Member Info for Sotolo

earnings per share will not be as high as those estimates, these estimates didn't take account of exceptional rising costs and falling sales price heavily denting profits, I think we will be luck if they are half that - assuming things don't get worse. eps was 3c in 2020, 15c only in the very good 2021. So if we actually get 5c div won't be bad at all. historical y we have got 3 or 4 c, maybe 6.

It is not Brad’s handling of news flow that is the problem but the reality of what they find or don’t. Ie don’t shoot the messenger

Rob, much as he might like to I sadly can’t see any way of Brad getting the share price up enough for the warrants to be exercised? What can he do? This is an exploration stock with a long time till any gold might be mined. Sadly in a rising interest rate environment such distant jam tomorrow companies are marked down further as rates rise more. Poor Brad, poorer us.

No one else here? I have waited over a week to reply. Sorry Visitor I thought I was very clear that I think next year’s PE is very hard to calculate as no one knows next year’s PGM (and chrome) prices. However I have been suggesting they will fall (as they have begun to) and believe if the world enters recession they will continue to. In a bear market people see prices falling and assume PE’s will too, just as the US S&P PE has fallen over 20%, however they forget that earnings will fall too, pushing PEs up again unless prices fall further. I too am holding on but expect THS to a pound at least and even at that price with considerably lower earnings a higher PE next year. Let us all hope I am wrong, but each week shows lower metal prices and thus much lower profits.

Gold only 3% off its sterling all time high, of course needs to make up about 12% inflation since then, so about 15% off high so IF Cey got costs back to just 15% of where they were, and production back where it was profits would only be down 50% from when gold was at all time high, so share price should be back up above a pound, so come in Centamin we are waiting for the promised lower costs and extra ounces afte this crazy two years

Mike thanks for your kind words and thoughtful analysis, this is such a lovely and respectful board. Visitor, thanks too, however the much appreciated detailed sums you do with past and current figures dont really apply looking beyond this year’s figures, that are happily over half baked in, as no one can calculate next year’s profit or this PE without making a big assumption about next year’s prices. Looking forward to the next year the biggest thing affecting us will probably be PGM and chrome prices, (even more than higher costs), one can only shoot from the hip taking a macro view on these. If a recession were to halve this year’s average price, which is perfectly possible, then profits might quarter. On the other hand if inflation put them up 50% profits might double. I admire your detailed analysis of where profits would be at these prices, and thank you for it, most encouraging as long as next year prices stay the same, but my view is that the current fall will continue for now as rates rise, so this year’s profits will be a bit lower than you expect and next year our PE might be considerably higher (or share price lower), but as we know even the experts have very little prescience.

Mike, sad that I posted less than two working says ago how amazing THS holding up in light of much reduced basket, and that the share price has immediately fallen over 10% .....but I didn't sell. Story of my life is posting when a fall is coming, as also often on Centamin, and never being able to bring myself to do so, I imagine this will near 100 again relatively soon but I am still not selling, hope others are wiser. I remain a long term holder tho expect either PE will double to 8 as profit falls or price will fall to keep it the same, but will still get a decent dividend and hopefully the tightening will end before the electric takeoff stops PGMs picking up with the economy, so will come good. I think you are right Mike that this will fall less than some investments but a fall is still a fall and while miners benefit form inflation they certainly don't from recession; always very much appreciate your wisdom

Chas. Sadly you are looking in the rearview mirror, with gold at these sorts of prices and falling, and costs they are even if they come down a bit, the dividend is likely to be substantially lower next year, hence a lower share price in my humble opinion tho should still be a decent yield on a much lower share price than previously

Sorry visitor the figures I was looking at had Chromium 99%Min China Spot fall $500 on 1st June again yesterday, smallish falls but reversing the uptrend. Also with Rh the main constituent of our PGM basket down 40% since start of March I expect our forward PE might be rather higher than you suggest. Still of course good value which is why I hold but less room to take account of the coming economic slowdown imho. Sensible Tiger pointer this out a month ago and had exited at considerably higher prices expecting these falls and sadly more. - they. Seem daily at the moment. I continue to say I am surprised THS has held up better than the market so far if now it os beginning to catch up.

Well less than 2hrs trading after posting it is amazing THS holding up on Fri pM it is sadly down again, the market was quicker than usual to cotton on, of course still overvalues at current and falling PGM and chrome prices but market is I hope looking beyond the recession, rather than working in a old world of PGM prices, and car and stainless steel etc sales, to when vehicle sales etc start picking up rather than falling but that could be a while!

Thanks Deepjoy, heading off to Crete next week, first flights in 2 years airlines willing, planning to reinvest £18k divi back in Cey when it arrives, as said I think it is not as bad as many think and should begin to rise - tho not sure why that thought merits my holiday but thank you!

As Keynes said, in the long run we are all dead, and in the long run Andrew Maguire has to be right, or at least there has to be a universe in which he is, for say anything often enough and it has to once be true, so one day he will be right and gold will soar, tho so far over the last few thousand years it has broadly tracked inflation as, with its advance rise over the last 5 years in the world of super low interest rates, it continues to. If inflation catches up with the rise in gold, which seems likely soon, we should see a gold rise, if not of the sort the salesman MaGuire tries to suck us in with. Have a jolly weekend and a final thought, for many years many here thought Cey brilliant, now many write it is awful, well imho it is neither as good as you thought when you panned me for saying the price should fall, nor as bad as you think now, so just as many write it is an awful share I do believe that it shall begin to rise….I would buy more, and will when I get the whopping divi

Yes indeed Bhargav, invested here over 10 years (like me) and stock will have fallen 6 fold, invested over 20 years (like me) and stock will have fallen 25 fold, imagine the same money invested in houses. So I am about 50 times+ worse off from being invested in OMI, I stick here having written the million shares off, but I wonder whether the next 20 years will see another 25x fall?

Slater, I think maybe you miss the key point that Tornadotony points out: hoc isn’t a long term miner like Barrick or Centamin, with long life gold mines, but in essence an exploration company that is very risky. It’s Peruvian mines are running out and it seeks replacements mostly from others’ cast offs like Snip. This is a very difficult game, but IF perchance they get it right and have great luck the company would of course become a lot more valuable. As it is, it is a tired very high cost miner which in these inflationary times is somewhat unfortunate if still worth a punt,

Well I spoke a little soon as it has taken a 5% lurch but still hasn’t nearly caught up and a way to go but as said an hour ago of course chromium is helping but that is down a bit too, most encouraging that the market is looking beyond the coming slump viz ths even with this 5% off, or less encouraging just hasn’t caught up yet and this 5% is just the first of quite a few I expect as we probably head back towards a hundred if PGM’s continue to fall and chrome follows with a recession

Amazing how well THS is holding up in light of much reduced basket that continues to fall, of course chromium is helping but that is down a bit too, most encouraging that the market is looking beyond the coming slump viz ths or less encouraging just hasn’t caught up yet?

Leeds with ii dividend is usually paid the same day, with Barclay’s Smartinvestor can wait weeks and make dozens of phone calls chasing - hence I am moving from them!

Slater I agree with all you say apart from I believe the charts show that gold does reflect inflation, just not in the short term but over the longer term. So the question is how much of gold’s rise from 2016 outpacing inflation, means quite a bit of inflation is already in the price, and how much may come in the next few years. Of course the challenge with miners is unlike the metal their costs go up with inflation so over the long term they tend not to make money unless they find more gold, which is a challenging and increasingly expensive process, pushing costs up further, and not to be relied on as Hichschild shows. Billie I think in the short term goals moves not with the rate on Treasuries, but the difference between the 10 year inflation adjusted Treasuries and the interest rate, i.e. whether real interest rates are negative or positive. The impedimental gold recently has been these real rates moving from negative to positive Imho

Dark PM’s are stuck for lack of buyers over sellers as many big hedge funds expect inflation to begin to reverse later in the year just as interest rates are rising hitting gold so they are selling in advance imho

Hedged great sums but the basket price is I reckon 10% below what you say knocking your profit figures by maybe 20% and falling which, if it continues through this year as recession bites and people get poorer, will knock them further