focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Continued: I should have added that I’m not implying DMS/OMS won’t catch on but rather the OEMs in an effort to get compliant for next year will stay with ADAS driven options and forego their 5 star rating until they are ready with a solution that suits them from a tech/ cost standpoint - this is what is potentially delaying us getting awarded the contract wins we are expecting
SEYE down 14% today ! As Lewbo says small contract and way down the line in 2026. Seize, I have to say I’m starting to feel like the OEMs really don’t care about 5 Star rating and I don’t say that glibly. There is no question that DMS/ OMS are the new value adds to ADAS but my guess is that subject to cost OEMs are trying to decide what best to include in the ‘stack’ they choose balancing price vs claimable benefits. Can anyone tell me if NCAP requirements are a legal requirement or can OEMs decide to opt out and forego the 5 Stars. From the huge volume of business Mobileye are posting I’m getting a strong feeling many OEMs are happy to stay with enhanced ADAS and avoid DMS/ OMS - is that why we are not seeing the contracts come to fruition as fast as we’d hoped - where are the Qualcomm contracts after a 2 year relationship - again I hope I’m wrong !!
12 months from when this article was written by Colin after CES 2022, SEE have gone on to recently announce further collaborations with Omnivision, Ambarella, Magna and Qualcomm - all mentioned here. Thought it would be good to refresh everyone’s memory as to what he said and how he pieces it all together.
https://www.eetasia.com/seeing-machines-might-be-the-next-arm/
Looks like we’re all up today!
https://stocks.apple.com/AS4CXPTUnSQqq1OWJeyKgZw
Back to SEE - great article in AI Automotive
https://www.ai-online.com/2023/01/seeing-machines-monitoring-vehicle-occupants-through-rearview-mirror-mounted-camera/
This is my third Mobileye related post today and perhaps explains some of the open questions from my last one. I don’t think their CES presentation has been posted before ( but apologies if so ) and highlights Prof Shashua their CEO talking about the future. Whilst it’s a bit techy and lecture- like it’s a fascinating insight into their strategy and where they see driver tech going particularly as relates to autonomous. It’s also about 57 mins so stuck with it. What’s interesting is that they want to move away from the previous terminology using Level 1-5 and substitute with 3 so called phases - Hands On/Eyes On - Hands Off/Eyes On and Hands Off/Eyes Off as better descriptors of what’s likely to happen in practice. The presentation is built around these phases and perhaps addresses why we are experiencing frustrating delays to firm contract announcements. It’s clear that OEMs are facing continuing challenges, as new thinking and technology is presented to them, as to the best way to deploy these in future releases and avoid costly relaunches. So whilst we all know that driverless cars are not going to be prevalent anytime soon Shashua outlines the projected path OEMs may take by deploying their ‘shadow phase Supervision tech’ as an acceptable development path to future higher levels of automation. Is this perhaps a factor in OEMs being slow to decide on their preferred driver safety solutions. In one respect this could be very good news for SEE as in the intermediary supervision phase they believe DMS is an absolute requirement and this could very well be where we could certainly be an acquisition target by them to fill their gap in capability. Their bread and butter though has been in ADAS and this is certainly not going away as it’s very clear that their $19 billion pipeline is still providing a huge base business for them and is growing. Will
ADAS alone be sufficient to satisfy NCAP requirements, well we don’t seem to think so but despite DMS appearing to be the current desirable feature it’s clear from Mobileyes projections that OEMs are still signing up in a big way for ADAS.
Anyway lots of questions still in my mind but as always highly informative.
https://youtu.be/UCBlR4QFQCA
https://twitter.com/mobileye/status/1615707917864558595?s=46&t=alFPn9msnG-zBqwnIY9kEA
This may well be another reason SEE are happy to publicise our tech is very much part of enabling the growing autonomous segment. Just look at the SP target Deutsche Bank has put on Mobileye - this equates to over $40bn market cap. double their recent IPO. There’s a general view here that Mobileye are done in ADAS with no NCAP approved DMS tech for the new rules - I just can’t see how this can be the case given the levels of sales growth they are delivering - I’m convinced as OEMs look for the most cost effective compliant safety systems they are still choosing Mobileye and hence why the whole contract winning process is quiet - I hope I’m wrong but what are they selling that drives that type of valuation ?
https://stocks.apple.com/Ab7Vqvvx7Qz2nP2I4iaDGJg
I hadn’t really internalised the wording of last weeks SEE tweet to accompany the This Money article but it’s the first time I can recollect the company acknowledging certainly an autonomous driving enabler especially after all the Tesla negative PR. Might just indicate that behind the scenes lots of work going on with OEMs who are still pushing the tech forward.
‘As the self-driving car industry grows and new safety standards are introduced, our state-of-the-art DMS technology can enable semi- and autonomous driving, ensuring everyone gets home safely.’
https://twitter.com/seeingmachines/status/1615197216393646080?s=46&t=fuew42jRN4-wgLBpHZGgEw
You ask the perennial question Seize about manipulation of SP and whilst we are constantly reminded that now we have an automated exchange and so not possible I have scratched my head for years after watching the SP fluctuate on varying levels of share activity. Today is another great example with only 5 million changing hands and yet clearly whilst it’s been nudging up towards 7p over the last few days there clearly have been no takers and therefore it’s been yanked down to 6.75p. I would love to see a forensic analysis by hour of the share price movement versus the volumes traded bought and sold to try and get behind whether there is any correlation or not - great project for CFP !!!
https://twitter.com/qualcomm/status/1615518921250988042?s=46&t=hpr3wDjFlXCn9et2ayIvIQ
Re KPI’s
So the great news is that we’re now in a new quarter so Q2 KPI’s now being gathered. Last quarter they were published on 23rd November 2 months on but I guess given the data is coming direct source we have to accept the delay. Hopefully over time that gap will shorten but we’re over half way through Jan now so how about a few contracts to keep the bed warm whilst we’re waiting Paul !!
Who wants to be in our gang ??
https://twitter.com/qualcomm/status/1612903381017714692?s=46&t=VAoBS1DxrNE3x2voqYkRXA
Couldn’t access as I don’t subscribe but similar article..
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1002425/arm-holdings-has-seen-revenue-at-its-automotive-business-more-than-double-since-2020-report-1002425.html
Lots of pipelines getting filled out there - be nice if we could get some gushing out way !!
https://stocks.apple.com/AyYZJcFn7Q8WS4xxqhFyGwQ
Excellent PR job done now let’s see some contracts!
https://twitter.com/seeingmachines/status/1612298121085652992?s=46&t=iikv_2Tnfmq3R9PmGKyS6A
That’s good news Seize and thanks for finding - I knew I’d seen something! Part of me also thinks that the broader our collaboration is and the more horses we can ride a la Magna, Ambarella and Omnivision etc the longer we can build value by staying independent. Yes ultimately the deepest pockets may want to bid but whilst we are an important building block for all - more business has to come our way.
https://www.valeo.com/en/driver-monitoring/
QC on twitter:
https://twitter.com/qualcomm_eu/status/1611469873833459713?s=46&t=k5g-vrPxTI98amUYrI7FHg
Can anyone here remember what if anything is our relationship with Valeo. The video they have just put out for CES looks like their sensors etc are very much part of our system. QC have also announced they are working closely with Valeo so might be another piece of collaborative news strengthening our reach.https://www.valeo.com/en/driver-monitoring/https://twitter.com/qualcomm_eu/status/1611469873833459713?s=46&t=k5g-vrPxTI98amUYrI7FHg
https://twitter.com/seeingmachines/status/1611897296953958400?s=46&t=TuSciwvUvI7lRhwM3U_yoA