Member Info for Sotolo

Share price seems to be drifting up very nicely to me, unlike some of my other shares, up 40% since Sept, with the rhodium price last few days more than obviating the other PGM metals slight weakness, and of course against the sharp rises in energy prices pushing costs, plus other inflation. Rh is now nearly 60% of the basket, which is back over $2900 though still a long way to get back to $4000 of a year ago which gave over 50% higher profit on it.

Oh Mr Tibbles, if only I had magic mushrooms on toast while smoking a spliff for breakfast. My point was that it is salutary to work out that the endeavour shares have risen while ours have fallen so their offer would be worth around £1.50 and it would be a relief to see our share price back there however it is done.. Of course I would be far happier with Somnamba’s price of £5

If only Endeavour would offer the same again, their offer would now be worth around £1.50 as the Endeavour share price has risen considerably since the offer as it has gone from strength to strength while our share price has fallen. Or if only anyone would make a similar offer and the board, unsurprisingly keen on keeping their own jobs, would actually recommend what is in the interest of us, the shareholders, for once. Presumably if the Endeavour bid had gone through Cey would have been a drag on the Endeavour rise but we at least would not be talking about having lost money over the last couple of years. I for one would welcome any bid at £1.50, but chance would be a fine thing, especially if it left me with shares in a better growing gold miner. Roll on Barrick but I imagine that only being able to get 50% of the company is putting them off.

The huge question faces us, as discussed with the likes of Prof, Tiger, Uncertain etc over the years, is what happens when the bonds and shares tumble. Will gold shares be hit by falling overall PE’s, will the gold price fall as in March 2020 as investors seek cash to pay for their margins on falling bonds and shares, or will us long-term holders, who have been holding Centamin as Insurance for just this eventuality, finally receive our payback? It looks like we will know the answer this year.

Yes this board is very dead as is the share price, which sadly hasn't stopped responding but continues to react more to company problems than the gold price that continue to take it lower; Most investors seem to have unsurprisingly left Hoc, or lost a lot of money, or both. When everyone has given up on Hoc and is out hopefully the fall will stop, hopefully the company will find some more reasonably priced gold to mine, and not the tiny things they are currently buying into; hopefully they will get a handle on costs despite the heavy exploration expenses to replace seams running out; hopefully the politics will get better rather than worse; hopefully Argentinian and Peruvian governments will become more benign; hopefully gold will rise and this gold miner will too; and hopefully a fourth Pallancata silver hedge won't be necessary as either silver has risen or Pallancata written off... hopefully ...

Mr Tibbles, I didn’t say POG wouldn’t rise in 2022, I just said we need that rise to maintain profits, and it looks less likely as gold fails to be moved by large negative real interest rates and high inflation. I have no idea if gold will fall or rise, but I do know what Mr Horgan has told,us, without a gold rise profits will be lower with higher costs and lower output. It is possible the extra holes as you put it wil not only cost us more but reveal more and cheaper gold, but this certainly isn’t promised. However with the world as it is now even a lower dividend (not the next one as already promised) or paying it out of cash we already hold, makes these a hold as most other shares can and bonds are likely to decline in value and there is a possible upside here or hopefully lower fall that elsewhere. Your wishful thinking, and about life, is charming.

Me too Viable, just amazing that footsie miners like Centamin and Hochschild are on forward PE’s so many times higher than THS with much less growth, or rather the opposite, in prospect. Of course truth will eventually out but what a wait!

Problem is our shares are almost dead; today just two trades so far, one of those tiny, while Centamin, for instance, has had nearly 1000, we are so very unloved except by ourselves, but it should mean if ever buyers or sellers entered we could move fast up or down.

Chicken, in your crystal ball is the spectacular movement you see down or up? Thanks

Dear Mr T, $900 cash costs means much higher aisc so Candid has a point; it may not be quite as bad as he suggests but profits will likely halve unless gold shoots up which is looking increasingly unlikely if it hasn’t yet, despite soaring inflation and ultra low interest rates. The company could pay a special dividend as Candid asks, or a share buyback, but more useful would be to use the cash to keep paying us a dividend as the profits shrink so won’t be there to cover it imho. It will also need cash from this pot, or to borrow which is getting more expensive, to do the much needed new Egyptian exploration with no promise of finding anything.

Thanks Poker, so Vasquez, the PM who did the following, and started. huge tumble in our shares, is gone, "LIMA, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Peru's prime minister, Mirtha Vasquez, sparked anger in the sector and triggered the Hochschild sell-off when she said on Friday that several mines would not be granted further operational extensions due to environmental concerns....Shares of Hochschild Mining (HOCM.L) were down around 8% on Tuesday, after collapsing 27% a day earlier after Peru's government indicated that it would not approve operational extensions for its flagship Inmaculada silver mine. The slide continued despite a crunch meeting late on Monday between the government and the powerful National Society of Mining, Energy and Oil, which both sides said had been "very productive." " So do we say whoopee or does this mean more mayhem?

Peru's prime minister, Mirtha Vasquez, sparked anger in the sector and triggered the Hochschild sell-off when she said on Friday that several mines would not be granted further operational extensions due to environmental concerns.

The closures would hit two Hochschild sites – including its lucrative flagship Inmaculada mine.

worry its because of the speed they are spending it at (not on Anza)
On May 31, 2021 the Company had US$6,958k,
on November 30, 2021, US$5,329k.
Now US$4,964k.
ie if I have it righte $2m in 8 months or $3m a year and on what? fine living? Which means at this rate of burn only 20 months of this cash left, not surprising they did a rights, maybe they need to stop thinking so much of themselves but then human nature when you can?

Tornado hope you are right predicting flat opening this morning, not down, but gold down 1% which is 3% off profit, so I expect us to open down, hope you are right and me wrong?

Fres Very like Hoc, the worry is lower profits this year, unless gold and to a lesser extent silver, turn dramatically up

Thanks Poker, I just say it as it is and must be getting something right, if Yep thinks I am employed by the company to talk it up, and Dark that I talk it down. It is sad that across so many areas nowadays people no longer like debate or different opinions but just want to read that whatever they don’t like isn’t true. I don’t trade Hoc or Cey, except small amounts very occasionally, and none for a long while; I hold them as a play on Gold which in my estimation should rise with falling real interest rates, I have no idea if or when that will be but I prefer to hold gold miners, and there are exceedingly few in footsie 350; I don’t like admire the inept self serving management of any including Hoc and Cey, but I split my money between those two as they are there. When posters say their share price is irrational and should be somewhere completely different I attempt to explain why investors may be eschewing them, as each has fallen three fold, which I never envisaged or obviously would have sold, but both have been economical with the news. In the longer term they seem to have a period making apparent big profits as Hoc and Cey a few years ago, but that is because they underinvest, so then have to spend more increasing costs, reducing profits as now. However if gold doubles it will bring even these mismanaged companies way up, while much of the rest of the market is very overvalued, cash loses near 10% in real terms and the economy could enter a crash

Super the new ventures are tiny, the extra reserves found are great, the problem is the costs getting them out. Yes Dark night brokers indeed are, with no real growth prospects and a waning asset for the current valuation to be justified this would need a profit to my mind of £60m, but I think 2022 will be far less. I would love to know how they intend to reduce the astronomical costs in 2023, with a plan like Cey which currently seems much better, despite its self inflicted wounds.

Sorry formatting has gone.
2015 just silver aisc and profits
2016 no gold koz or aisc
2021 and 2022 no profits yet

I think this might help explain it, I may not have transcribed them all accurately but the gist is right, ounces and aisc in silver equivalent on the left, in gold equivalent on the right. moz is million ounces. Profits in the middle, profits on Hargreaves Lansdown on right. Compared to 2019 profits will obviously be far far worse in 2022 with costs up 40% and ounces down 25%
Silver moz aisc profit m. Gold koz aisc. profit m HL
2015 12.9 256
2016 35.5 11.2 108. 62
2017 38 12.3 64 514 910. 53
2018 39 12.6 38 526 931. 6
2019 38 11.9 76 477 990 41
2020 25 12.8 62 290 1098. 20
2021 31 14.3 362 1230
2022 27.5 17.5 355 1410
They only did silver equivalent ounces back in 2015 when essentially a silver miner. You can see profits fell four fold to 2019 as costs rose and ounces fell. Since then costs which are three times more important to profits, have taken off as they try to replace disappearing ounces, and just how bad 2022 looks explaining the precipitous drop imho. Getting back to 2015 profit looks impossible unless gold rises by 50% plus

Dark night I would say not crazy but logical. We have just had what is in effect confirmation of another Profit warning, with forward guidance halving profit this year if gold and silver stay level, plus another hedge that reduces silver exposure, resulting in analysts’ share price reductions. The guidance says 360k oz at $400 an ounce profit less 50% tax equals around £50m profit less extra capex so share price and valuation seem around right particularly when you add in political risk but if we continue to plummet maybe there is some horrid politics that those in the know are already aware of?

Ps the only silver lining is with Aclara as usual with Hochschild you can make a massive capital loss and no chance of paying cgt. But if that is the best you can say….