Member Info for Sotolo

As you know I bought quite a lot of my shares above £2 so despite getting more on the way down quite a way off breaking even. Also I think that despite Brad’s appearing so unimpressive this is still prospective and if ot goes right for Newmont and Agnico they could buy us out. They are not yet as they do not know. Nor do I, but I hope…and am honest rather than just saying what I would like to be the future

and Bhargav he appeared not to think the share price would rise enough in the next couple of months for the w arrants to be excercised

If £30m is too low why wasn’t it snapped a month ago when half the price?

Nice to see Bhargav name checked but Brad really isn’t vet impressive, what other ceo keeps saying it is beyond my pay grade, or I can never buy shares as always know too much ….

Swamp that is a pretty accurate description of market sentiment, indeed the market thinks this is a silver play, and indeed being rather illiquid it has exaggerated movements, though sadly on the downside as well as the up. Bushy Centamin is a great company, unlike Hoc it has a very long life of mine, large reserves, even prospects of growth in ounces, plans for reducing costs, and profits that should now begin to rise, very different as wise Tornado says

Thanks Bhargav, on another note if so undervalued and prospects so good why didn’t Newmont Agnico make a bid for the company when the price was 8p recently, at even double or treble that, if they know it will cost them more later

Bushy also your figures are not correct? I take them from Hochschild. Sadly the correct figures help explain share price. Of course if yours were right and the company wrong the shares would be undervalued, if only….or was it genuinely another company you were posting on.

Yes hopefully, one who says it is as it is, which is quite simply you can always get the share for less, which has proved true now for a year or two it upsets me as much or more than you don’t shoot the messenger

Bushy, just wondered which company you are posting about, presumably not Hoc, as sadly the aisc , tho hard to calculate with their equivalent ounces, is is almost certainly nearing $1500 and probably above with falling output and soaring inflation. At current gold silver ratio that is $16 in silver ounces, around 25% above your figure

There is no floor under production in this company, with Pallancata’s imminent closure followed perhaps by San Jose, especially if PM’s fall further, and Inmaculada potential permitting worries

Their net cash is not +200m but after debt owing -100m,

Once extensive and vital capital expenditure on replacement mines added in very little if any profit now and especially if gold breaks below 1680 which looks likely, so please tell me the lovely company you are posting on and I can buy shares in it. Gosh so miserable that, given above you can always buy Hoc cheaper

Thanks Bhargav and best of luck, and to us all, as always.

Seingred, quite so. Also Bhargav was right on the way up to 40 but the last half of that wa a typical aim frenzy evinced by the huge number of posts on this board at that time. Sadly his optimism hasn’t proved right with the share price for the last couple of years. So I agrees Seingred that the price was low at 7 but from her could go either way so a big gamble. Not minding that I remain a holder but not for those not prepared to lose so better to take Seingrad’srealistic warning that the unbridled and to me unrealistic optimism of some.

Elliot waves, Kondratieff cycles the Fourth Turning’s thesis is “ Modern history moves in cycles, each one lasting about the length of a long human life, each composed of four eras—or "turnings"—that last about twenty years and that always arrive in the same order. In The Fourth Turning, the authors illustrate these cycles using a brilliant analysis of the post-World War II period.
First comes a High, a period of confident expansion as a new order takes root after the old has been swept away. Next comes an Awakening, a time of spiritual exploration and rebellion against the now-established order. Then comes an Unraveling, an increasingly troubled era in which individualism triumphs over crumbling institutions. Last comes a Crisis—the Fourth Turning—when society passes through a great and perilous gate in history. Together, the four turnings comprise history's seasonal rhythm of growth, maturation, entropy, and rebirth.”. Waves seem to explain a lot. As to next week hard to tell, Gold has strong resistance on the way down, at 1680, the bottom so often recently. If it breaks as seems more probable, gold will fall to the 1500’s or more and Cey will be on break even, whether that happens this week or this month who knows. It is possible but unlikely that it will find a bottom again at $1680. However as said before I believe that after a dramatic fall that will shake a lot of us out as we maybe see it halve again, then gold, given the cycles above, is going to be fab, and hopefully the miners that are here will soar far more than they tumbled, as long as shareholders haven’t been very diluted by emergency rights issues, and those of us in the world that survive wars poverty hunger and being killed, the results of a big post money printing depression.

Gnome, very interesting and great to post a link to someone who knows what he is talking about and not trying to sell us anything. I am a big believer in 80/90 year cycles (roughly the time humanity takes to forget). Try reading the Fourth Turning written quarter of a century ago which has been right so far and predicts that the end-event(s) of this cycle would occur anywhere between 2020 and 2026. Gnome, as Nial Ferguson says in your link, this is not a repeat of the 70’s but far worse. Over the last two years I have discussed with many friends whether we were in the early 1920’s again so roaring twenties to come after Spanish flu, or the 1930’s. I have come to the conclusion it is the 30’s. Gold will provide a safety net, but will we be secure with miners? My expectation is that gold will fall first, before soaring. However for us mine holders it may not be so rosy as in the fall, depending how far and long, Some the higher cost worse balance sheet miners like Hochschild may be knocked out, though I expect Centamin may hang on if an Egyptian revolution doesn’t destroy it. Interesting times and thanks for a link that isn’t from a snake oil charmer. I also find Ray Dalio informative. Finally David Graeber, author of a great History of Debt, last book was a fascinating history of the world that suggested Hobbes (we started wicked in nature and remain so, so need strong rulers) Rousseau,( we started good but society made us bad), and I guess Christianity (we started bad but can become good), are wrong as actually it is all circular ie cycles so sometimes bad sometimes good. And we are certainly at the worst point int. the cycle, I just think that whatever happens we are so lucky to have been born at the start of the long uptick so have lived through a great peaceful and expanding time with moreideas creativity and tolerance, and the world is getting worse now we are old so we can spit from the old peoples home if there are any to go to.

Yup costs spread amongst more ounces will lower aisc, but I hazard that inflation will raise it more.

Can it really be trues?
LSE shows only 4 deals today,

lower aisc? with increased oil, labour costs etc won’t this obviate the much needed aisc reductions. I shall be happy if aisc just doesn’t rise in which case we should be able survive with $1500 gold and maybe make £20m with $1600 gold if doesn’t go on capex.

I think you are quite right but the latest aisc’s are even worse and as done months ago will be even higher now. Pallancata costs have doubled in a year, and without the hedge would be losing an amazing $12 on every ounce sold. Even with the hedge still losing. Hopefully they can close it super fast and San Jose which is making losses now too. That would leave Inmaculada until/if they can get new mines going. Problem Inmaculada is relatively short life and needs lots of investment to find new ore, which is being cut now because of the crisis and needs of new mines. In the first half Inmaculada was down to 72,000 oz of gold and 2.8m oz of silver. So over a year around 145k gold and 5.6m silver

At aisc of 1200 (less mines to spread overheads) and gold 1600 that would give around £20m post tax with silver about breaking even so just enough to pay the interest on getting the new mines going. Of course all muddled by the equivalent ounces accounting But you can understand the share price. Stunning costs and that is before present even higher inflation

Revised 2022 AISC forecast split

Operation

$/oz Au Eq

$/oz Ag Eq

Inmaculada

1,070-1,100

14.8-15.3

Pallancata

2,130-2,170

29.6-30.1

San Jose

1,500-1,540

20.8-21.4

Total from operations

1,330-1,370

18.5-19.0

Stanley the problem is they use BOTH gold and silver er equivalent ounces and they don’t tally so no idea how much they are losing currently on each ounce mined

Ye Razor as said at 9am going ex div today accounts for about 2.1p of today’s fall. We are now very near the cliff edge, if gold breaks $1675 the multi year bull will be through says TD securities today and they say it is not if but when and likely very soon. As said before, Cey may halve again or worse, but as long as Horgan doesn’t start spending money and stops the unaffordable dividend we should sail through to the uplands later this decade or next…Egypt willing.

The problem in trying to decipher the accounts, and how much they are losing, is the way they give aisc, in the last report: “All-in sustaining costs (AISC) from operations of $1,371 per gold equivalent ounce (H1 2021: $1,055) or $19.0 per silver equivalent ounce (H1 2021: $14.7)[4], in line with guidance”. But what does that mean what is this absurd obfuscating use of equivalent ounces? Currently their $1471 gold is about $15.5 silver or the other way round their. $19 silver cost is $1800 in gold. So which is it? Or is it half way between? They are using a quite artificial and out of date gold silver ratio, but given costs are what matter it is now impossible to say from the figures if they are making any money but I would hazard they are already losing it overall, as Inmaculada profit is outweighed by San Jose and Pallancata losses plus hefty capital expenditure on other mines that may make more losses, but just amazing the figures are deliberately so unclear, a friend an investment analyst, said he would never invest in them for this reason. Hoc come on and give us an aisc for the gold mining in gold ounces and silver mining in silver ounces