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Last word in my opinion these are a good buy at this price for the long term holder and I am certainly not selling, hopefully the market will come to terms with what it expected, after its horror seeing it in black and white, and we’ll end nearer flattish

Read my earlier posts today and earlier in the week, which resulted in a whipping for being a pessimist. Turns out cash is down by over $50m if I read it right and free cash flow by 85%. These figures are no worse than expected but the market hates seeing such misery in black and white and potentially this year no cash flow at all. We have one even worse set to come in 6 months, then back to more like this and then in 2023 upwards tho whether we’ll ever get back to 2019 profit is doubtful. This is not my fault, I am only the messenger of the board’s figures and trying to explain our share price not as a conspiracy but because of the money we make taking a tumble, as eve Occam’s razor the simplest answer is likeliest

I am afraid every reason share hhalved as cash flow appears to me down 85%, the encouraging thing to me is share price hasn’t fallen further as many like me believe in the 2023 recovery, however Mis Market won’t be amused to see these figures in black and white even if heralded, nor the next heralded to be even worse at current gold price. Then upwards

Even better divi only down a 3rd and final at 5c should be up

Sorry cash flow down 85% from $101m to $16m, but dividend only down 50%, so still as expected which pleases me as if we keep on course, which we seem to be doing,2023 should be great. Hope markets reacts reasonably and we stay flat or even up a little bit, rather than the market feigning surprise at such a precipitous drop albeit heralded and partly a result of previous stronger dividend payment we can no longer afford

Yes, and first half free cash flow only down from $70m to $16m, so only a 77% drop. What is great is we had any. Imho

$105m is 9cents, unless gold and hence profits suddenly soar.

The news looks the best we could have imagined….as long as there isn’t an about turn, now for the results next week

Yes Red Sparrow your post was far more interesting tho my understanding is why badgers are on this board is the inverse geometric correlation between their numbers and the price of gold. Gold’s alpha relates to badgers’ beta, the relative risk to badgers around here is greedy farmers, badgers numbers go down as they illegally cull them when food prices go down and they worry about their profit, food prices going down is deflationary, however as Sunshine Gold says “ Gold is neither a perfect inflation nor deflation hedge. Its price also depends on the market sentiment and risk aversion ”; when badgers’ risk aversion exceeds the market’s risk aversion gold should rise and vice versa. It is highly complex, but as Andrew MaGuire says gold should always go up, the corollary of which is badgers’ numbers go down, except both don’t. Maybe the absence of badgers in Egypt has something to do with it, or maybe some long range ones secretly burrowed under the Sukari wall and brought it down, hoping to increase their numbers. A fruitful subject of research and badgers are v worth of being included on this board, ad the price of old cars etc and all that affects the gold price and our beloved Centamin. Thanks RedSPARROW and a great weekend all

My thought is ultimately a currency plunge isn’t bad as purchases from abroad such as oii, mining equipment etc cost the same amount of gold and silver ounces but the workforce costs fewer? The bigger challenge is unrest, unpredictability and far higher tax. Castillo seems to verge from nationalise the mines, to not at all and will employ a respected world bank economist as finance minister, to switching back again to a far left PM and the respected potential finance minister runs. It is the unpredictability that has led to biggest outflow from Peru funds this week for 8 years. I am hoping Hoc makes a double bottom here, but that depend on Castillo doing another switch towards the centre again imho

Gosh looks grim, of course we associate bigoted with right wing, but in Peru seems they are true traditional communists espousing great intolerance,, rather than socialists or decent liberals Peru needs, poor Peru and scary for Hoc too

In the final results 22 March this year it said “ The Board reiterates its intention to recommend a minimum 2021 dividend of US$105 million (interim and final)”. You are of course quite right the last 3c was the final from 2020 following an interim 6c (I said these figures from memory), so total will be 9 cents again, but not necessarily in same split between interim and final as last year but makes more sense to keep the same, as 6c now and 3c later

They have already said they will make a final dividend payment of 6c, to make a total of 9c, $115m from memory, paid partly out of reserves as not enough profit this year and next to cover it; this should be announced with the interim results. I do hope your worry is not proved right, as it would be very surprising if they went back on this, and probably shocking for the share price

I think the Omi TSX trading is so thin that it really doesn’t matter, we often see biggish moves on tiny volume that are not reflected in London, omi’s main market, the following morning

Gnome I think Cey PE will be a fair bit over 20 this year, even with the halved share price, as earning will fall quite a bit more than the share price . Let’s see what first half results show shortly. However the plan is it should return to around 12 where it was in 2023, if things for once go according to plan, but will Barrick believe that, or believe they can make a plan work, and will they want to have in effect a minority share in a mine after profit share and royalty?

Well I said sell on the rumour buy on the fact, so expected Hoc to turn up when Castillo won on 6th June, instead Mr Market, ever confounding, was waiting for his confirmation giving us a miserable near two months, following the miserable months of anticipation. I am looking forward to our first half results, we seem rather good value now

Well Super Hoc is not falling back on a hedge, it already is, and currently has 4m oz hedged at $27 so is making around $2 an ounce extra, so an extra $8m profit! For once they got something right as have been hedged around 6 months already making extra profit - however they were very clear did it not for extra profit but to avoid Pallancata slipping into loss as increasingly high cost.

interestingly in Q2 Hoc seem to have used a gold/silver ratio of 86, which is about 20% more than it is which means they overvalue gold by 20% or undervalue silver by 20%. Silver mined is 3.1m oz and at the correct current ratio gold mined 3.85m oz. therefore about 45% silver, 55% gold, but worth remembering a third of the silver is hedged, so IF gold stayed level and silver fell only 30% of our output would be affected by the fall. ie the mix for next two years is 55% gold, 30% silver and 15% fixed interest silver as hedged

The metals that contribute to the gold equivalent ounces are gold and silver, the metals Hoc mines. SanJose is usually mainly gold like Inmaculada. The only remaining mainly silver mine is now Pallancata which is growing old and expensive, Arcata is now closed for same reasons. They wisely hedged a chunk ofPallancata silver sales at around $27, as at current silver prices profit there is even tighter and much lower makes a loss. Hoc has shifted from being a silver miner with gold to a gold miner with silver.

Buffet bought Barrick in second quarter 2020, when Covid was new in USA and it’s future unknown, and gold soaring, he then sold Barrick again when a vaccine was shown to work last autumn since when Barrick has fallen about 30%. Smart as ever, especially when gold has been on a downward trajectory that looks set to accelerate (TD amongst others issued another sell note today as gold has failed to perk up even as real interest rates fall). People like me are th muggins who resolutely hang on, not Buffet, one reason he is rather richer imho