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Why strange, the Rothschilds got rich with the maxim buy on the rumour, sell on the news

JG the figures were ridiculously much worse than expected, Pallancata cost though the roof, just bought replacement in Brazil will eat capital before hopefully producing in two years, Aclara right down debt gone from positive to minus over 100m which is a lot on back of what company is worth, and Volcan being readied hopefully another Aclara type sale but at a v tough time for doing so tho hopefully not as badly managed. I can’t bear to seek as such a huge loss, but I certainly wouldn’t be buying more as always cheaper, and company getting perilously close to making losses (last eps already negative)

2.1p of todays fall is going ex div if I have it right so Cey is actually down about 1.3p just now, it has held up remarkably well SO FAR in the face of tumbling gold that the majority of economists seem to think will fall further as real interest rates rise. If you look at the inflation indexed 10 yr tip, ie the real interest rate, it is remarkably inverse to gold over decades. It was rising and hit positive real rates through this year, had a respite in August and gold did a recovery, and now on real rates are the way up again ie treasury investors, a massive market, expect rates to rise more than inflation on a 10 yr frame, so not good for Cey. A bit like 2013-15. However at some point that will turn, could be next year could be later this decade and baring political catastrophe I expect Cey to be around to do well. Another thought, if Cey has held up this well since the last results with collapsing gold, think how much it would have risen with rising gold, the market is finally buying the Horgan story. The big question for us is how low Cey will go and which of us will be frightened out when, and who will stay the course and alive chattering away here about Centamin, it’s prospects the metal it sells, and the economy it sells into

Hoc is so far marginally up today as 1.65 of loss is going ex div and it hasn’t lost quite that, if I have it right

200 day moving ave is 10.5, the 20 day 9.5, IF this rise keeps going could have a golden cross to confirm it, we shall see

Tornado any idea why they acquired Volcan over a decade ago but have done pretty much nothing with it till now, was thinking of writing to the new mine CEO to ask why, seems strange?

This is a report from Nedbank on mining posted by the investor relations manager of THS on their board, who puts our communications to shame. It applies particularly to Hoc and what Tornado was saying, partly why it is going to be a tough couple of years.
"Industry is undercapitalised. Real capex levels have been falling sharply since 2008 and remain extremely low
relative to historical levels, despite the sharp increase in nominal capex in recent years. This reflects the undercapitalisation of the industry over the past decade and the impact of inflationary pressure seen across the industry. We believe a large element of catchup capex needs to be spent to replace reserves, in the absence of which production
could decline sharply over the next 5 to 10 years, in our view. Most producers have already embarked on some growth initiatives, but more is needed, in our view, especially given the significant inflationary pressure seen over the past few years."

Ilja, congratulations on 50th, thanks for being the best communicator from any company to these boards, and you thoroughly deserve time properly off without answering us as you do so well.

Tornado thanks for a great summary, I just think their timing is a bit late getting Snip and Amarillo, though vital to replace the lost ounces, and a lot depends on Vulcan that doesn't seem to have moved a lot in the over 10 years they have owned it. I do hope they get their act together and are saved by gold returning to $1800 and above as costs are likely to get a fair bit higher particularly with such enormously increased energy costs in a very energy intensive industry, ie will need $2000 gold to be equivalent to $1800 last year.

I notice on shares traded so far today, Hochschild, Centamin even tiny minnow Orosur all a few hundred thousand, THS just 15, there is amazingly little interest in Tehran’s company at the moment also as shown on these boards

Gosh thank you, I also noticed a note from Goldman yesterday saying invest in commodities now, PGM’s still holding just below $2500

Also unusually big volume

Tumbling again at the open, as said you can always buy this for less if not tempted but keep waiting

Mike, in that case where do you see the share price going over the next year, halving or some such along with the market or holding despite greatly increased costs? At least we are in a decent position going into this.

Spoonington you seem surprisingly wise, with 10% gold insurance. However the question is whether gold miners are insurance or the opposite, risky speculation, as costs seem to rise mid term faster than the price of gold as finding it becomes tougher, unlike base metals where dealing mostly depends on newly mined, so you may be protected by your gold while we lose with our miners, especially in falling sterling where the gold price fall is less while the gold price cost rises are more. Where is your other 90%?

Yes low reserves and life of mines in existing properties Pallancata San Jose and to a lesser extent Inmaculada which is why they have to go hell for leather spending on finding new and risky resources in those and on new properties that won’t deliver for a while, Snip, Amarillo and Vulcan. However IF all comes good before the money runs out we shall make loads, a very big if in tumbling gold and silver secondario that is oncoming

Just wondering how this affects Centamin? Greater drought and Worse harvests in Egypt leads to more unrest, hits miners, or more world unrest leads to higher gold, which will win out and over what time frame, if in our grandchildren’s lifetime won’t Centamin have disappeared by then. So would love to know your views on how stagflation, mad gas prices etc will affect Cey, do you expect commodities and inflation to fall back as after the 70’s, and do you think. These may affect the share price more than long term warming that may or may nor be usual for the planet as you argue about?

Mike, I think ILJA is probably on holiday as not replying as usual to posts below. Actually so far the THS basket is holding up quite well and I make it still around $2450, though costs will be increasing fast especially in an energy intensive industry; however I imagine the tumble will begin now. The much bigger worry, per my question to Ilja, is if mines have a tough time and some close, plus the real incomes of extremely poor people fall and there is even bigger unemployment, it will just exacerbate the political unrest in South Africa which could become extremely unstable,

Spoonington, sorry you are wrong, you opening a short on the S&P didn’t presage a rise, only for you to lose loads. Instead you were brave, utterly right and must have made a bucket with more to come. Sadly in a bear market (as in a bull) the trend is your friend and it is down, always worth selling and buying back later, wish I had your guts, congrats!!

Damn Hereus for their honesty, and also thanks for their heads up, chromium still slipping unsurprisingly