a region that has done remarkably well overall, and using that solely as a comparison, doesn't really work for me.

GLR

You've analysed the potential adequately, but only you can ultimately decide whether the odds in 80M's favour are compelling enough for your level of your own financial risk.

Growmorecash

'No share needs a Rachel From Accounts'

One of the funniest 'one liners' I've read for quite some time ! Haha ! 😅😅😅

All AI offerings aside and using basic logic.

While it's agreed that the 'takeover' over of Greenland by the US is highly unlikely, even if they did, the use of the word 'legal' in relation to the licences and operations would have no bearing whatsoever on whether they were developed. It assumes that the current USA administration recognises existing rule based norms. It doesn't.

A USA listed stock, owned and traded by USA citizens with an asset in an area under USA control would be 'sanctioned' by who exactly ? It wouldn't make any difference whatsoever. The money flow would be entirely under USA control.

And who would stop the operations ? 57,000 Greenland citizens ? Not a chance.

Simply, the imminent Nasdaq listing couldn't be better timed from a 'highest profile' point of view, and I have a hunch that those investing on the Nasdaq, mainly from the USA, will be drooling over the prospect of an untapped multi billion barrel oil resource, whether they believe it will become another state of the USA or not.

The timely reporting of trades has gone to rat s.h.1.t.

Cancelled trades from as far back as the 12th December.

LITT1

Thanks for the guide and synopsis.

If you wanted to expand that further then, if it lists on the NASDAQ at $10 and goes on a wild run, for every $10 increase in the NASDAQ listed stock price, it adds a further 'roughly £70 Million' to the value of 80M's stake.

I think USA investors will be scrambling to get on board - Greenland ! They own it now (apparently !) 🙂

I believe Charles Archer, who focusses mainly on resource stocks and a few other outliers, will be interviewing Alex soon. He has quite a following and recently did a write up on ALRT which was the catalyst that sparked a languishing 0.4p price all the way to 4p.

Here's a current example.

Azerbaijan is very similar politically and historically to Kazakhstan, albeit over thirty times smaller than Kazakhstan.

AAZ are based in Azerbaijan and any perceived political risk hasn't hindered their valuation growth, now at £300 Million +

Kazakhstan has fostered a stable relationship with the three influencers, China, Russia and the USA and the transition you refer to is three to four years away from now. All four countries, including Kazakhstan, financially gain.

I think there's far less political risk in Kazakhstan than in West Africa, where despite the higher political risk in Africa, EDV have successfully, built a multi Billion enterprise.

Thinking ahead, if EDV + EST start turning Kazakhstan Gold discoveries into another replica of EDV's Africa, in my opinion, EDV will be keen to buy out the 20% free carry that EST will have.

"As a result, Endeavour is a world class partner for East Star and we look forward to delivering value together, for all of our stakeholders."

12.2 Million ounces, roughly 2.5 Million ounces to EST, which equates to roughly £7.5 Billion as EST's share, I can foresee a £750 Million + offer to buy EST out of the licences.

That's my take on it. Something to look forward to ! 😀

Oh, and lest I forget, there's also the Copper to be developed.

What a great perspective. Endeavour (EDV) have described EST's Licences in Kazakhstan as comparable to their existing Licences in Africa, and they've already discovered 12.2 Million ounces of Gold in four years (2.4 Million ounces a year) in Africa.

That, therefore, is what EDV, who's expertise is Gold Discovery and Production, is forecasting for EST.

______

"What Makes West Africa Central to Endeavour's Growth Vision?

Despite expanding exploration activities into Central Asia through a $25 million joint venture with East Star Resources in Kazakhstan, Endeavour Mining remains fundamentally committed to West Africa as its primary growth engine. The region offers several competitive advantages that align with the company's operational expertise and strategic objectives.

Since 2021, Endeavour has discovered 12.2 million ounces of resources in West Africa, establishing a five-year discovery target of 12-17 million ounces of indicated resources.

These figures suggest discovery rates of approximately 2.4 million ounces annually from 2021-2025, with targets potentially increasing to 2.4-3.4 million ounces annually for future periods."

______

Here's Endeavours (EDV) description of what they expect from EST's assets.

"Kazakhstan is extensively underlain by one of the world’s most fertile, yet underexplored gold provinces, the CAOB, containing gold endowment within Kazakhstan alone of 32.1Moz (2022 USGS estimate).

*** The CAOB shares many characteristics with West Africa’s Birimian greenstone belt.

Both belts are accretionary orogenic belts shaped by long-lived, multi-stage mineralising events with proven large, long-life, multi-million-ounce gold deposits. ***"

It's not just PI 'talk' either. The CEO has stated that EST is undervalued to a factor of 10 and above in relation to it's peers, with some of them holding assets that they'll never even end up being able to develop, and without a JV that EST has, with a multi £ Billion partner in place who's stumping up the cash to develop the licences.

Here's Endeavours (EDV) description of what they expect from EST's assets. I'm happy to take their word for it.

"Kazakhstan is extensively underlain by one of the world’s most fertile, yet underexplored gold provinces, the CAOB, containing gold endowment within Kazakhstan alone of 32.1Moz (2022 USGS estimate). The CAOB shares many characteristics with West Africa’s Birimian greenstone belt. Both belts are accretionary orogenic belts shaped by long-lived, multi-stage mineralising events with proven large, long-life, multi-million-ounce gold deposits."

The Endeavour (EDV) investment in EST is the most significant endorsement of the team at EST and their licences.

As PI's, we'll all have differing views of EST but when a £9 Billion +, Ftse 100, Top 10 Global Gold producer, throws it's money at another company and it's licences, it's time for me to sit up and notice.

Also, how many other Uk listed Gold / Copper stocks have Endeavour invested in recently ? None as far as I can see, but happy to be corrected.

In short, if the gold producing 'experts' can see a return on their investment, both in their significant Holding and the licences they've just JV'd with EST on, that good enough for me and I'm following their expertise and their money.

Personal opinion, I think the 'market reaction ' is nothing more than coping with the final day of warrants being exercised (sells') versus a quiet half day for PI participation (buys). I expected the price to react earlier than today to the current levels because of the warrants, so it held up well over the last couple of weeks with roughly 25 Million exercised warrants reported so far, and I'm guessing the final tally will be another 5 to 10 Million warrants having being sold.

One Million £ in the company till and they can only be exercised once. Looking forward to the start of a rerate in January.

Dustfilter

I was aware of the 'gap' too but they don't always fill. MKA had a 17p 'gap' in July this year and went on to reach 80p and the 'gap' still sits there, unfilled.

Another £750k to put in the company till and only the remainder of today and a half day tomorrow to exercise any more warrants.

Bring on 2026 ! Some catching up to do from the current undervaluation to EST's peers, by a factor of ten.

How many others have a JV with a £9 Billion + Ftse 100 Gold Producer, that have also taken a significant Holding in the company ?

Mikey

Great post and agree.

Your synopsis seems to have been cut short at the end though.

'could support valuations well into the hundreds of millions under a scaled JV-led model, potentially into the billions over a longer holding per .... '

There are a list of 50 Institutional Investors in Ftse 100 Endeavour, and many of them will be aware of EDV's investment in EST, so that should automatically put EST on their radar.

Particularly, given the below:

""Endeavour is a top 10 global gold producer, with one of the best discovery track records in the sector and, importantly, they have an excellent track record of converting those discoveries into mines, having built five projects in the last 11 years, all to plan, across three jurisdictions. As a result, Endeavour is a world class partner for East Star and we look forward to delivering value together, for all of our stakeholders."'

Dibs

That Endeavour Holdings investment in EST, coupled with their $ 25 Million JV agreement is a significant endorsement and also gives a highly experienced analysis of where they see EST's minimum valuation, in my opinion.

Endeavour are commercially astute, evidenced by their £9 Billion Market Cap, and I think they've also played a blinder by covering all angles, which should be expected too.

Their intention to maintain a minimum 10% Holding in EST, in my opinion, gives an indication of where they see the minimum Market Cap valuation of EST. They're throwing $ 25 Million at the JV and I believe that EDV will have forecast that this will be easily clawed back by their Holdings investment in EST, which would put their minimum forecast for EST's valuation at $ 250 Million (approx. £200 Million), roughly ten fold above the current valuation.

That also concurs with Alex's view of the current undervaluation, from a different direction, by highlighting that comparable stocks are valued at ten times higher than the current market cap of EST.

Endeavour also give a few clues in the focus of their Exploration Targets announced this month to discover 12 - 15 Million Oz of high grade resources.

Amongst EDV's greenfield exploration focus in their RNS, 'across three tier 1 gold provinces; the Central Asian Orogenic Belt (CAOB)'

_________

The Central Asian Orogenic Belt (CAOB) is one of the largest accretionary orogens on Earth and is characterized by the occurrence of tight oroclines (Kazakhstan and Tuva-Mongolian oroclines)

_________

It wouldn't surprise me to see EDV cropping up again in another JV with EST in Kazakhstan in the near term, and EST were also keen to highlight the below about EDV.

""Endeavour is a top 10 global gold producer, with one of the best discovery track records in the sector and, importantly, they have an excellent track record of converting those discoveries into mines, having built five projects in the last 11 years, all to plan, across three jurisdictions. As a result, Endeavour is a world class partner for East Star and we look forward to delivering value together, for all of our stakeholders."'

It was purely by chance and it wasn't from AYM but the prospect of additional local employment for many years to come, in any part of Wales, unsurprisingly, would always be a focus of the Welsh Government. And no, if the question arises, I'm not in politics either, it doesn't appeal to me in the slightest. That's as much as I can give. Knowing that, doesn't guarantee success in getting the funding, but it does demonstrate the wish by AYM to develop the asset and not just sit on it, which suggests a renewed vigour or a re-focus.