Member Info for Sotolo

The results were exactly as expected, so expected just a slight move to the upside but falling silver obviated that, as did the postponed divi announcement. Now very dependent on PM Pirie so for which outlook still doesn’t look great. Hopefully we’ll hover around this level for a while and a decent dividend will help, tho notice our cash is only up around £20m from memory so 2.5% would use it all. Last year was 4cents but paid later.

The majority owner of this has been selling not buying, if there was a potential buyer he would have held on and sold for more to them surely

Good to see the shares up a bit as hoped for in my first post today, but shrugging off the delayed dividend announcement as a technicality. The good thing is we may get a further rise in a couple of weeks if the dividend is good. Looking forward to the q and a on the divi

Weird no interim dividend. Ah should have read to the bottom. Maybe price down as yet again something weird and unexpected? Interesting to see what Bustamente says. Maybe all ok as interim being announced within a fortnight but how amazing to not get it together to sort this two weeks sooner
Dividends

“Following a detailed review, the Company has identified an issue concerning the Company's compliance with the Companies Act 2006 in relation to the payment of certain historic dividends (the "Relevant Historic Dividends"). In particular, the Company did not have sufficient distributable reserves at the appropriate point.
Notwithstanding the above, the Board notes the Company's robust net cash position.
The Company has identified certain steps that are anticipated will create sufficient distributable reserves in the Company and is working with its advisers towards that objective. We will update shareholders on this in due course. Subject to creating sufficient distributable reserves, the directors anticipate announcing an interim dividend by the end of the month.”



Furthermore, the Company expects it will require a resolution to be passed at a General Meeting to be held in due course to relieve the shareholders of any obligation to repay the Relevant Historic Dividends and to release the Directors from any related liability.

Well as expected
The good news is we are up on all metrics on H1 2018 and 2019 (as said 2020 was a COVID washout so the increases since last year fairly meaningless). This of course includes up on costs - Pallancata now over 17c an ounce as an old expensive mine. But Inmaculada doing well and especially finding another 400k0z of gold (a years supply) at good grades
Overall earning per share 7c for first half compared to 3c in 2018 and 2019 tho second half will be lower as much higher costs with deferred expenditure
Hopefully shares up a little on this even if as expected

Yes tomorrow quite important. Key for me will be to see how results compare to last two non COVID first halves, see below, earnings per share for the first 6 months were 3cents or 2.3pence both years, which gives quite a high pe; and to see how much new resources they have found, really wants to be a million gold ounces or equivalent a year to extend mine life.

“2019 all-in sustaining costs on track to meet $960-$1,000 per gold equivalent ounce guidance ($11.8-12.3 per silver equivalent ounce)

$000 unless stated

Six months to 30 June 2019 followed by
Six months to 30 June 2018

Attributable silver production (koz)
8,687
9,674

Attributable gold production (koz)
138
138

Revenue
354,450
372,328

Adjusted EBITDA
153,734
161,906

Profit from continuing operations (pre-exceptional)
25,085
22,242

Profit from continuing operations (post-exceptional)
16,661
10,718

Basic earnings per share (pre-exceptional) $
0.04
0.05

Basic earnings per share (post-exceptional) $
0.03
0.03

toptiger, I said is EVEN IF rhodium went to zero Tharisa would still be decent value. I have no idea where rh will go, others on this board have said how hard is to know (certainly not $1 or even 1000 times that). I just try to think of reasons why others aren’t attracted by the very low price of THS so the price remains so very low. As someone pointed out here, even analysts have little idea where rh or ths will go. However as the book Superforecasting researched, the combined views of interested amateurs like us will beat analysts which is why our different thoughts and predictions of where rh and ths will go are so valuable. So thanks toptiger and all for your varying and mostly civil views

Thanks Auson

That would explain why my figures saying the pound had risen

But what about the bouncing dead cat, it looked golden?

I am just out on Hampstead heath in the drizzle and I saw a cat bouncing, it looks pretty dead to me? Even stranger the pound here has risen by over 6% against the euro and dollar in the last year and by over 10% against the yen? It is up getting on for 15% from its dollar low and more against the yen, so where are you reading the trend is down? Not here anyway

dead cat bounce?

I do think Ragnar has a very good point that a bigger dividend would help ie for THS to focus a bit more on shareholder returns, rather than putting 83% of profit back in the ground that may or may not give future returns depending on the metal prices. So let us hope the special dividend they have mentioned is whopping and that we get a bigger hunk of this year's windfall profit. Ragnar's point about PE is of course very valid too, as the relatively low share prices of PGM miners now builds in that the metals may be at a peak and all usually trade at relatively low PE's at the top of the cycle. Ragnar big one, where do you see THS price at Xmas?

Equilibrium depends in this order on
a. Price of gold and silver - silver already down 20% which is more than halving of silver profits (apart form a third of silver hedged). If these are expected to fall further the price is hammered
b. Finding some more metal to mine as some mines short life
reducing costs again particularly as these have risen as ounces fall
c. The government imposing higher taxes on big profits (down the list as only affected if make these profits)
d. Some good news on rare earths and other new mines
v much looking forward to next week's interims as we had better PM prices in first half, but of course outlook then will be key and I would wait to put more in till after that and until gold and silver find a bottom which could be quite a while. Thioo. out ts knife has been falling a long while and the owner sold a chunk 9 month ago, signalling to us chumps to get

correct methinks apart from perhaps the conclusion. Gold price increases with inflation in long run so actually stay stable in real terms. If you hold the metal in theory you stay in the same place and do slightly worse than inflation linked bonds. If in miners their costs rise along with gold. However psychologically they become more attractive than some other shares, and hopefully gold rises faster than costs. Centamin has certainly been hit in the last year far more by rising costs than falling output or gold price imho. So the question becomes will the solar plant insulate us to some extent from oil inflation, will wages machinery etc rise less fast than inflation and gold. Or will gold take off? Looking back over 50 years can be a bit random but lets hope so

I’m sure Horgan is already doing his very best to hit his 2023 target with lower costs and higher output but this is dependent on everything going to plan that doesn’t always happen in mining let alone Centamin, rather than my asking him. Cowichan is right of course that a huge discovery would of course help the prince, as long as this ultimately turned to profit. My point was simply that it is not a lack of promotion and interest that is holding Centamin shares down but rather the opposite, they are higher than profit would warrant on high expectation Horgan will fulfil the plan, hence a lot on trust. I am holding because I see 2023 as a good recovery but I consider it brave if not foolhardy of me, especially as gold likely to go lower before rises again, hopefully by 2023

Cowichan I don't think it as much investors taking notice of Centamin that is needed - quite a lot do for better or worse - but the company needs to start making some decent money again; at this gold price I reckon that our share of the profit after profit share and royalty will be about £80 an ounce or around £30million which would really deserve a valuation less than half what it is now, plus the company is paying out over 3 times that profit in dividends if I am right, and if it keeps its divi promise, so we badly need that dramatic improvement in costs and ounces promised for 2023....or with gold at these prices and lower the dividend will have to be greatly reduced along with the share price. Now if we could get costs including Capex back to 950 and ounces back up to 540k with gold at these prices we would be making £270 an ounce on 35% more ounces, so more than 4 times more profit. So a lot of the current price is still on trust it seems to me

Super I think the failure of gold, while other assets from houses to shares and lumbar soar, is both worrying and disappointing. It would seem there are so many more profitable places to put money that even negative real rates can’t help gold, you have been optimistic through gold’s fall this last year but sadly, although one day you will be right, I don’t think yet, as they say the trend is your friend or in this case enemy. Particularly hard for Cey, which now being such a high cost producer (I reckon around $1450 an ounce inc the extra capex) is geared about 5 to 1 to gold price so another 10% off gold would knock profits and thus value by 50%. I do hope you are right soon but as Kynes said "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.". Luckily Cey has $300m so can last loss making a while if it comes to that

Thanks Guidfar, I thought Hoc had rights to Snip not Skeena, and that it is Skeena’s main mine Eskay Creek, that has been the main driver of Skeena share price, I think if Hoc only has rights to Snip, which is only 200k oz indicated, 400k inferred, it is a very small mine of which we get a bit over half at quite a cost? Please tell me I am wrong! I am looking forward to this weeks figures that look back to see how well we can do with decent gold and silver prices above now.

I think Snip is an expensive gold mine that needs relatively high gold prices and is also small - only produced 50k ounces a year at its peak in the 90’s. So is not a game changer for Hoc that is hit by Peruvian politics, shortish mine lives and so increasingly expensive to mine. So much so that they had to hedge a chunk of Pallancata silver around $27 an ounce, which given silver now $24 turns out to be very handy. Wish they’d hedged more. The other thing politically is that the government is going to increase tax on big profits - this may apply to copper miners but no danger currently of big profits for Hochschild so more at risk financially from high costs and falling output and sales price, than politically imho

Why pay for it now when they’ll own 75% anyway?

Same here, except a Tiger post. I reckon Cey PE is about 10 times THS so Cey investors must expect the share to rise 10 fold or Ths to fall 10 fold or a combination therorf. I see Cey PE falling 4 or 5 times IF all goes as planned and IF current gold price maintained, while I see THS PE possibly doubling IF PGM’s fall another third, and chrome takes a tumble, but even then THS would be cheaper and there are a lot of IF’s so ultimately an argument could be made that both are correctly priced for the future but certain,y not for now, which is all we know.