Member Info for Sotolo

Also from the FT today “
Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour.
https://www.ft.com/content/8af691ab-9141-4f26-a759-cf03fa77855d

Gold has fallen 15 per cent from a $2,000 per ounce high when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. We believe rising production costs and the growing appeal of yield-bearing securities will reduce the price further.”
Is this bounce over, is it time to take what we can as I asked before it began?

Modestus , did you read the article, it was from yesterday and he was only bullish in the extremely short term, saying in it “ Therefore, while sentiment moves markets and the current environment is bullish for the GDXJ ETF, the medium-term consequences should be dire. …a reversal of fortunes should occur rather sooner than later (probably not later than a week from today).” Well it wasn’t a week, he put out an alert to go short today, according to him gold Armageddon is coming, revisiting $1200 and below which would make Hoc worthless so let us all pray he is wrong for once.

Modstus just quoting the usually spot on Przem Radonski of Sunshine who seems far more right in his gold calls, got the last fall and bounce quite right and this afternoon time to sell them. Of course I hope he is wrong. The most useful boards appreciate views both on why a share should fall and help in getting out, rather than allowing just rampers. We all know the reason for buying Hoc - the world going to hell in a handcart - we also know why Hoc may have trouble fully benefitting from any unlikely rising prices as ounces fall costs rise and permits seem to get ever harder imho. Anyway I sincerely hope, nay pray, that you are younger and wiser, and that Hoc soars rather than breaking my heart as I hang on to see Pallancata go, as Arcata did and next San Jose plus of course collapsing share of Aclara

I am not sure if or when we will have a chance to get out of this at 80p again, but fool that I am I am still singing, born to suffer as the bounce is probably over and back to if we can survive

On a note more to do with gold Mr Prezm Radomski of Sunshine, who has been calling it just right, says this bounce is over and time to sell gold miners. Of course he has to be wrong sometime but he has been horribly accurate for a while

Yes unlike Newmont which must be looking for money saving

Yes JG68. I have been posting that gold would bound off 1680 (only saying what many have) bounce to near 1800 and then fall far further. So the question becomes how much of a bounce Hoc will now have before it continues falling, ie when to escape as if gold does continue falling high cost indebted Hoc will be problematic. I just hope the board stops paying dividends to conserve some cash, but they don’t seem the brightest.

Mike, you seem right on every score
Chromium continues to fall and likely will a lot further - look how the Chinese slowdown has affected other metals including steel and look at FT today, the biggest asset on the world is looking very rickety - Chinese property
Rh seems to have had its bear bounce. As you said last week the PGM basket increase this week is based on recent information but the longer term trend is still uncertain.
Finally you concluded that THS is a real bargain at under 2.5 P/E for this full year and with the 200 day moving average price firmly above 100p but not to be foolhardy and invest more than 10% which many of us have. Is it time to use the bounce above £1 to reduce our holdings. On the plus side for ths it has a strong balance sheet to weather the coming storm, on the minus speeding electrification in the biggest car markets, but the thing to remember is THS profits are increasingly, and now mainly chromium, and that will recover, and ths should still be here but could be a dicey few years. However I can’t think where I would prefer my money. So I have near 25% here, I joust sold my SLp to put here, but as Prof, johnpwh point out should we?

See FT piece on gold miners today, Newmont just reported near 20% inflation in costs, near halving of profits, however their aisc is still$300 below ours, the FT sees gold falling considerably further as rates continue to rise, hitting miners hard. I think Halfpenny is probably right and first there should be an immediate bounce, then I expect the FT is right about a sustained further fall which should bankrupt some high cost weak balance sheet miners, but Cey should ride through to new gold highs as long as it keeps the balance sheet strong now, which means not paying a dividend that is more than earnings, Imho

Tornado sadly Amarillo is not big shakes so not transformational, need a 5 or better10m oz mine for that, but to get back where we were with Pallancat closing we need an extra 200,000 ounces a year and Amarillo Snip etc won't provide that imho

No freedom, Hoc is normal valued about 1.7 times Centamin but is now lower. However there is reason for this.
Centamin output is rising, Hoc is falling with Pallancata about to be closed
Centamin mines gold and silver, part of your Hoc figure is silver equivalent but silver is falling much faster than gold
Centamin has long lit mines but Hoc doesn't
Centamin has a hundreds of millions of dollars of cash on the balance sheet Hoc is minus over $100m
Centamin is bringing down costs Hoc's are rising
Centamin is in a currently stable country where taxes on it are not rising Hoc isn't
Centamin has problems with permits Hoc doesn't
Centamin has some great opportunities for growth, Hoc is shrinking as is struggling to buy other's cast offs to make up its shortfall etc etc
Hence why Hoc share price is unusually below that of Centamin in my very humble opinion, you did ask

Bhargav. The challenge is miners costs always seem to follow or outstrip metals rises, one of the reasons the metals rise is that they become more expensive to find and extract, hence gold up 50% over decade but miners down. It is getting more and more expensive to extract. So although miners are a geared play in the short term overall it is the metals that preserve your money. Explorers fare worse in high interest environment as techs and other jam tomorrow stocks imho

Razor should be up a bit more before downward trend resumes. Question is whether to take advantage and get out or hang on to the gold recovery after interest rates top maybe next year, which I probably will imho

Yes indeed, and I have been saying for months that Pallancata will close. However although admin costs will need to be spread across a 15 or 20% fewer ounces overall the ASIC should I think be reduced a bit by losing such a very expensive mine. However as I have been banging on for years much to everyone’s annoyance, Hoc’s mines are tired, unlike Centamin for instance that has years of metal

Yes looking good tho Chromium down a little further but market see THS as mainly PGM even if a bit out of date. Anyway lovely to see rh rising but as asked earlier is it a bounce or for real

I also topped up middle of yesterday , finally reinvesting the dividend, as gold touched 1680, as the likes of the pundits , those who seem to get it right rather than sell the stuff, who have been this is a very strong resistance from the flash crash low, so we would get to it and the to and expect a bounce to around $1800. Therefore I am not selling yet unlike you Wild Tiger and will see what happens as/if we near $1800

Yes Prof, is it for real or a bounce? Hoping the former I topped up yesterday , and also some cey as gold touched $1680 so is due a bounce to near $1800 but again will it be just that … probably

Wise words Steve… or stay the same, and of course you are right who has a clue….

Slater, what I failed to realise is the correlation is not with inflation but with 10 year inflationary expectation ie 10 yr inflation linked bonds. On that basis the rate has turned positive and is climbing - hence imho gold’s continuing fall which is likely to continue

Steve I think quite a lot of people have had a clue where gold would go over the last year, down, and think further down. The trend is your friend or for us enemy.