Member Info for Sotolo

I agree Bhargav, days numbered maybe a few hundred days left before Omi hopefully taken out, hopefully for rather more, be interesting to see how much we are above and below 15p in next year

Impecunious, for Newmont it is one of many chicken feed investments. They are like Venture Capitalists who need one huge hit that outweighs nine failures, for Newmont it doesn't matter which category Omi falls into, they can afford lots of minnow prospects like Omi's as long as one or two of their investments become huge mines. Odds are of course stacked against Omi being the one but if it is we make a huge amount, for Newmont it is a more rational bet and doesn't matter much if Anza is a winner or loser

Gold Gnome. The media contains all sorts of opinions, try the Spectator v New Statesman, the Guardian v the Telegraph or TV docs like Martin Durkin's documentary series Against Nature, “which attacked the environmental movement as being a threat to personal freedom and for crippling economic development” and lambasted climate change. I think he is wrong but defend to the hilt his right to say it and broadcaster to put on those of different opinions just as I love different opinions here, I only take exception to those who **** the other view off, or **** off a single entity “the Media” informed by Steve Bannon and Dominic Cummings, the seemingly successfulespouses of partial propaganda. I am so please d to live in a country of varying views in the press, those who falsely criticise it as one behemoth are only hastening the day that is just what they get imho

Actually Amarillo share price would have been a fair bit cheaper now, as agree nearly a year ago. Hocschild price back then, in the middle of last Nov when the price was agreed, was 150p so more like us getting, with a 66% premium, £2.50! One of the reasons Hoc has fallen so much is we paid for Amarillo when all miners were worth a fair bit more (we paid 350% more than the price in March 2020) though Hoc has of course tumbled more than most, as said not helped by this. But beggars can’t be choosers and they so badly needed the ounces

Hochschild is a bit like one of those permanent sale stores used to be, you think you have bought it cheap but you can always get it cheaper! My view, at the risk of annoying some who only like a single opinion, is that Hoc is like Cey but 18 months later and without the balance sheet strength. Ie Centamin has already passed its nadir and its share price has begun to anticipate the recovery through 2023 and 2024; I have held on, on the basis that this would happen and being no good at timing. Hoc should begin recovering a year or more later, in 2024 and more so 2025, so I expect the share price to start rising in anticipation mid 2023 with gold staying the same, as long as nothing unforeseen happens as is the case so often with miners. Meantime I shall hold and wait. If gold falls further but recovers then too, as long as Hoc survives this it could be very golden!

Thanks Cowichan, fascinating and salutary article on the impending demise of the Euro which would certainly affect the gold price, great and scary read, thanks

Siko it is always a shame when bulletin boards become like this, and become full of intolerant arguments about political views. However this board actually has far less political raving or insults than most. Siko you are hugely valued by me and many others for your views that are so pertinent to the company, as are the views of many on fiscal and more important monetary and interest rate policy that will affect the direction of gold, and of economies in general. I also hugely respect those who work in the NHS and devote their lives to helping others, it may or may not be well run - I am sure you have fascinating views on that - but that doesn't affect gold or Centamin so is an argument for elsewhere as you respect. I worked in the BBC and other media for many years and get very upset when some here call into question my colleagues integrity, who have all been tarnished by the clever fake news moniker, again nothing to do with our company. Please do not leave, Siko and hopefully views will be more about Centamin and what may affect it ,and gold, and as a result we will all respect and listen to each other more as not to do with Brexit, party politics, media, vaccines, etc. Dear Siko, despite these aberrations that just stir up the hornets nest of the last few years, this wonderful board is made up of optimists and pessimists, bulls and bears, buyers and sellers, and rightly so for who knows which way economies will go. and we can all learn from each other There are so many decent people here but none more so than yourself and it would be so upsetting if you left. Both I and Mr Tibbles have been driven away by intolerance and rants in the past, so they have always been here, but I do hope like us you miss it and return. God luck all

Thanks Nimrod rather grim reading across the board for PGM’s with falling demand, even big miners like Anglo are on lowly PE’s in expectation of falling profits. Presumably Chrome outlook just as bad with big Chinese slowdown tho don’t have headwind of faster than expected switch from ICE to BEV to compound recession and chip shortages

Thanks Modestus I am hoping the same as said

Be sensible! If goes up you will still be making money, if falls not as bad. I have same question and am sticking tho 5% of mine which is plenty

Modestus you asked why I bought, I bought most of my holding in the years after 2016 when it was looking very good, hence mentioning the chairman’s sale which came after. I am not whining just answering your question and telling it as it is as I have been, and pretty right sadly so far, I expect Hoc to survive and go much higher, why I hold and even occasionally add as you will see from some of my posts, however I feel it incumbent to issue a warning to a potential buyer who muddles up Amarillo, Aclara, Mara Rosa. As said this is not for the faint hearted, and could go belly up, but if you would prefer just to see posts about how this share is about to soar, and would have preferred that for the last two years however untrue, I would be happy to step out, but some people may appreciate an honest view, I know I appreciate different views from different people

I became a shareholder as the shares looked good value, but that was before the Aclara disaster - given shares that cost me and failed permits quartered price - Peruvian election that hammered shared - Palancata doing much worse than expected - Inmaculada repermitting threatened - Mr Hoc wisely selling out a large hunk - Arcata closed - San Jose becoming much more expensive and with Argentinian politics, but I always think the latest setback is in the newly fallen price, and never learn! Sorry. Also the Amarillo purchase wasn't bad, just not a great time to pile on the debt it now turns out imho. There is an awful lot of 'now turns out' about this share, I always think it can't get any worse as now so why sell.. and then not does!

SorryTornado, yes of course, Hoc acquired Volcan in 2012 and has done little since. It has huge potential but as Aclara shows permitting in Chile can be hard especially with current politics there. Again Volcan will eat capital in an era of v high interest rates, as supposed to churning out much needed cash. A lot is riding on Inmaculada paying for all this, if we return to last year when it seemed Inmaculada would not be allowed to continue by the government it would ruin us. Conversely IIIIIFFFF Inmaculada keeps going as is, and Volcan and Mara Rosa come good and gold goes up oh and is that a pig I see flying….then we shall be singing

Hi Freedom, I am not sure you should be buying Hoc till you understand a bit more about it, though I know that isn’t easy as they like to keep it obfuscated in a web.
Aclara is their rare earth mine that they floated off, giving us separate shares. These shares tumbled when they failed to get permissions, Hoc has just written off $10m and it ended up actually costing us as they did gave us shares in a way that the likes of me paid 38% tax on the shares at a value 4 times today. Pretty very annoying, to say the least and typical of a lack of care or interest in minority shareholders.
Mara Rosa is an Amarillo mine, so the same thing - I think you are confusing Amarillo and Aclara - we bought Amarillo as many of our own mines are running out, and our ounces produced are falling each year while costs rise. This is the main reason for the huge share price fall, alongside worries politics will make this worse. Mara Rosa is at least Brazil not Peru. However we paid a lot for it when the gold price was higher, worse we are now heavily geared again having borrowed to pay for it and it won’t deliver for a couple of years IF all goes to plan which is rare for Hoc. Most unfortunate to become heavily borrowed again as we were before 2015 just as interest rates soar. However if we survive till Mara Rosa delivers, which depends on gold not tumbling as expected, ounces and profits should rise again.
Snip is a worn out Barrick mine if I remember right that they got rid of. We now hope to find more there. It is not huge but is in Canada so safer.
So we are thrashing about in an effort to escape expiring mines and Peruvian politics. But the share price reflects this and the possibility we may be one of those companies that expires in this coming crash…unless gold was to turn. ( we also mine some silver but that is rapidly falling)

DONT shoot the messenger. 2.5 years ago many old people were dying of Covid, the pictures from Italian hospitals at the start were truly horrid, and it was very frightening for the elderly seeing so many of their fellows struck down again as they were in the war, and for whom a decent society should care. Now people in poverty, and the elderly living on state pensions, are suffering worse than others from inflation and until energy is subsidised or payments come to them for it yes indeed they have to choose between food and heat which will be very tough this winter. It looks very much like the oil price shock of the 70’s and we know what that did. If gas prices fall right back, inflation falls and no recession, well the media won’t have been wrong about what will happen if we carry on as we are, just the circumstances happily changing partly as a result. Don’t shoot the messenger but choose her to help inform your investment decisions. Will recession and a tumbling stock market cause gold and more so miners to fall, and will they turn back up as investors seek sanctuary, and if so when?

Ilja, I wonder if you have access to todays London Daily Telegraph that has a somewhat frightening article headed “ Why South Africa is on the precipice of 'explosive violence' and mass unrest” . Given you are on the ground, and only 120km from Jo’burg, I wonder how you see the dangers of a near inevitable Arab Spring, that the article takes about, affecting Tharisa?Thanks, but much appreciate your view as perhaps the single thing that will most affect our share price, more than the coming recession or if PGM or Chromium prices tumble

I think the market is looking at $1500 gold, aisc rising another 10% with inflation, and fewer oz with Pallancata closed so little profit and none after all the capex not all of which is in aisc. Of course if things turn out better Hoc will rise, but a lot of the future is speculative….

If I wanted to take a gold mine over I would keep my older dry wait for gold to fall a fair bit further and get it for much less. Unless I was a company like Hoc that had to buy 6 months ago as their gold running out

Slater I do t think gold has failed on your two criteria
A. It mimics inflation mid and long term. It preempted this bout. It is up 50% in 4 years and nearly 10 fold this century, but had gone too far too fast.
B. It reacts conversely to expected real interest rates, ie the bank rate against the ten year tips (inflation linked), this real rate has been rising and has gone positive, as market expects inflation to fall mid term, hence gold’s immediate fall imho. Gold doesn’t react fast to financial moves but the bigger picture. It has been right on inflation, it may be right or wrong on real rates but it is usually pretty prescient and says considerably higher rates will cause falling inflation

Slater presumably some miners go bust, over indebted high cost like…., then with less overall output prices rise and tose remaining, the ones with strong balance sheets and low costs thrive