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Mr B I think the market is accepting a recession. It along with inflation, stagflation or worse so not necessarily a recession with falling real rates where investors run for gold?

Well first I wouldn’t listen to AM, second any future price is a number out of a hat. ‘If gold recovers’ we’ll where to? At $3000 we would be making an extra $500m so teh share price might be 10 times higher, at $1400 an ounce we will be losing money and pur cash running out, back at $2000 an ounce profit and share price should near double. So where 90p comes from no idea.

Well, I to a loss of 1c a share even at these relatively high gold and silver prices due to fall further
Annual dividend, 4.25c which is about 4%
Costs up a third not helped by Pallancata silver costing over 30c a share to get out and near double the price it sells for partly mitigated by the hedge for now
Balance sheet from positive to over $100m debt
Aclara $9m write down also as expected
So as grim as expected, but….

The future they say looks good and the $100m+ spent on Amarillo they think will come good. As frequently said if we can come through a capital intensive period on much needed new resources at a time of rising interest rates and falling PM prices then the future looks better but not for a couple of years. Much where Centamin was a year or two ago, now recovering as expected but the share price suffered in the mean time

Well we seem to have had the bounce, PGMs and Chromium now falling again. Still we have plenty of cash to stick it out for now, lucky they only pay 17% of profit dividend

Well good luck all, see you at 715

Market reducing price in prep for tomorrow?

Well Dark two questions jump straight out
Cash (important if PM’s tumble) was $86m 6 months ago, $54m at end Mar and negative $106m at end June, now will be sharply negative but how much? We are leveraging at just the wrong moment but maybe only option. But the market knows all this, just as I do which is why the share price has halved in the last year
Aisc was $1136, it will be a few hundred dollars higher leaving a smaller margin as gold falls, guidance was $1350 but it could be higher?
But the market like me should know this and the share price has

where do you get that from, don't think so, would be PE of around 8? I think you will be very sorely disappointed or I would be flabbergastedly happy at this but sadly we won't be earning 10c a share nor anything the best ever other than maybe speed of debt rise

but just look at how little interest there is on this board, THS has had just 6 posts this month, Hochschild around 100, and the likes of Centamin, that is not huge; many hundreds. THS ove Ron advfn is even deader, it is out of fashion and neglected, part of the reason for the very very low share price unless PGM’s and Chrome implode

If you notice I had the same problem buying 11000 a couple of weeks ago at 99p, and never did. It is a rather illiquid share with few deals for its size. Hocschild, that is not much larger and has a big family holding, has had near 300 trades in the last hour, Tharisa 0.

More important this week the move at results is whether gold and silver, both having reversed a third of their fall, ow turn back down as expected, or continue to rise signalling the fall is over. For if down it will be a bad moment for Hoc with the new mines a few years away, borrowings at higher interest rates to make them work, and higher costs immediately from lower output. Anyone know current borrowings, which years due and at what interest rate as the last report I find will be somewhat out of date now. As said before I hope they make a big dividend cut to help conserve cash through what could be a very difficult time if this week shows we are headed back down again

Thanks for asking and I guess you can imagine that Centamin etc’s fall has scuppered that; I get berated almost every day as we squish in a tiny flat above the garage in the most beautiful oak wood waiting to get back to the price a couple of years ago and build the house of our dreams. Meantime as Cey has more than halved and hoc worse, building prices soar, it makes me feel an abject failure. I did earn that money myself in a vey successful creative career but feel a big let down to my nearest at choosing to invest in gold, thinking it would be the thing in an increasingly crazy economy and world, and believing that it should rise, when in truth it is only what people think it is a bit like that old emperor… however our wood is magical, weather brilliant, neighbours kind, surrounded by river sea and forests to walk and swim in, though times and some people seem a bit weird as is the nature of this point in the cycle, in fact the world is going entirely as expected in terms of. very long term cycles, just gold is proving rather slow to catch up and it can be decades late which won’t suit me, as I shall be dead! Have a lovely weekend.

Dark, I am hoping the results will be bad like Centamins’s which had
Lower ounces KNOWN
Higher costs KNOW
Reduced dividend ASSUMED
BUT most of the bad news is out and the future forCentamin looks brighter

I am hoping the same for Hoc
Pallancata closing KNOWN
Ounces down known
Costs up KNOWN
And I assume reduced dividend
But just as long as Inmaculada has run well and looks like getting future permits
The political news looks better
And the company sounds positive about Amarillo Snip and Volcan could be positive. So the question is whether Hoc is overbombed out by bad news as Centamin so anything reasonable will lift it or another nasty surprise. I bought some more in hope of the former, Slater thinks ai am wrong and may well be proved right. Have a lovely weekend.

It is not the news flow that is the problem but the lack of enough great news behind it, I have to say Brad was clever to raise money at over double this price which will hopefully tide us through to a recovery or we will be diluted out

…and Centamin rose near 15% si è last weeks results. Depends how much bad news is in the price and if there is any more

prof lovely to hear from you, I think the point is maybe AM is obfuscating to cloak his simple selling message, that 3bear has deciphered for,us in what looks like complex justification. I got a bit involved in early stages the making of the Millennium Dome years ago, I could never understand what is was supposed to be about as I sat through endless prolix meetings. I thought I was too stupid to understand, but it turns out actually because there was no substance to it, just bogus ideas masked by language. So thanks 3bear, I think your summary is just it even if Prof thinks a little brutal, and agree with you that others shouldn’t be dissuaded, as you say “ if I've got this wrong I don't want to dissuade people from listening”

Tibbs thanks for the link to PR, II don’t follow His advice, if I had I would be far richer, instead I stick around here Hoc and THS watching dreams slip ever further away. If I followed PR I would sell it all now and avoid probably losing another half! All the best and as ever praying your AM is right one day!

Paul do you mean Tiger by the Tail, if so he was banned from LSE for sensibly saying a company’s share price would tumble, many on these boards only approve of bulls. Having sold out of Cey near the top, with his Russian knowledge he did brilliantly at the start of the war, then at the start of April he suggested THS might not be so good (since -30%) SLP better (since flat), also suggested Anglo Easter Plantations AEP (I didn’t buy as palm oil and pretty horrid but since up 20%), Kist (+15%) while Hoc has fallen a further 35% and Cey is about level. You can see him saying all this to me over on the THS advfn board at the start of April so I should say he is pretty brilliant while I am a dunce sticking with THS and HOC tho at least Cey has level pegged.

PM is not a old mate, I have only been reading him the last year, but he seems to call it more right than most of the others having been bearish, then in advance the rise 1680-1800 saying it would be a dead cat bounce and on down again, we shall see. But at least he gives good economic reasons rather than conspiracy theories and tea leaves.. My old mate is Gary Wagner who I have followed for years and seems pretty good, I met him in Hawaii when he took me out for some fab prawns from a van. As for AM he will have to be right an awful lot to draw level with the proverbial dart throwing monkey, hope he finally is even if the explanation will probably be wrong imho

Slater I think I am going to buy a Monkey and some darts which might be more helpful with silver and this share, and certainly more fun. On another note over on advfn some of the permabulls who have been critical of my calling Hoc lower over the past year or two, are now selling out. I think this might be a contrarian indicator so have bought a few more, maybe foolhardy with PM’s probably about to tumble again, but this company is very sold and, though it has been paying a lot for new mines so it’s balance sheet is not at all what you would like with what is coming, all this may be in the price?