Member Info for Sotolo

I finally find my Barclay dividend this am, extremely annoying as I planned to buy more Tharisa with it (this years PE looks like being a tenth of Cey) but the price rose 10% yesterday, usual sods’ (or Barclay’s) law. As usual they take the dividend in dollars then spend days switching them to pounds often saying they have to wait till they actually have the money when the Cey company secretary says they have. Like Mr Tibbs I have complained and got a measly £100 or so apology back when as this time it has cost me four figures. In answer to your other question I started buying this time at around 50p at the start of 2016 (I owned previously but sold out as gold kept falling around 2013) and steadily built tho was lucky enough to sell 10% near the start of the way down at 210, unlucky enough to keep the other 90% tho sold a few for Hoc that hasn’t been much better. I plan to hold through the vicissitudes of the gold price to see whether the promised recovery in output and aisc transpire in 2023/24. However given I don’t think worth using the divi to buy more I shouldn’t be holding but I have FOMO, and who knows, though unlikely gold could rise too.

actually any other broker is better than Barclays but when they decided they couldn't have company accounts or trade international shares they moved those accounts to share centre that was taken over by ii, interactive investors, which is the best I have had. My isa and sipped remain at Barclays who regularly send me a bottle of whisky or champagne to apologise for the service, but I explain I would prefer decent service as in paying dividends out like every other broker does.

I am afraid it has been ever thus with Barclays Smart Investor, I used to complain every divi as often it would cost me a lot as the share would have risen before I got the divi to buy more, however in this climate doesn’t matter as Cey will probably be cheaper soon so have stopped complaining. They usually say that somewhat absurdly they take the dividend in dollars, then transfer it to sterling which somehow takes them a week, despite the dividend being offered in sterling by Cey if you choose. Of course this year getting the dividend initially in dollars and changing at Friday or today’s rate means you get more as sterling has fallen. Overall I have found ii so much better than Barclays which is no longer interested din the investor but selling product imho

Spot, that is also what I was trying to say, when all the pundits call gold up seems most are in and it falls and hopefully vice versa, yes they are the same pundits who were all calling for $2000 plus, hopefully they are as wrong this time.

Gnome, have you noticed that even the optimistic pundits are turning south - Gary Wagner’s, usually on the mark, gold report depressingly says this weekend “ Based upon our analysis we see a high probability that we have entered a multiyear price decline in gold. This is based upon the study from 2009 to the former record top that occurred in the middle of 2011, the multiyear decline which took gold from $2019 down to $1040 at the end of 2015.”. Todd ‘bubba’, Sunshine etc similar. The only hope is that with such extreme negativity, the most I have seen in years, is everyone already out and are we due an uptick or will gold tumble as they all predict and will Cey be losing money next year? Please don’t shoot me, I am only reporting what most pundits (apart from the ever optimistic AM & a few) are saying, that both charts and fundamentals are broke and this is very reminiscent of the fall after the last quantative easing reductions? All Inhold on to is that inflation is real, so real interest rates will fall, but at the moment commodity prices that soared are tumbling back so maybe the Fed and market are right, it is only temporary, so the coming rises in interest rates won’t just be nominal but real? Thoughts oh wise ones….

of course we don’t know where rh will go, just my expectation, your view is just as likely as mine, and great there are different views that make a market and enable one to beat it…or do worse.. Since Aug rh on JM fell from 19000 to 11250 rose back to 14500 which I posted that I thought was probably a dead cat bounce of about a third, and got back up to 14500 before turning south again as expected. . So I still expect rh to plumb the recent low again and either make a double bottom or go on down. Of course I don’t know what it will do just my expectation, esp given the fundamentals of lower vehicle production and higher prices that suits manufacturers, 20% increase in recovery from recycling, and rapidly increasing share of electric in Europe USA and China, that account for the vast majority of the market, so the big question is will this all be made up by a huge surge in I E demand from all over the third world, especially Africa and India, plus more stringent anti pollution regulations. Given the falling share price lower PGMs are expected by the majority of THS buyers and sellers, but I sincerely hope this interpretation is wrong and rh soars. And of course that chromium stays strong

Yes indeed, hugely appreciated and some of the very best investor relations. In answer to your recent question of which way the rollercoaster of PGM prices would go seems we have confirmation that we have seen a bounce which is over and it is down, for rh first back to $10ish but will that be a double bottom or if as more likely further down, with the headwinds of the moment, how far? I think that I will be happier not following the price for a while...

Mr Bond, there were quite a few predictions that gold would fall, including from some members of this board and there still are. Many pundits, like Andrew Maguire talk gold up, but the truth is it is in a bear market and a tumbling stock market and recession may not immediately help. My view is that although it has lower to go if inflation takes hold, falling real rates will lift gold, but maybe the recession will turn out to be big enough to hit gold, who knows but for now if the trend is your friend it is on down as for the last year sadly. However hopefully cey will up ounces and lower costs lifting it from current low profits despite the gold fall. Just imho

This is not the lowest price since April 2016, it was just over 90p in March last year which I expect it may revisit; the news has been very clear from Hochschild over quite a while on production falling, costs up and mine life not all that long; add in silver down from near $30 and more important the probability PM's will take a further tumble when the markets fall because of the Chinese debacle, as they fell in Feb 20, knocking out profits, and explains the price. imho

Yes safe haven stocks should hold up better when the market tumbled as their income is fairly constant. They are Utilities, Consumer staples and Healthcare always and fairly constantly in demand. Hochschild is the exact opposite of a non cyclical safe haven, its profits gyrating wildly. 330p aug 2017, over 70% fall to 92p in March 2020, as it tumbled with the market. Looks like we could be heading there again. The only safe haven bit of Hoc is their wisdom in hedging a third of their silver output for a utility like income, but this is only a 6th of total profits and only lasts through next year. Of course being the opposite of a safe haven stock it could also soar if gold does, but gold tends to tumble if the market collapses as investors seek liquidity. The only hope is that the market realises that REAL interest rates are still falling even while NOMINAL rates rise.

Yes, then less costs, payments to refiners, other shareholders, tax but at totally rough ballpark guesstimate still £70+ profit just from PGMs so IF price holds here whoopee and with chrome maybe a PE of just 3.
And Troajan yes it wasn’t Tharisa tha got Tiger banned, but Tiger thankfully does say just what he thinks, back in June he though EUA would fall 6 fold while THS would rise, while THS has fallen a third and EUA has risen. However it doesn’t matter being right, we all get it wrong sometimes, but I find it so useful to know weaknesses and threats as well as strengths and opportunities, while these boards hate anyone posting any rationale why shares might fall, but at least more tolerant here than most, thanks all and let’s hope PGM’s don’t turn back south.

Trojan, sadly Tiger was banned from LSE so is posting on the ADVFN board which is sadly, as usual, less civilised that the LSE rival, but improved by his frequent postings Canrtoad quite agree, and Metalhead too, we have no idea if this is a bounce in a fall or rh has turned, tho some on ADVFN will get frightfully cross if you say that there, as just want puff, this board is so great for its civilised discussion and I am looking forward to our next results that should be stonking as what a year plus we get the rh price a couple of months back. FYI this from Investing.com tho of course should take with as large a pinch of salt as any pundit. ” Bull markets rarely move in straight lines, but the platinum group metals have suffered from a fundamental issue as the semiconductor shortage has caused the demand to evaporate. … Eventually, car demand will come storming back with a vengeance. Pent-up demand for new and used cars will create a frenzy of buying when prices come down as the chip shortage ends and new vehicles come rolling off assembly lines. The greener path in energy policy in the US and worldwide should once again cause the demand for platinum group metals to rise. ….Platinum and palladium became falling knives in late September 2020. Picking bottoms is dangerous as markets often fall far lower than logic, reason, and rational analysis dictates. However, the green path for energy production and consumption and an overall inflationary trend in markets across all asset classes make the odds of finding significant bottoms high. As of Sept. 22, despite the bounces from the lows, the price action remains ugly. ”

Patryk the difference is last time gold was trading at $1300 Cey was making big profits on it, now if it traded at $1300 they would be making big losses. As such a high cost producer our profits and share price are currently very geared to the price of gold.

V sadly, though not entirely unexpectedly, with Rh now down to $11500 the basket is now down to $2250 and tumbling at high speed. PGM profits are now down 3 fold since spring, so we are fortunate that the shares haven't yet halved. I think we are still probably making £50m + on PPM's profit plus chrome for a PE of maybe 4, so share price still predicting lower metals. However interestingly our share price was 125p in 2017 and 2018 wit rh averaging $1000 in 2017 and $2000 in 2018 which is why I remain sanguine. Of course the upcoming results will be stonking even f next year could be stinking. The Rh used to be under $1000 from 2015 to mid 2017, got to $10000 in early 2020 that was too much for it, tumbled back under $5000 and then began its brief mad ascent to the stratosphere of $30k, the highest average year before now was $8000. So as said I am no Jeremiah I just post the figures and ask where anyone thinks the rout may stop and whether it will be a pause or a bottom. Certainly the car industry news is bad.

CaneToad, I think that the market has not been valuing PGM miners highly because it has considered rhodium hugely overpriced as I have been ploughing on for 6 months, and has worried about SA politics. . However the market heaving anticipated a fall the share price has held up surprisingly well and THS is still very cheap with profits probably in order of £100m at the current price putting us on a still amazing PE predicting further falls. Visitor I didn’t say rh would fall to $2000, I asked where it would fall long ago, $15k, 10k,5k, 2k? I haven’t a clue which, but it is salutary to think rh was half the price of gold just 5 years ago. I don’t have daily panic or hyperbole, just a view that rh was due a big fall which so far has proved correct. The whole point of this board is to contain optimists who believe that once they have bought a share it must rise, and realists who look why it should fall, which annoys the optimists on every board. I am down 25% on THS but still believe it great value for reasons I have stated even if the knee jerk reaction is to knock it down with rh prices even if undervalued. I am not panicking but quite the opposite staying here stalwartly.

Amazed ths isn’t down further today with new mining law in S Africa that has seen tumbles in mining shares from Anglo to Glencore that aren’t pure SA, AND rhodium in free fall now $14600. I suppose our profits were so hefty we can afford to pay out 1% of revenue and source most of what we need from black SA companies and maybe all this is fairer if costly to us

What a massive vote of confidence, Ross buys 15000 shares costing him all of nearly £14000

Yes Webb, as said a couple of days ago, valuing gold in the ground this price seems in the right ball park, worth double gold implied so far, so expecting more will be found and deals/drilling elsewhere. So the traders just take it down below this selling, and up above buying, but still some further major news good or bad, and either equally likely in mining I guess, to move the share price to another fair value imho

Sorry what a difference a night makes, now $14000 and basket $2500, PGM profits now more than halved since spring, probably nearly £100,000 a year but falling now nearly 10% a day!

What a lovely lot you are. Rh now 15000 down another 10% since Fri morn but as we all say this could be fair value on Chromium alone so PGM’s cream