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I am not sure where all the hype around Shell is coming from ??
As we say in Mongolia, this is just blue sky thinking !!
Instead of stating what is pure speculation, it may be better to stick to the facts. There is no Shell or other “Super Major” sniffing around Mongolia at present. If there was people would know.
Stick with the short term objectives which are very simple to understand. Matad have to drill WH this year, and report a commercial find. Until then can we please cut out what is pure fantasy !!
No one drills realistically after October in Mongolia.
Ask any of the drilling companies in UB and they will all tell you the same.
If you have ever worked in climatically challenging conditions you will know it’s not generally equipment that is considered the issue, but the human factor.
At best you will get guys to work 20 mins outside, then you have to bring them inside to warm back up for 20 minutes, which makes any operation once you exceed -15 basically unproductive !!
Fundy.
Trust me I am someone that can work it out !!
If Matad move this on quickly, spud and get to TD with out any major technical or political issues, there is still adequate time and float in the schedule to meet the deliverables on WH in 2018.
If key deliverables begin to creep, it may prove tight.
Until then, the sun is shining. Also remember if you are looking at local weather forecasts, UB can be typically 10 degrees colder than the South Gobi, so that may blur your thinking.
Manro, cheer up mate, all is far from bad !!
Frontier and emerging markets can be difficult gigs. You never stop learning regardless of being the boss, or a fresh off the boat field engineer.
Matad will continue to learn, so do not worry.
Some times it’s not just the technical execution that’s important, but the politics and other matters that go with working in emerging countries that can be testing.
WH drilled 2018, we have not done bad.
My view is, give Matad the benefit of the doubt in terms of WH, until they disclose further news.
If they fail to deliver WH this year, then they deserve to be criticized, and take one on the chin.
I also think it’s time for all to stop the finger pointing, and to once again add value to this board in terms of their knowledge and contributions. Equally if the rampers reappear, they need telling perhaps their time is better spent elsewhere.
Onwards.
Manro, well said.
I was at the AGM today and my view is this. Mike is a decent guy, and I think will readily admit he and his team have learnt a lot this year. In terms of WH I am confident Matad will deliver this year.
However the Captain is bang on. This is high risk frontier drilling with no promises. The serial rampers here add no value, and to be honest several I would class as oxygen thief’s.
I am sure the AGM minutes will be distributed shortly. I was pleased with Matads response to several questions, and pleased going forward the management are committed to their execution planning for the remainder of this year and 2019.
However I know the likes of Mr P and others will reappear shortly. WH has a lesser COS than SL, so please stop the nonsense ramping and garbage, and accept if you are invested, this is high risk, with a high probability of failure. As long as Matad deliver against their revised drilling schedule, that’s a risk I am happy to take.
Proselenes
Check November 2017.
You may find a rather cold spell around the middle of the month. I think we had -30 last year at night.
Not many can predict weather in Mongolia, so to suggest November may be OK, may not be the best option.
Couple of points / observations for consideration.
My view is SL will be a technical success, but not a commercial success. If we all honestly believe on Matads first major drill we are going to get lucky, most of us that understand this industry know we are kidding ourselves. Gas also exists in this region, so there is alternative potential, should oil fail to appear.
During 2018 Matad will have learnt a significant amount, will understand several process's in far better definition, especially relating to immigration, the labour office and MRPAM. All critical to a business that has to move forward.
The learning's and the failures go hand in hand, but if Matad learn from these, manage cash, hopefully they will be better prepared for 2019.
The kicker !!!
The retention of Mike Buck is critical. Matad lose Mike Buck, then the business is in a dark place. Mike has been on a steep learning curve and will now recognise some of the issue's with delivery in Mongolia. He will recognise some of the people he has to deal with will have a knife in his back prior to breaking a smile, and he will know now who he can and cannot trust in Mongolia. Mike therefore must stay.
What Mike does need and its critical in frontier / emerging markets, is a hard nose COO, who growls, spits and in short is an animal. That guy has to deliver against every target / objective, and must know how to do so. If that person is a cost to the business of around 1mill USD per year, to me that's money well spent. I would encourage Matad to find that person, spend that money, and then let Mike get on with what you employ a CEO to do, which is keep his shareholders, the business stakeholders, and senior relationships moving in the right direction.
Its very easy for me to understand the failures having worked in frontier markets for approaching two decades. Its bloody difficult, and each country is very different to the next. Mongolia can test the resolve of the best of people. What Matad don't need is a soft cock, out of somewhere like London, Singapore, Houston etc. These guys although experienced add little value when needing to get stuff done in the middle of the South Gobi.
Also bear in mind, yes British Gas come in, and loved Mongolia. I was also in Libya when British Gas spent millions on a block their in 2006, and came away without success.
Any success from SL and WH will be very lucky. This is frontier, wildcat drilling, in a remote climatically challenging country, that at times finds it difficult to operate and govern itself.
If 2018 is successful, or a failure, Matad will have learn a lot. However in terms of risk, this opportunity is very high risk, with potentially little or no return. If nothing else this year, Matad announces Mikes retention for a further two years, and the introduction to the operational team of a top quality COO, Project Controls Manager, and a local fixer, the business will be better placed for 2019.
Pal.
Chill. The guys know who they are. It’s just a shame with a couple of days to go until we receive news, people have visibly gone luke warm.
And yet for three solid months had the absolute hots for Matad!
Just an observation.
Love to chat more, but off to bed.