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Mr T, together I think we can predict the direction of Cey correctly way more than 50% of the time. Although I know that predicting this, and the reason for it, annoys some people here in my view the healthy debate helps one take a view far better than the analysts who move in herds. Overall Those continuing to predict falls after the wall, compounded by once gold turned, have been correct in the downward trajectory over the last year. As to selling unfortunately I suffer from anchoring so unlike those who sold this week I will hold as I don’t believe it makes money to try to time the market, and eventually Cey should improve, and so should the gold price, and I could be quite wrong and sooner than the another couple of year that I think. Have a lovely weekend, you seem a decent if opinionated (not necessarily bad) man, and of course decency and opinions make this board go round.

I Don’t think you have made a mistake Mando, and sadly think you will appear prescient; I hope of course you are proved wrong , tho unlikely. I wish I was as brave and wise but would mean taking a large loss. Gold has failed to hold 1800 again so tumbling and agree testing $1680 again is on the cards, plus remember we have some horrible figures coming out in the annual financials next quarter. The only thing that keeps me going is falling real interest rates, and that bitcoin which has taken advantage of them to become the new haven, collapses leaving us, but when….

Looks to me as though the share price may also be under pressure as Burning cash a bit too fast, the company had $7m at end of May, now $5.7m so $1.3m gone in 4 ½ months which if continued is a stunning $3.5m a year. What is that spent on, as it will run out in 18months at this rate despite the big fund raising last year.

Rax thanks for that interesting view, predicting the chip shortage leads to a similar vehicle cutback next year as this, and a PGM basket price over the next couple of years of around $2000 for ths which still gives us a healthy if reduced profit. The great thing is this super year has paid for Vulcan which should mean chromium around half our profit and perhaps a forward PE of around 5 which still gives plenty of room for a re rating, all done on the back of my fag packet

Canetoad, always enjoy your interesting posts. Quite agree, who knows where gold will go immediately but, as per my previous post, gold should come good with inflation increasing faster than rates, unless ‘this time it’s different” and bitcoin has replaced it. I don’t think so, so am holding in anticipation but it is a bloody long wait and of course the next financials are a big one for cey-might clobber it or save it

Yes Tornado, a very good read and just why I remain so hugely overweight in miners. The charts and pundits are calling for gold down to $1500 and lower. My view is that large and increasingly negative interest rates have to support gold in the end - reassuring to read an article saying the same, thanx

I plan to buy if they approach 250

Much appreciated Feynzz as ever, were you an accountant or some such?

Most miners do not spew out rns's, one normally waits for the quarterly report and annual financials. I am quite happy sitting on these, which will do what they will as flibberty gibbets move in or mostly out, as this ceases to be a traders/rampers share and becomes an investment one where profits from mining are probably not coming till the 2030's. Then our 25% of them should be good, hopefully they'll begin to come a bit sooner. Tin news is much less important as not a transformative profit driver imho. Having held for 17 years another few doesn't matter too much and hopefully they will begin to pick up in anticipation. imho

Even grumpier with Barclay’s late divi, as said I wanted to put it in under valued Tharisa which is now up nearly 30% since the start of last week, but sadly I hadn’t received the divi at the start of last week, as others had from their brokers. So reinvested in Cey, where fat chance of a week.y 30% rise as not undervalued like Tharisa, in fact still on a forward PE about 10 times higher than likes of Tharisa. What do we think our NPAT&emra share will be, £30m or so for a PE of around 35, or better?

Feynzz what do you reckon, production is good as expected, but cash flow is only up $6m with $3000+ basket price and high chrome, because of Vulcan costs, and says Chrome transport costs etc up so most producers will need current high price to make any money (we now have lower break even with Vulcan). Does all this make it harder to predict NPAT, or do those who have calculated it feel much the same to what we will get in December? Thanks wise men.

Gosh thanks Candid, v much appreciated. Roughly what do you expect profits to be this year? Do you mean the extra Capex this year and next will add about $115 to aisc, or mean we need a gold price $115 higher, over next decade, for same profit (+ more for mining inflation)? As said thanks a lot.
Also Gnome, yes inflation's likely to be higher but I just read interesting article looking at the correlation on charts between gold and inflation, there isn't really one as it depends how much interest rates are raised to knock inflation, if a lot this trounces inflation and gold falls. This time my guess is inflation with rise faster than rates, so more important, but the market is fixated on the wrong metric, interest rates, so an announcement of higher inflation will increase the worry on rates and could hit gold, although this will be the wrong move that will eventually right itself if I make myself remotely clear. Which is why I hold.

Steve, that depends a lot on what cey profitability will be, so if Capex is included in aisc or as is more usual not or partially. From Centamin outlook for the year this August: · "2021 Gold production and cost guidance maintained: 400,000 to 430,000 oz at AISC of US$1,150- 1,250/oz ...Capex guidance of US$225 million and exploration expenditure of US$17 million". Is this Capex on top of the aisc if so it amounts to $242m spread over 415,000 ounces or near an extra $600 an ounce taking costs to $1750-1850 an ounce at which we have maybe just been breaking and are now about to be or already are loss making. This extra Capex also lasts through next year, with same again. If gold falls just a couple of hundred dollars would we be losing a lot? Now I expect/hope I am wrong and hope Capex or a lot of it is included in aisc, but I would really appreciate some help on whether we are heading for decent profit or losses. Of course if v little profit or losses this year and next, all depends how much Capex shrinks once the wall is sorted in 2023. Remember we also have hefty mine cost inflation though our solar plant will help. Can anyone sort through the figures and tell me expected profit this year and next at current gold price and if gold rises or falls 10%? Also how much this extraordinarily large Capex shrinks in 2023. Thanks so much.

Thanks Gnome, I always find Dalio interesting, especially on the history of money and debt, he has been suggesting gold for a while. And thanks ha'penny, what interests me is that a lot of the gold pundits who were calling the gold price to go higher, and were wrong, now see strong similarities between the charts in 2011 as a four year fall began and now, suggesting we are a year in and there will be a similar multi year fall in gold again as quantitive easing is cut back and interest rates rise. However I keep wondering why they don't mention the big difference to last time, do they think it doesn't matter: last time US inflation fell from over 3% to 0% from 2011 to 2015, just as gold fell. This time it seems likely that inflation will rise and faster than interest rates, which should make gold rise, which is why I am holding on to Centamin despite I think the next few figures will be bad?

Feynzz. Isn’t there a lag between mining and selling so THS will we be getting summer metal prices in this quarter? If so should still be pretty stonking final quarter figures which well find out at annual financials in early Dec which should be fab?

where else could or would Brad go, our only prospects are there , we have only ever been there, and our cash is limited

Yes Berenberg had 200p on 6th oct since when price has fallen 20%. Let’s hope their new 200p isn’t followed by the same, read discussion of how useless analysts are.on Cey board

It is not analysts’ education, state school and redbrick/ex poly educated ones are just as bad, it is the nature of the job - read super forecasting, which posits that groups of informed amateurs, who argue their opposing views, are far better than analysts who follow the herd; , why all views are so important on these boards and tolerance of others is not only courteous but helps in seeing where a share will go. With Cey just now it is hard to tell, but if the financial year shows profits much reduced as expected, maybe another lurch down despite what the gold price does, unless investors are prepared to look at the recovery that now begins little more than a year off (if for once all goes according to plan). The other big question is whether profit will cover the divi and if, as is probable,it doesn’t whether and by how much the dividend is cut.

If you look up Tharisa investors’ calendar The q4 production report is indeed tues 12th oct, this should be steady as she goes, another confirmation of the decent figures and not affect the price a lot, however the full year financial report on 2nd dec should be another matter, it should be stonking and although like Vulcan expected should give us quite a jolt up, the dividend and forward guidance then will be interesting

Candid the break even cost might be rather higher than you imagine. From the last report: “2021 gold production and cost guidance maintained: 400,000 to 430,000 oz at AISC of US$1,150- 1,250/oz sold… Unchanged 2021 capex guidance of US$225 million and exploration expenditure of US$17 million”. So if the extraordinary capex, a lot from the wall collapse, is not in aisc, the new total cost per ounce is $1150-1250 + $240m spread over 415k oz which is a stunning extra $578 an ounce taking costs to around $1800 an ounce, so I hope I have this completely wrong as would mean we are making a loss on every ounce now? Anyone?? On another note Tharisa that I couldn’t buy yesterday, as my dividend still hadn’t been paid by Barclays, is now up 20% since yesterday! Barclays has cost me even more than usual this year.