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Steve not lazy. Tulips were introduces to Holland in 1593, they rapidly became coveted as luxuries and started going up and down in price. Short selling was already banned in 1610. By 1634 foreign speculators entered the market. Prices continued to rise into 1636, then reached a peak and collapse in 1637. The South Sea co lasted 9 years till its collapse. Just my view Crypto is another of these but I may be completely wrong but not lazy so why not just say you disagree rather than being pejorative. Everyone’s view here is valid especially when founded, why do you think Cryptos will keep going, I suppose impressionist art and houses have but not in such a bubble like way? A final sentence from the Wikipedia tulip article to chew on: “ The existence of the plague may have helped to create a culture of fatalistic risk-taking that allowed the speculation to skyrocket in the first place”. Now far more important how many goes will it take gold to break through 1835?

Candid, hopefully yes, looking at the past gold should now rise as real interest rates look very likely to fall further. However historically as said the opportunity cost of holding gold is versus bonds, whose real rates are going even further down, good for gold. Butnow gold is also competing with qe elevated shares and cryptos, so when that tulip mania bursts and the dust settles gold will hopefully be off to the races. However this summer I visited the stunning Houghton Hall that Robert Walpole built on his south sea bubble profits, these things can go further than you think possible,…..

Yes Cane gold is still range bound and gold could break out either way, as you say if down would be a bloodbath for gold mining shares, but the converse also applies. I certainly have no idea which way it will go and I am. It sure anyone has, tho historically as said lower real interest rate should pull it up, but history didn’t have bitcoin and qe together, rather it wa the opportunity cost of holding gold v bonds,

Careful what you wish for, as frequently said more news is not necessarily good for share prices, it depends not on how good it is but on whether better or worse than expected and the one is as likely as the other as we have found out. I would hold off topping up as might get them cheaper

However presumably the escalating electricity costs will affect ths…

On another note for those who say it is just the PM price, and these miners of similar size mover more or les together, 20 months ago Hoc share price was 20% below Cey, now it is 66% higher, despite having had bad production higher costs and lousy politics. I follow the difference which is back out to Hoc 60p above Cey and should go back to the high of this difference ove 100p before Cey hopefully gets its act together and catches up as should be a great company if they could just get a handle of those exorbitant costs, partly by getting output back towards 500k oz imho

Yes Auson but Cey Hoc etc don’t all move together always, especially now; I think Hoc was unfairly undervalued with the others as profits will not fall as much as Cey, and the market seems to have realised this with Hoc outperforming Cey, up 20% over the month but Cey has stayed flat, while gold has risen from 1750. Therefore they don’t just move in tandem to gold but also on what people think of future profits so how the actual companies are doing. Horgan remains to prove himself which is why we keenly await the final quarter and the annuals. Hopefully the market has punished Cey sufficiently leaving it flat as gold rises, that it will begin to rise as/if gold goes further. I moved a chunk to Hoc and now hold 50% more Hoc than Cey as I thought a better play currently having been over penalised. I still expect Hoc to rise faster if PM’s do despite their hefty silver hedge imho. Conclusion Cey not just affected by price of gold but costs rising faster than rivals and ounces down more imho. This needs to change too!

FURTHER TO MYMPOSTFROM THE FT THIS MORNING, GOLD MUST CATCH UP SOON, I AM WAITING: The surge in inflation is leaving the world’s leading economies with their lowest real interest rates in decades,… Real interest rates “will remain at historically low levels for the next several years”, said Elena Duggar, managing director at the rating agency Moody’s. In the US, where nominal interest rates are near zero, real rates stand at around -5.3 per cent. They are at -3 per cent in the UK and -4.6 per cent in Germany, according to Financial Times analysis.

Cane toad you are right that gold does not move directly with inflation. However it does seem to move with the inverse of real interest rates. At the moment with nominal interest rates expected to barely rise, rises in inflation reduce real interest rates ever further which should be supportive for gold. https://www.longtermtrends.net/gold-vs-real-yields/

Yes Vicjain, a bit like gold, or a clockwork toy, the spring winding up and up and the l9ngerbit winds the further it will go, but with gold and omi none of us know whether they will break out shooting up or down; I hope the former, fear the latter

Just so Steve, roll on Dec 1 for better or worse, and roll on gold finally getting off on the fast falling real interest rate, I expect a market tumble taking us down as investors raise liquidity and PE rates rise, even if gold rises at first, but then is to come very good as rest of market suffers. The big question is when, and maybe not quite yet as Powell is still letting real rates fall

Tornado over 3months Cey has underperformed gxj by -13.4% to -9.8%, year to day -31.4% to -17%, 2 years -32% to -1% and 5 years -41% to +30%. The price is an expectation of profit cemented by what profit actually is. A poster suggested we should shoot up on Dec 1st news, all I said is this is not definite and the continually falling share price compared to Gdx suggests we need a larger gold price rise than we are having to get us going. I think Dec 1st is likely to make a difference but more the end of year financials but which way I don’t know, nor how badly the news will be taken. Of course gold is a huge influence on the shares but as the above figures show rising gold does not convert to rising profits IF ounces fall and costs rise faster. So we badly need to see how bad the figures are, we have been told but will they be better or worse, which could give us a rerate to gold, tho hopefully not in the usual direction…down

Patryk depends on whether Dec 1st news is better or worse than expected. We know what to expect but not which way it will differ, not how investors will react when we see the figures in Black and White. The price says the market is a bit worried….

Obviously depends on the news and if different go what is expected, if worse price will fall if better rise. However worth remembering not all news is good news, that is why it is news.

Listen to this if link copies, thanks to Rathkum on the advfn board from Lawrence Lepard who runs equity management associates a pm investor. He says Of Hoc, I like it a lot (with lot emphasised), silly cheap really cheap really really cheap, I love it. He goes on to be even keener

Www.YouTube.com/watch?v=QSdJtJfHqEw&t=3s

Candid, Agnico reported today highlighting what is happening even if production rising. “The company said income was down due to lower average realized metal prices and higher production costs, partially offset by higher sales volumes.Payable production was up 541,663 ounces, 9% higher than the same period a year ago.
All-in sustaining costs were $1,011 ounce. The company warned of rising costs stating that inflationary pressures have accelerated.” So gold prices lower, for us production lower too, costs up with hefty mining inflation, for us costs up more with our lower production and hefty wall costs. Hence my expectation of lower profit for second half but we shall see.

Yes over 5 years Hoc and Cey have lost 43% and 41%. The thing people don’t seem to get is even if everything stays the same they are wasting assets so the price steadily falls unless they find new cheap resources. I hope they will, Cey will reveal this in their upcoming life of mine, and hopefully Hoc will find more, now they have ramped up exploration pushing up aisc, particularly at Pallancata that is fast running out and had to be hedged, luckily at around $27, as it would be struggling now. Both take the staircase down so can get out of kilter as one has a bad step (Cey the mine wall and lower production) or the other (Arcata being closed as running out, same upcoming with Pallancata) or their respective politics. Gold need to be higher each year for same profit to account for lower production and higher costs, in both; nature of many mature mines. So we need it to rise quickly. For Cey a lot depends on this year’s profit, if really $100m and this is the nadir (with gold at this price) bodes well. Both are at least taking some initiatives, Cey with new concessions (tho what value/cost they have we will see) and taking some tough W Africa choices, Hoc with the much poo pooed at the time rare earths, and ramping up exploration spending for more resource. However one does think both have had a tough time reflected in their price and just a little rise in gold could turn them, or a big fall could sink them. Good morning.

I did say IF silver stays up prof, but Hoc is like a piece of elastic

Sorry my stupidity but where did you read the $60m profit for the first half? My second point below that you refer to was predicated on this year's earnings per share being quite a bit below the average eps of 11cents over the last 5 years when ave share price has been about 140, all best

If silver stays up yes it can last. Hoc moves in jumps. It tumbled hugely o n political worry; as mentioned here last month I bought more around 135 on the good political news, this will take a while to percolate into the shares. Floating bioatlantides means not only the mine won’t need to spend cash to develop it but a is purer gold play and roper for a takeover. Exploration has perked up a bit, and there is little snip. So now it all depends on the gold and silver price ….but with a following wind this could do very well and is worth holding in case