Member Info for Sotolo

Yes it is truly horrid, I pay 38.1% dividend tax, so on cad $1.70 that they were overvalued at so I have to pay extra tax, I pay 65cents tax so will only get $1.05; but the price has fallen to around $1.25 so I am getting $0.20 for each $1.70 share so my tax rate 90% approx ($1.5).. And I haven’t been able to sell at a better price as Barclay’s still refuses to deal them. I think pretty appalling of Hoc to think so little of private shareholders.
Any other reason than the horrid forward guidance, resulting poor analyst views and dreadful treatment of private shareholders for the price collapse as silver and gold rise that anyone can think of. Thanks. I have stuck with this company a long time so this treatment of us is most upsetting to me.

I am afraid gold has often had 2 years down and more
1955 56 57
61 62 63
81 82
84 85
91 92
97 98 99
and more recently
2013 2014 2015

to answer Yepiyej, Auson is quite right, the Aisc is pretty awful, up 50% in 4 years and unlike Centamin doesn’t look exceptional with a plan to reduce back. Hence broker downgrades and big fall today. The aisc Problem for us is not just due to mining inflation but older mines with ounces getting more expensive to extract/replace
So we are entirely dependent on gold and to lesser extent silver price (and politics). The good thing is if they rise, being a very expensive miner we are more geared to any rise (apart from the silver hedged part), the bad is if they fall we make losses sooner than others.

Finally Yepyej, given this no one can say where or when Hoc will go as no one has least idea where gold will go, especially banks and pundits who are usually wrong. In the long term gold has kept pace with inflation, but in that long term we are all dead. I am hoping the real negative rates finally push it up, especially if bitcoin and techs fall but who knows…..

Presumably they think the trend is their friend and the price will continue to fall so they can by back cheaper later, on the whole that has been a good strategy over the last year as you will almost always find it lower than when you sold, wish I did that. Sadly many like me should stick to Ladbroke as have seen £300k here fall to five figures,, could have had a Rolls for that.

Sorry doesn’t do fractions so should read
Second take the hedged 3m oz out and we are roughly exposed one third to silver price two thirds to gold.

In reply to your question Hoc currently:
220m gold oz sell for $400m
12m silver oz sell for $ 290m
So first we are primarily a gold miner
Second take the hedged 3m oz out and we are roughly exposed ? to silver price ? gold. Therefore if silver rose by 100% and gold stayed the same our amount sold would go up by 33%
Ie there are much better ways to be exposed to sil er, however hopefully the market hasn’t worked this out and still thinks we are majorly a silver miner so our price will soar before they twig.
Appalling Pallancata is so long in the tooth and so expensive that we have to hedge it’s output as a small silver fall could take us to losses there

Not bad, 10% in two days, now waiting on PM prices and which way they go…

Yes Ilja is unbelievably helpful and better than any other company I’ve come across, which bodes well for Tharisa if employees are that good. On another note can anyone confirm next ex dividend date is 2nd march as for some reason I had it written as 27 Jan?

shame we no longer sell any

Thanks I missed that, so basically they grabbed $25 for quarter of our silver, so far of course the hedge has made great sense as we’ve been getting $27 for Pallancata, but in does mean we have only about 9m oz of silver that will benefit if silver rises. What is worse is Pallancata could be loss making without a hedge as costs there have become so high as silver runs out. Reaplacement ounces look good this year but not the cost of digging
them out.

Ok year with nicely increased cash and no mention of political problems which is encouraging, but even without them appears to predict a halving of next years profits unless gold/silver rise 15%. Also has hedging been increased at these low silver rates or is it the $27 silver hedge we knew about last year

phew this move has been a long time coming, let’s hope it holds and makes a new base for a renewed assault back on 1900, here is hoping as we are so often caught out

Chicken chart looking good? Seems to me to be falling after the lack of news other than the tin venture which will just cost money for a long time, as expected. There is a very long wait her and not many are prepared for the years of wait till jam tomorrow, I am

Halfpenny, of course historically long term gold has risen in line with inflation, but over the last year of inflation increasing, to this months whopping 7.5%, gold has fallen - an annual -10% in real terms so far, and hasn’t been a hedge at all. Could be because of worry if inflation is temporary, worry about nominal interest rates rising, competition from Bitcoin, or gold is just waiting catching us out as she goes, or investors just don’t like it, who knows…but if the trend is your friend it is a bit gloomy, added to unimpressive figures as Mrs Market points out

exactly, but will the boss pay up next year, and that is what the market questions, are these just more away days or real skills that will make proper money? On a more encouraging note RPI is 7.5% today so Cey would have to climb to 250p to get back to where it was at the top in real terms, so nearly 300% so quite a lot of these ghastly figures must be in the price, tho when if ever the investment yields this kind of growth is a bit doubtful, only exploding gold can do that imho

You may well be right Tornado, and s’more your rose tinted specs that appreciate every pound less profit mend 52.5 p less to Emra, bit like I am thrilled when my salary halves as more than a third less to taxman! (not)

I haven’t sold at all apart from a few a bit over 200, but still sadly have held 430k all the way down. Mea culpa. Yes the market do looks forward, which is the worry that next year reporting in Mar 2023 will be far worse that the one we have just had, at this gold price, and as said profits will be way down. However hopefully sometime in not too distant future markets should begin to consider 2024

Sorry to be clear profits predicted to be down 30% this year 2022, compare to last 2021 reported today.
Incidentally

2019
Gold oz 480k
Aisc $943

So 2022 aisc up an amazing over 50% more than halving profits compared to 2019 before reduced ounces thought of, obviated by increased gold price.

All with my simple sums but makes one think this is around the right share price which would be lower without the premium for hope built in for 23/24. I expect a drift down but what do I know…markets are v fickle and may be relieved no worse and as said nothing we don’t know (sadly not for the good either’

As expected nothing changed about poor 2021 compared to pre Covid years or the guidance that 2022 will be much worse. Remember profits are affected in order by gold price, aisc and then ounces, as any percentage change in gold price and aisc affect profits three times more than ounces mined and sold.
Gold goes up 7%
Aisc rises 12%
So profits down by around 30% this year compared to last

2021
415,370 oz for the twelve months of 2021
Aisc 1211
Capex 233

2022
Gold production of 430,000 to 460,000 oz 
·      Cash costs of US$900-1,000/oz produced
·      AISC of US$1,275-1,425/oz sold
·      Capex of US$215 million, including US$25 million of deferred solar and paste-fill plant construction expenditure from 2021

Hopefully the market know all of this and will begin to look toward 2023/24 and hole the management is right that costs will be controlled but of course also affected by hefty mine inflation.

We badly need a higher gold price to save us, but in real sterling terms still falling
Imho

This is the copy of Golgnome’s post of today, over on the Centamin board, I thought it was even more pertinent here, particularly as it quotes Neal Froneman, chief executive of Johannesburg-based Sibanye-Stillwater
CONTRY RISK SOUTH AFRICA/GOLD South Africa—Last May, three men strode into a suburban street and sprayed gunfire into a car, killing mining executive Nico Swart on his way to work.

Mr. Swart, 47 years old, had been a general manager at Richards Bay Minerals, or RBM, which is majority owned by global mining giant Rio Tinto PLC. His murder, which is still under investigation, marked another grim flashpoint in the decline of South Africa’s signature industry.

In June, protesters and looters attacked RBM operations, destroying property and mining equipment. In response, Rio Tinto declared force majeure on all customer contracts at RBM, employing the legal provision that excuses parties from contract terms because of unforeseen circumstances.

South Africa’s $24 billion mining sector, which has provided the raw material for nearly half the gold bullion and gold jewelry ever produced, is waning under the pressure of violent crime, growing costs and regulatory uncertainty, as well as tapped-out mines.

Some of the world’s most familiar mining brands have headed for the door, threatening severe consequences for South Africa’s struggling economy, which has also been walloped by Covid-19. The nation’s unemployment rate hit a record 34.9% last year. Mining employs more than 450,000 people and makes up some 8.4% of national economic output.

In recent years, South Africa’s metal refineries and processing plants have been the target of commando-style robberies carried out by Kalashnikov-toting gangs. Mining companies suffered 22 armed heists at precious-metal facilities in 2019 and 2020—a period of rising gold prices—as well as an attempted robbery in 2021, according to Minerals Council South Africa, an industry group.

“I’m very angry about what’s happening in South Africa, and disappointed,” said Neal Froneman, chief executive of Johannesburg-based Sibanye-Stillwater Ltd. , one of the world’s largest producers of platinum, palladium and gold. “But I have to put my personal views and emotions to one side. This is why we’re internationalizing our business.” The company in recent years has expanded mining operations to the U.S. and Finland.

The rest is not any better, but looks very grim for South Africa
I would put Sth African Gold Companies on a Hold or SELL

Q4 is always Jan, then Q1 Apr, Q2 Jul, Q3 Oct, Q4 Jan again, and then after that full year annual report?