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I think a lot of people compare to same quarter in 2019 as Covid was such a disruptor, though of course I hope you are right and we see a sizeable rise at 8am

There haven’t been any good results for a long while, profits steadily falling until/if they turn which needs in order of importance higher gold price (down around 10% on the year in real terms), reduce costs (that have soared) and more ounces (that have fallen.

Incidentally 4th quarter results tomorrow but not expecting then to do very much either way, we are at the mercy of the gold price waves and as said earlier no-one, least of all banks and analysts, has the least idea which way it will go, though Id like to find that monkey with a dart.

a Thanks Gnome, the forecasts for the gold price are probably no better than a Monkey throwing a dart, as with shares they consistently beat the average prediction which tends to go with what happened before, but this is in the market and the unexpected moves price. This year almost all pundits call for falling gold which may be hopeful.
b. Gold price has not just fallen in nominal terms over the last year, but worse in real terms has fallen an extra $100 dollars from inflation. It needs to be rising around $10 a month just to stay level in real terms and it isn’t. It is surprising our share price isn’t falling even further.
C. As Mr Bond I can’t see much of a takeover premium in the share price as Centamin could only sell half Sukari ownership so a buyer would be dependent on Emra support. Oils Emra
Want Barrick too powerful?

Yes Wolfy, hardly exciting news for a gold miner that they can now definitely sink money down a tin hole to keep the bosses busy; the history of gold miners forever has been that, rather than sticking to knitting as efficiently as possible thinking of shareholders, they are keener to aggrandise bosses in capital destroying projects. The tin of course may not be that but still even longer to wait for OMI to become profitable and justify a share price, and more cash going out not in! Around 10p seems about fair while we wait it out, but gosh why keep extending our anguish

An honest spin , trying to explain the share price, wish more could/would do that as on these boards you tend to get a preponderance of over optimism that can lead one to lose money. I am often optimistic having been increasing my Tharisa but the they are on a PE of around 3 rather than infinity

I think I will hang on as ever as despite this waste, hoping Anza will come very good, maybe wishful thinking but I am a wishful thinker, however obviously others are balancing the buyers pretty much

To me it is disappointing news. If there was such a strong likely hood of loads of tin wouldn’t Meridian have raised to small money in mining terms without giving up so much? And for us it will use up all our cash and then mean more dilution with no promise of what we’ll find in a new business. So hardly surprised at lack of great excitement. I wish Orosur could exploit its current concessions profitably before going off on a money eating tangent, but for bosses it is fun…if not shareholders

This is a detailed report posted by Tiger over on the Tharisa board as to where they see Platinum Group Metals and Gold going. Over next 8 years they conclude that Platinum will rise every year, while Gold will fall every year single year. If That turns out right, it means concentration on costs is ever more important if Cey is to eke out profits as this grinding decade goes on. However I do notice at the end it says the report is paid for by Sylvaner Platinum, though it doesn’t hold out hope for them either as suggests rhodium will be flat to 2030 with a bit of a fall first, and Platinums small rise will be obviated by Palladium’s fall. They may be a bit easier however to predict than gold where the demand affecting price, with a fairly fixed supply, is very much investment not industrial, and the huge withdrawals from etf’s are very sentiment driven and could reverse, who knows?

Wisco quite agree!

Sorry this is another gloomy one, today’s FT article headlined: “Gold struggles to attract investors as interest rates rise headwinds gather amid heavy outflows fro ETF’s backed by the precious metal”. They talk to a number of banks etc and suggest gold will continue to fall through 2022 with the outflow of investment demand accelerating. I sincerely hope it is wrong.

Yes we have stayed loyal still with 532040 shares, these were worth £1.15m the summer before last, now worth about £470k, hence no building . I wish more posters had given reasons for it to fall as I never believe myself against so much positivity, though Tiger by the Tail was great in seeing the long fall, selling near the top and moving into Tharisa where I followed and am very hopeful - rhodium up 25% this week!. I still believe different, though respectful views on these boards are helpful, especially in these increasingly bullying times, so enjoy the views of brexiteers and remainders, vaccine supporters and antivaxers, lock down and mask champions and their opponents, Tory Lib Green and Labour voters and especially those who see Cey rising and falling, as dialectic, or Socratic dialogue, is what leads to informative conclusions. The big question here, of the last few years, remains what happens to gold shares when the debt bubble comes home to roost and the stock market crashes , that all the above arguments contribute to; more interesting contributions on that and other influences on the Cey share price very welcome to me and hopefully others, especially if could possibly be without the accompanying modern social media insults to any different view or tribe.

This is an interesting and salutary read, another reason gold miners have fallen as their costs are a boy to explode, though hopefully ours will be somewhat mitigated by our solar investment: https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/gold-price-framework-vol-2-the-energy-side-of-the-equation-part-ii

“We find that gold miners are not just exposed to significant direct energy costs such as fuels and power; their indirect energy exposure is even larger. Our bottom up analysis shows that ~50% of production costs of the average gold miner are closely linked to energy prices….
gold mining is also energy intensive beyond the diesel and electricity that is consumed to mine and process the gold and cool the underground mines. Gold mining requires a lot of energy intensive resources and materials such as steel, chemicals, cement and tires and also machinery (trucks, excavators, mills) which consume energy in the manufacturing process. Ultimately even wages partially reflect energy costs as changes in energy prices affect the living costs such as housing and food of workers. We call these the indirect energy costs. We presume that the companies don’t even know themselves what the true energy exposure of these costs is. However, for this report, we meticulously dissected the expense side of the income statements of the largest gold producers in the world in order to estimate how much these indirect energy costs drive the expense side of gold mining.
Our bottom up analysis shows that ~50% of production costs of the average gold miner are closely linked to energy prices.” I

The conclusion is “ 1% change in longer-dated energy prices impacts gold prices by about 0.5%.”. This hasn’t happened yet or gold. Oil is up 60% on the year, gold should be up 30% to compensate for increased costs but it isn’t, it is down 5%, of course in real term over 10%. Hence higher costs not compensated by higher price and much lower profits and dividends. At thes oil prices we need gold at 2400 according to this article, here is hoping….also interesting Merryn Somerset Webb in FT today again on oil and inflation. It is why the aisc metric is to me far more important than any other, is currently very high and waiting to see if Horgan can really get it down where it was, Mistress Market doesn’t really thing so hence our price imho

Thanks Cowichan for the useful information as ever. Many members of this board are respectful both of those who have pointed out every reason the share should rise over the last 18 months under the wondrous new management, and those who try to explain why they think it hasn’t and won’t. I find both immensely useful as markets are made by balancing those who think a share will rise and buy, with those who think the opposite. It would be great if some less respectful members could be less defensive and understand criticism and looking out for and pointing out the downsides as well as upsides is a vital part of both management and investing - one reason I don’t appreciate management (not ours) who only try to talk up a share and usually get caught out. Sadly there seems even less honesty in mining than some other industries, especially those where we consume or see the product, so it is up to knowledgable people here to do their best to hold management to account as well as praising them, and thank you all so much . Have a lovely weekend after a relatively nice finish for us this week.

Rh now up over 20% this week.

Dear Viable. I am unfortunately just as edgy about the inability to address the share price trough. When Horgan was appointed gold was $1580, and our share price around 140p. He and the board, much admired here, had to contend with some unfortunate things coming home to roost. However almost two years in, and with a higher gold price, it is somewhat disappointing that the share price has nearly halved and still seems to be falling. The story he told was of a nadir now and from here steady improvement returning back to where we were. The share price looks forward so why are we still not seeing this, the yield isn’t what it seems and the dividend is likely to fall but then it should recover, so the inability to convince the market and address the share price deepening trough has been deeply concerning to me too imho.

On another note Barclays Smartinvestor STILL hasn’t even sent out their corporate action not offering options on what to do with the Aclara shares that cannot be held with them, so holders are in limbo and their sale is overhanging the market

I was talking about miners across the board, costs are up, and gold is down over the last year, yes prices were higher when gold was lower because profits were higher with lower costs, more left to mine more cheaply; all gold mines run out and becomes more expensive to find more, particularly the case for Hoc, which also suffers difficult politics/higher costs and taxes in Argentina and Peru. What is your ultimate explanation for investors avoiding gold miners if not expectations of lower profits? That the market makers are selling loads they don't have - then where are they getting them from if it goes on and on across an entire industry,; lower profit expectations in a rising cost and interest rate background seems the Occam's razor explanation to me?

Kando, as said a. week ago seeing reasons to doubt your lovely expectation of a post Xmas usual gold rise "my point is gold usually gets going before Xmas, but sadly this year gold is down $60 since mid Nov, a sore disappointment as I had been hoping for it to get going over the last month; so I haven’t seen the signs tho of course ever hopeful. Good luck all". Sadly hope isn't enough and gold is having a tough time fighting rising interest rates....

Rh up 60% since low three months ago, and up 15% in two days. The basket is now over $2600, tho still a long way to go till over $4000 again. However I don’t think the market has noticed and I have bought some more