Member Info for Sotolo

Hardly ever, haven’t sold since sold half my remaining half at 41, (having sold half around 4p earlier) then have bought al of these back from time to time, and a few more, last week at 21, which hasn’t worked out that well I should have held off all. So I still have about 50,000 bought at over £2 but luckily the remaining 700k cost rather less, quite a few at under 10p to reduce average. Now I just hold and occasionally add but here for the very long term and ever hopeful, so far a triumph of experience over hope

It would be a great honour for me to be Seingred who trades these shares, and I would be a lot richer than mainly just holding, but sadly I am not he or she who makes interesting helpful and informed intelligent comment unlike some her who are surprisingly intolerant of debate which is so helpful in choosing shares to hold sell or buy

Masks, I don’t think you understand a “short” book which means you want the price to fall. I posted that the price is over 10 fold down on when I first bought in 2005 but I continue to hold 750k, as the current share price “could be about right? And if gold zooms back into fashion could double or quadruple as it is?” Also if the 5m inferred goes up. As Seingred posted this am, not ramping this share but posting reasonable comment on when and how it might rise is not shorting. It is a shame many don’t countenance intelligent thought about how and why the share is where it is and what should make it go, as interests us long term holders, but maybe like you try to influence the price with their words.

Am I the only poster left here my last posts 10 days and 5 days ago and no others. Is it misery at tumbling rh now $15250, which our share price fell anticipating the big fall. How much further with Toyota saying further reduced production next few months and Benz and BMW saying long term lower output? Or Will the likes or Maruri and Mahindra make this up when they can eventually get chips?

Blondee, gold price as around $200 when I first bought into Uruguay Minerals, at over 250p, as Orosur used to be called, and costs near that. I bought many more in 2016 when costs had shot up to nearer $1200 but gold was going above that so potentially very profitable at a $1250 gold price. Except it urned out that without us being told costs kept going above the gold price, above $1300etc and the Uruguay mine went bust and the share price crumble to a few pence. So I don’t know where you get $800 costs and $1200 sales as you will find profits never turned out to support costs well below sales, sadly I felt rather conned but kept them for tax loss, sold half to create a six figure loss when I sold my own small company, and wa amazed when the other half recovered to 40p when cashed in half of those. The remaining 750k I have is for sentimentality and dreams but this company has historically been a long and very miserable destruction of capital, and hopefully the present has nothing at all to do with those past figures you quote, with some people who know what they are doing in charge of mining who will of course take most of the profit.

Thanks Seingred. The article seems to say each inferred ounces valued between $10 dollars and $100, depending on how popular gold is at the time. So if 5m oz inferred would give us a market cap $50m-$500m, but as we will own a quarte $12m-$120m. With gold out of fashion each ounce currently valued about about $20. currently worth about $100m so our quarter worth Bout $25m. . Our current maker cap is around double that $50m, , but then factor in hope for finding more, other prospects, the tin etc and it could be about right? And if gold zooms back into fashion could double or quadruple as it is?
However the hope is

The problem Steve, and others who look back at the higher share price, is that, despite higher gold price, ounces are down and costs have risen so much that profits look likely to be more than halved, hence much lower share price. IF the company can get costs including capex down from their currently outrageously high levels AND get ounce mined back up which helps costs, then our price should shoot back up. However given Centamin history and historic mining inflation this is an IF. Plus mining investors are worried that gold will fall when interest rates rise, and that gold shares will tumble as usual when the market crashes and demands lower PE’s imho

Amnesia, thought it was clear and you read it right. If I was going to get 75% of your house in just a few years why would I bother to pay you for it now, So I can’t see why they would buy us out now.

I still don’t understand why Newmont Agnico should pay for us when they get 75% for the exploration costs they would have to pay anyway, ie nothing?

Vicjain….and lack of profits for many years, many of my investments like this offer profits in the distant future but a lot can happen before that distant future, hence the share price

Duster, sadly not, as well as reduce output more important total costs inc capex are up around 50% since gold was $1200 an ounce, and at that price we would be losing lots on every ounce mined, it is profit that counts and we should make a fair bit less this year than when gold was $1200. Profits are a function of gold price, less costs, times ounces mined, so if gold price rises but costs rise faster and/or ounces mined fall more, then profits and share price fall. The problem with many of my shares such as this Hoc and Omi is they expect profit recoveries in the future, but a lot can happen before we get to the future (just look at COVID) so current profits are really more important unless in a rapidly growing company (such as tech) rather than one hopefully recovering from Mistakes like ours imho

Centamin 3000 trades today, Hocschild 1400 and THS…..19!

Phoebus when I needed to sell half a couple of years ago it took me 20 trades, you just have to do it a few thousand pounds at a time

Surely this is not the place for continuing Brexit postulating, rather what affects Cey and where next. I said I would be surprised if Centamin could end Friday at 100 but was hugely pleased it made 99. Us long term holders are waiting for the truth of negative interest rates and money printing to sink in finally lifting gold, and cey to recover its production and more important it’s far increased costs…..one day but of course it would be lovely if it was this autumn. Cey now is particularly geared to the gold price with costs so high so if gold were to rise it should do better than most miners. Now pop down the pub and argue about brexit, old cars, Boris Johnson, how everything used to be better (not) etc

You rather prove my point that most investors don’t quite get how Africa is growing. I was referring to 20 years out: Statista says Africa will have over 2billion people by 2040, 2.5 billion by 2050 (backed up by the Economist). China’s population is actually expected to shrink to around 1.4billion by 2050. Even now Africa has almost overtaken China 1.37bn to 1.43bn and it is over 3 times the size of China now including Tibet. So rather than “I don’t think so” to Africa’s population in 20 years read the statistics and remember that the parts of the world with the highest populations come to the fore as we did in the Industrial Revolution with our exponential growth, then the USA and more recently China. Of course Africa is many countries and it depends on governeremo but it is going to mean an awful lot of cars in my opinion. Nigeria alone should have as many people as Europe or USA by 2050

Yes interesting: Hoc share price was thwacked when they first bought out the rare earth mine, not helped by delays, and increasing Chilean taxes. However I am hoping the naysayers will be proved wrong at this delayed presentation (promised back in July etc) and we shall get some proper numbers and good news on how much profit we can expect, and timetable.

Quite agree but think ordinary investors do not understand this, or that Africa is over 3 times the size of China or USA, has the highest growth rate in the world, will have doubled its population in the next 20 years, to have far more people than China and USA combined and lousy electrical infrastructure. It will be like Asia on steroids but completely passes most westerners by, another Eason methinks for THS flat price. India Indonesia etc also growing fast needing lorries buses scooters and more and more cars.

Analysts haven’t a clue

Also the spread isn’t actually 5%, more like 3% if you look at the buy and sell quotes which for a share this little traded is probably about the norm

Unbelievably low volume imho