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The rigging they were folded for is very short term spoofing. Long term charts show a pretty close inverse relationship between gold and real interest rates. Gold has mimicked inflation very long term Dark Sky, you are right, however is has sensibly anticipated this inflation seeing the printing and is up around 70% over 6 years (was double before the falls) so can still be some more inflation and gold price falls

My view of the pundits is those like Gary Wagner and Prezm Radonski, who are not trying to sell you gold, tend to be pretty good, both have been calling it down, have been pretty spot on and say further to go, because of rising real rates reducing demand for gold as ever, not conspiracy theories. On the other hand the salesmen like AM consistentLy try to come up with conspiracy theories to say why gold has been held down but is just about to sore so buy, buy, buy, sadly they have been mostly wrong, surprise surprise, especially past couple of years as gold responds to economics rather that their salesmen theories. Silver is responding not only to high interest rates but the coming recession

Yes it was absolutely necessary if Pallancata wasn’t to go bust as it was on a knif edge otherwise, but closure looks pretty definite next year which will reduce output 20%. Sadly the market has reacted as have I as not very much to like about this company in which I remain heavily invested. The on,y god thing one can say is teh shares are cheap…for a reason… and one has to hope it can keep borrowing as it needs to develop the mines it has bought

Yes no surprises, the metric that I always worry about most aisc is now likely to be at high end of 1275-1425 which at these gold prices might give near £50m profit afte the Emra share, so considerably lower than historical and even at this fallen share price a higher PE than historical, in expectation of better times. All depends on those costs going down, and faster than gold does , I wonder if there will be much market reaction as all this is known?

Gone from positive net cash of $86m to net debt of over $100m with the new investments which is not ideal now. No mention of Aclara. And Pallancata being reviewed with low silver price which is luckily hedged this and next year but means like Arcata before, it will have to be closed when the hedge ends. Unless silver makes a dramatic and unlikely recovery
On the good side output and more important costs are as expected.

Aclara down to £30m market cap around 4 fold since float and Hoc still holds a chunk, I wonder if they will have anything to say about that disaster

Old Finger. I hope so too but Hoc is not renowned for happy surprises

Thanks deep joy for this salutary read. Where does that leave investing in Cey do you think?. Ruffer says stock markets have a lot further to fall and also that they have been selling their gold miners and buying gold, presumably because there is a doubwhammy coming to the miners, of rising costs reducing profits, and second with a falling market these profits left are valued less. So as asked your thoughts on cey?

What a lovely Sunday morning lesson. However many economists would say all of these have short term effects an in the end with shares profits will out as with Cey fall. Gold is another matter and in the longer term dependent on how many think it will rise or fall, which depends more on the opportunity cost of holding combined with worry and fashion, and like now how much it has already risen above trend in expectation of inflations, but the pundits don’t seem big enough to affect the latter, nor the conspirators the former - also I suppose it is like fashion columnists who predict longer hems every year, they can’t always be right! But for us here the short term is unpredictable noise. Have a lovely day (or for you night)

Gnome there was a good discussion about spoofing on Kitco, that I have also seen back in the 80’s with cable as the pound was moved a couple of cents in minutes. The point is it has a big intraday bearing ie on very short term movements but is quickly left behind as settles back where it was, so not the real movements that affect us, says Kitco and what I saw, ie rising real rates and falling dollar that still presage gold down despite snake oil salesmen’s positive talk. One day there will be a bottom and gold will turn and make new highs but which miners will still be here, Centamin if it reduces costs so the losses are less and conserves cash cutting divis, but the market is saying perhaps not the likes of Hoc which have costs as nearly as high as Cey but no way to bring them down instead rising, of course both of these two also have major political/economic risk in Egypt and Peru as higher rates and dollar plus massive food and oil inflation hit those two poor and indebted countries. All imho but it is not spoofing that is our problem nor the myriad conspiracy theories here but real lives and real economic problems that have been building now sing 2007 coming home to roost big time. We thought that would help gold but didn’t see the massive interest rate and thus dollar rise ….

I make the current basket $2725, I sold today as the share price has held up so well compared to THS over the last 3 months, but PGM's are likely to fall even further as recession bites?

Agricore the yield is in your rear view mirror, the divi will be quite a. bit lower next year (and this I expect)

Old finger why a bounce on results, presumably costs way up and receipts down with falling price and secular mines running lower?

Mr T, I think the experts have had it pretty right from Gary Wagner to Sumshine’s Prem Radonski, calling it to fall pretty accurately and both saying after a bounce further down which will probably be right too, however the salesman who have an interest in getting you to buy the stuff propose dozens of conspiracy theories as to why it should be higher but is being held back, so buy from them now giving them commission, and soon they will be proved right and you will make riches galore, just like most salesmen talking their own book they are rarely right in this a bear market. Also Tiger there are plenty her who have been calling it right, Including your namesake, Tiger by the Tail till banned, who sold at £2 and is now saying be especially careful also, as there may be an Egyptian default and is staying mainly inCash, wish I was as wise! Unfortunately as the experts point out real interest rates have been rising and are no over half a percent,and gold sadly moves inversely to them whatever the conspiracy theorists latest reason to buy imho

Exactly, helps explain the share price fall

Thanks Visitor, very heartening to see what looks likely to happen if current PGM and chrome prices maintained - ie share v undervalued in expectation of heavy recession and lower metals so hopefully already baked in.

My considered view for the dollar gold price, having read and ingested all the many pundits, economists, and commentators plus the wiser views on this board, is that the probability for the metal next week is that it might rise, fall or stay much the same; sticking my neck out I would predict this scenario continues for the next few months and perhaps the next few years.. Imho

Sorry chrome actually a bit higher than last quarter but Lower than two quarters before that, Jan and Oct? However nice to see cash getting back where it was last Oct, so basically no more cash than 9 months ago in a time of super high prices but then lots of investment!

Mike you were looking for PGM production to be about 44.5k ozs and chrome 430k tonnes. They have turned out 42k and 390k, the lowest in a year especially for chrome despite Vulcan? In a quarter of still strong prices cash is up from $26m to $48m, ie $22m, compared to last quarter when hardly rose, and back where it was last Oct the rise presumably dented more by inflationary costs than oz. What do you think?

Mike, love your post particularly the first sentence!