Member Info for Sotolo

Yes Tornado but in Jan 2016 the pound was worth 20% more, making dollar gold worth 20% more to UK shareholders, aisc costs have risen and is 50% more and we have 50% to take off now for profit share so on that basis share price should be quite a bit lower, as all that considerably more than obviates the gold dollar price rise since Jan 2016, but luckily for us the share price is giving us the benefit of the doubt and has priced in better times coming

Thanks Visitor, but why then is headline eps down almost a third, and ebitda quite a bit too? Or is that because rising chrome and falling PGM’s hadn’t quite worked their way into these backward looking figures?

Sorry top my stupid maths! However “ The headline earnings figure can be further used to arrive at alternative metrics like headline earnings per share and improve the information content of the P/E ratio. ” using more useful hence PE would be 6

Quite so oufc, as said I too stay in as they invest in sensible and enhancing projects and will grow, with experienced and visionary management with skin in the game; we can’t do anything about the vagaries of world economy, hence auto demand hence PGM price, also the PGM production rise is pretty impressive and chrome exciting. Do yo think at these prices chrome is now a third of the profit?

Don’t Eps of 25p gives PE of 6 not 3 at share price of 150, also if based on fairer headline earning per share, which halves them, would be 12? Nice to see the payout 19% when has often been 17% and only 15% aimed for, just a shame profits are so down, presumably if PGM’s stay here second half will be worse as more inflation and won’t benefit from the better PGM priced first quarter. However I expect PGM’s will continue to fall a bit further in expectation of recessions worldwide so lower auto demand, however looking longer term I love THS and stay in it as they reinvest in sensible projects, also car demand through Asia and Africa should grow especially if/when recession ends and there will be an awful lot of vehicles round the world to replace with few newer ones recently sold so many getting long in the tooth.

Thanks for posting Ilja. So if I read it all right, the interim dividend is down 25% from 4c to 3c as Ebitda falls 10% with Headline earning per share down 29% despite a 20% rise in PGM mined - mostly presumable from heavily increased costs but also reduced PGM price. It is going to be a tough year for miners unless prices rise substantially due to increased costs. I wonder how the market will react to such a hefty dividend drop……or I worry

Well Dark it isn’t doing gold any good, as predicted a couple of weeks ago it was about to have a dead cat bounce, well that has happened but also as predicted then the bounce likely to be shorlived, I wonder if it is over yet, scary interview on Kitco yesterday about how much small/mid gold miners like us share price will fall as profits are squeezed away by rapidly rising costs, esp from fuel as well as labour, unless gold rises a lot, and so far with rising rates it is sadly falling to where many will be losing money. Hoc was already an extremely high cost producer, and must be closing the gap with a falling gold price as costs soar further. So let’s just hope the market is wrong and gold at some point turns, and turns big!

We already had the headline figures last week if not the detail, hence the rise in proce

We’ll done, where did you find better prospects?

I can Mike, which is more important to you, the headline figure? And which eps is used for calculating PE. What would you expect share price to be by year end if metal prices costs and share price stay as now?

Prof sadly so and Hoc, and gold looks like it’s having a dead cat bounce before descends further, but I hang on waiting for it to turn and being near certain that when I sell out it will mark the bottom. Been somewhat saved by THS now my biggest holding. And you…?

Dark you are rightI did buy more last time it came to a pound but a. I didn’t expect gold to enter a bear market and b. V sadly only added a small part to my Hoc, I have just under half a million of them at an ave price of over £1.60 so pretty painful. I continue to hold in the hope that Hoc will survive till prices improve and you can near guarantee that if I am finally so scared that I sell it will mark the turn, as I am not selling yet I expect it will carry on down. If you don’t understand the madnesses and irrationality of private investors I am sorry. The only winners it seems to me are those like Ernesto who look like they see it coming, don’t tell us and sell

Slater for people who live in U.K. which is a lot of this board’s contributors, it is U.K. inflation they need to keep pace with, if you want to be countryless measure gold against a weighted currency basket when it had still done better than inflation, though not as much, but is neither here nor there measuring a basket for U.K. resident with average spending on imports etc. - even less of course against the dollar. However I. very much hope you are right and I am wrong and that gold doesn’t now fall in sterling to get back where it should which would knock Hoc (quoted in STERLING) as above.

If Hoc finally went horizontal it would be great and a huge improvement on the long fall, sadly I am expecting vertical like Bolland, after this short dead cat bounce, but vertically down. As a very high cost miner, we are exceptionally exposed to the combination of tumbling gold price and higher inflation. At least the coming Peruvian tax hike won’t affect us if we aren’t making profits the next couple of years, by which time it might be reversed as mines close and the government take falls

Prof I subscribe if ever you need an article, the article says “Miners have four key decarbonisation metals in focus: lithium, nickel and cobalt, which are all key raw materials for rechargeable batteries, and copper, the mainstay of electrical circuits for over a century, which is needed to help build the infrastructure of a new electrically powered age.” Ths is not a battery metal miner… sadly, and hydrogen is a long way off

brave of you Wild Tiger, however in a bear market it is tough to make money trading by buying and then selling, easier by selling then buying when it mostly falls, but most brokers do not offer this

I think what Slater gets wrong is that actually gold is currently not behind inflation but resoundingly ahead of it, in sterling over recent years, as I have pointed out, so even with big inflation it may still fall to get back where it should be, so it won’t fall because it doesn’t track inflation, which it does, but because it has done too well in a time of easy money and got ahead of itself. . Kitco headline today suggests gold price of $900 within a couple of years, by which time we would be bust, hope the fall is not that deep and we soldier through, even if not making money.

Depends if kitco headline is right today about gold to hit $900 by 2024, and against rip roaring inflation. At that price we would be losing over £100m a year so would be worth a few pence and then nothing. The truth is that although most pundits think the gold bear market will continue no one actually knows and luckily they are often wrong.

well deeply at least Slater seems to get it right, none of us want Hochschild to fall but many see gold charts looking terrible and the metal under pressure as real interest rates turn positive; most of all the failure of demand to materialise despite Ukraine, super high inflation, low rates etc is pretty concerning as investment is quite a fashion business and the PM miners still seem to be going out of fashion. Sometime it will turn which is why I hold but for now I think it is still on the way down, we are seeing a half hearted bounce to draw suckers in, and Slater is right so thanks Slater so thanks to him or her or it and also those who civilly disagree with them.,

Yes Mike, but I reckon Chrome is heading towards contributing a third of profit as it rises and PGM’s fall. Our PE for first half should be about 5, but if PGM’s stay where they are or fall further, as seems likely with the big Chines slowdown, either our PE will rise or the share price fall. I am hoping that Chrome stays up though I don’t really understand why it has so far, as most other metals fall in the face of recession? However given the state of the world THS seems as good a place as any to be parked even if it faces downside.