Member Info for Sotolo

Ps very weird just now seeing the gold price
1944-1945
And thinking back to those years in Ukraine, that back then had barely survived 6m starved to death by Stalin in the 30’s, then more again with the German occupation, and then both fighting over it in those years.

Tibbs the truth is you are a really decent man, I try to be, sometimes we see things differently with you preferring to see the positive in Cey which is admirable, while I have always interrogated the negatives on anything I’ve worked on, thinking the positives will then take care of themselves, but in essence we both have our feet on the same ground, both our views I hope help here but most of all in an increasingly divided, opinionated and intransigent world tolerance and decency as with so many here are increasingly important. Thanks Tibbs, you cheered me up on a very grey morning.

From memory I think hedged around $27 last year, $26 this year, and $25 next year. The silver price could hit 26 soon.

At these pM prices Hoc profits nearly 50% higher than a month ago!

Silver is already above the $25 that Pallancata is hedged for 2023 as costs are nearly that, so the board had no option if it was not so near losses. I think the hedge is $26 this year so another few days of rises and we will be losing out. Shame the super higher costs there forced them to do it. Hopefully I will prove right on Tuesday’s purchase and the price will rise today, if slightly limited by the hedge

Gold gnome,, I greatly appreciate your posts from down under on Centamin, inflation and gold, but it is deeply depressing to read you and others lambasting the fourth estate. Contrary to your opinion there have been some excellent and pertinent analysis of Ukraine from the FT to the Telegraph the BBC the Spectator NYT etc, and they have been entirely right about Ukraine, including fascinating well researched long essays about its history. Without them we too might live in a Putin world. Steven Bannon and Dominic Cummings have very sadly won if you no longer believe in the news but conflate their online fake news with the serious press and thus no longer believe it or its importance. So I say thank you to their journalists, mor and more of whom are killed by dictators around the world. They are vital for freedom and for this board, ie to make investment decisions, and their reports over the last week have led me to buy more gold shares so this discussion is pertinant.
This incidentally is your post a week ago about how they were making up
“Another All-Time Media Faceplant !!?
After the Biden administration and the press wrongly predicted a Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 16th, they kept compounding the error in spectacular fashion..and why not...havent they anything better to do?

“It was a joke, you idiots.”

If cluelessness, can be art? or fart??, American journalists unveiled their Sistine Chapel this week, in a remarkable collection of misreports and hack stenography surrounding a predicted invasion of Ukraine.” and yesterday “ Least of all the "news" on the BBC, CBNC, RT, and the
rest”. Shame on you and the attackers of liberal democracy, along with the press that has enabled and supported it from Jonathan Swift to Daniel Defoe, the broadsheet to our ancient magazines and yes the increasingly underfunded BBC that all enable us to see fake news here, it may not be perfect but has enabled me to live 70 years without having to fight, enough to eat, freedom to travel the globe and fulfil my life as I wish, at least in the U.K.

Just to add Agricore SOME THOUGHTS IN CAPS

Couple of things I'd point out (for those of you who appear to have given up reading after page 1 of today's announcement):

1. The 2021 exploration results are exciting. 400-500g/tonne of silver and average 4-6g/tonne gold is a good grade. YES, AND I HAVE SAID THE MUCH NEEDED EXPLORATION IS GOOD IF EXPENSIVE. HAVE GOT AROUND 2 YEARS EXTRA RESERVES IN A YEAR
2. There's a strong variation between mines too. Pallancata's AISC is over 50% above Immaculada. Immaculada's AISC is broadly comparable to Barrick's AISC. IT IS THE OVERALL AISC THAT IS SO HIGH AND NEARLY 50% MORE THAN BARRICK. If for some mad reason silver dropped from here then they'd mothball it NO, IT IS FULLY HEDGED FOR ANOTHER TWO YEARS THO MEANS TOTALLY UNEXPOSED TO ANY SILVER RISE AS WELL AS FALL(like they did with their other mine 3-4 years back the name I don't recall). If silver rises as is widely expected then this will have an outside profit upside for HOC as has been pointed out. AS ABOVE NOT FROM PALLANCATA. ONE THIRD OF OUR TOTAL SILVER IS HEDGED. THEREFORE IF GOLD STAYED FLAT AND SILVER DOUBLED OUR PROFIT WOULD ONLY RISE 25%
3. I don't think people realise the potential for Aclara. HOC still owns a chunk of that and those of us who've not binned it off I think we will see some exciting progress (I've gone the other way and topped up on Aclara) I HAVE BEEN BUYING TOO
4. The PE for 2021 is 10.I think that's historically cheap for HOC. Barrick is a PE of 20 for example :) THE PE FOR 2022 IS LIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER, HENCE THE PRICE
5. The point someone made about spare cash being used by HOC for capital investment in 2022. Err, so what? Do you even understand how business works? DEPENDS IF IT INCREASES PROFIT
6. The 2022 rise in AISC are common to all mines not just HOC.HOC RISE IS MUCH HIGHER THAN MOST MINERS, AND INFLATION WILL MAKE IT HIGHER STILL Barrick don't actually clearly give guidance for 2022. They just make a vague gesture that AISC will drop 2022-2025 (presumably through the use of new technology and approaches). Which if true will be common to all mines for just Barrick!
7. The special mining tax mentioned in the 2021 report seems to put to bed the political part for now; HOC is diversifying meanwhile and my point of "don't kill the golden goose" seems to have prevailed. HOPEFULLY SO THAT WOULD BE WONDERFUL, BUT PERU AND ARGENTINA STILL IFFY AS MANAGEMENT SAY

Costs much higher, to a lesser extent fewer ounces

Did you not read what I wrote and continually do, around £1 this has taken into account (and more) the poor 2022, (it has fallen over three fold!), therefore as a very high cost producer it is far more geared to rising or falling gold. I am obviously hoping gold will finally rise with inflation and faster than Hoc costs. I have said this so many times do I need to do so many more?
The guidance for 2022 is lousy
The share price has fallen because of this
Nothing has changed
We have continued to fall viz a viz the gold price ( ie not risen as others over last few weeks)
So now should be in the price
Falling gold we plummet
Rising gold we should soar

Dark Knight, and 100, first I am neither a troll nor a shorter and very sadly don’t work for a hedge fund, I am retired hence having the time to write here, but sometimes feel like giving up when others just insult rather than making, thought through, counter arguments on which this board should thrive. Moreover why would I have posted buying more yesterday and keep saying this is fair value now if shorting, which I wouldn’t know how to do even if I wished to and which I have said explicitly I don’t. It is not last years results just reported, and which you report, that are the problem but what our board say explicitly about 2022:
Cash is up a lovely $65m in 2021 or approx $180 an ounce of gold, but in 2022 if costs up this much there will be no cash, unless gold price is higher. This inflation is a much small problem for other miners, Barrick for instance are making more than double on each ounce of gold as they have far lower costs plus they are rising much more slowly than us.. So Next year due to our high starting costs and extraordinary inflation, our profit predicted to be lower unless gold is nearly $200 higher. Ie If gold is $2000 should make same profit as now.
It is partly because we have Huge capex $160m, need to spend $130m on Amarillo/posse/snip next year, to replace what is running out.
Pallancata would have been loss making this year without the hedge, and that is before inflation, presumable next year with a hedge at $25 it will be lucky to even break even
Dividend yield 3% would be under 1% if share price was back where it was, another reason why share price lower, especially as not a growth share. The Dividend was 50% higher last year.
So around £1 seems a fair price with gold as it is. If gold rises this should rise quite sharply, if it falls this should fall quite sharply, hence this is very geared gamble on gold which is why I hold and buy more. Now please some intelligent argument about why the above figures are wrong, why our management is wrong predicting the rather than insults, conspiracy theories etc. As said don’t shoot the messenger

I do not want to promote doom, but unlike so many politicians and others now I believe in telling the truth. The market which tells the truth of buyers and sellers is sadly saying the same. Don’t shoot the messenger,Honest messages are the most useful thing you can have as an investor, rather than line ramping companies and posters

If results as expected puts you off maybe you shouldn’t be invested here? I have just said what the board has and explains the price, it is steady as she goes with nothing exciting a not great divi and lower output than historical higher costs, heavya political warnings but quite good exploration and hope for the future. I will hold and happy bought more testerday

Nothing very exciting, results as expected and prediction for this year remains lowish output again and higher costs “ This forecast includes lower grades at Inmaculada due to the inclusion into the mine plan of veins discovered between 2018 and 2020. It also includes a rise in mine development costs at Inmaculada and San Jose to access veins discovered in 2021 and increase reserves at San Jose.” Pallancata would have lost money without the hedge. . But all that is in the price and more imho.

Dark I have no idea, but just as Mr hoc sold £120m worth of shares before the shares halved, I do wonder who has been continuing to sell and why now the price is so low, so just worry that some bigger fish than me might know something bad? Maybe tomorrow we will find out but the company is very poor at communication so we may well not, we shall see. On another note Aclara shares are another merry disaster, having to pay 38.1% tax on the full price of $1.70 yet still can't sell at Barclays and now the price has fallen to to little over a dollar I am paying around 65% tax when I get them! why the endless fall in that too?

an extra $600 straight to bottom line, so assuming costs so profit more than doubles so share price should be a bit above 200
but depends on
a. whether trajectory of gold is still rising sharply in which case could be a bit higher as more drawn in and miners more desirable
b. if we get some better or worse news on production or costs
c. however I still think it is finely balance whether gold will rise or fall, and we are equally geared to that as a now costly producer so I wouldn't dust off the golden oil flops til/if we get there!

Don’t think so, it has been slipping later for the last few years, April or May, will presumable be announced with the results, 16 Mar

Well I had that wrong, Hoc still falling esp against gold which is up while Hoc is down, there must be a reason beyond just sentiment, as said hope not some more nasty politics or exploration or production or costs as usual coming tomorrow?

As said below Hoc is very geared, it’s horrid news should be in the price and with todays rise in gold we should begin to start. Owing unless any more horrid news tomorrow ….

Thanks for pointing this out, it makes for somewhat grim reading sadly emphasising what I have been saying about Falling production. And worse the rising costs, which are more than taking away the gold price rise. However the flipside is if gold continues up Hochschild is very geared to the rise now being a super high cost producer tho of course on the downside very exposed to any fall which could wipe it out far quicker than mining rivals. So this really is a gamble on a PM rise as without it prospects are somewhat dire

Eviking, agree