Member Info for Sotolo

Patryk. the share price has returned to realistic value, though if gold price falls shares would be lower, current dividend is about 4% so share price is hardly too low, nor much too high looking forward. For IF production rises as predicted and IF costs remain under control and IF gold stays around 1900 hopefully it will rise, but as said realistic for now

Bolland, as I have been posting listen to the Q&A from Monday, the permit or no permit is likely to be non binary, therefore the price will depend on what we get for how long at what cost

Patryk, gold miners tend to lead the gold price, as other note gold had gone up too far too fast and miners have been anticipating that for a couple of weeks, plus with Cey add on the results. Miners tend to be a surprisingly good leading indicator of the gold price, hopefully it is just a big correction but gold is fickle, the miners should give us. Little advance notice

Thorny one, if Inmaculada is closed $3000 gold and $50 silver would save the company, if Inmaculada gets full permit to carry on as is then the current gold price is fine, if somewhere in between as the conference call suggested, then a gold price between depending what the decision is

Silly me, I always forget rule 1 of Hochschild, you can always buy it for less

Amazingly no one asked why ounces will be down yet another 20% in 2023 to around 300k. We did 513k just 5 years ago and downhill ever since as mines run out, so a massive fall. This is the biggest reason Hoc is worth so much less and to my mind why it tumbled today, shocking and unexplained other than Pallancata silver costs near $10 more to get out than the silver price so likely to stop

I listened to the call
The good news seems that the local insurrection seems slightly less bad than it was, and the permit is not dependent on it
The bad news was they are scenario planning for losing Inmaculada as well as keeping it
However for me the most salient was them saying that the permit is not a binary question. Ie it may be renewed with (expensive) strings
Overall a very lacklustre presentation as usual but Bustamente is not a communicator whatever else he may be

I had an afternoon nap and only got in at 66.8p

Paul neither Kinesis nor Basle3 seem to have made much difference to the gold market unsurprisingly

However unltimately today should I think bebroadly neutral, as said imho share price about right on what we know, could soar or tumble on Inmaculada permit when finally comes or doesn’t, but even just 300k ounces making near 600$ an ounce is 100m after tax near covering the huge capex,

Yes down as expected on lower predicted ounces than expected, higher debt than expected, and no permitting news, it remains a big gamble but we all know that!

0.5%

I have now noticed that forward guidance suggests production with be down almost another 20% to near 300k ounces, I wonder why, not just Pallancata dwindling… maybe conf call will explain. Also cash being gobbled with necessary new investment in replacement mines. Share price seems about right all bad things considered but wonder whether it may be down a little on this? It could rise with relief, but likelier a bit lower

Thanks! (Ps my earlier post part capitalised itself, the caps didn’t mean anything tho they were actually in the most important place)

Phew, steady as she goes, ounces only marginally down at Inmaculada and no mention of ongoing difficulties,just the National situation. AISC AS EXPECTED WHICH IS IMPRESSIVE. NOW ALL DEPENDS ON PERMIT AS REPORT SAYS WITHOUT IT Inmaculada would stop production in second half of year. Altogether I am relieved and cheered

bad results from Inmaculada terror and also resulting aisc rise , but how bad, and no xonfirmed extension

Not sure what it has to do with Centamin and where the share price, company and gold are going but fab clips, my partner said ‘he must be a cool man, can’t be one who likes Brexit if he likes New Order, well probably not’ got Tibbs right

Steve I wasn’t talking about the share price but profit, of course the share goes all over the place but ultimately if Cey is making hundreds of thousand profit the share price is likely to be higher than if it makes none. And the good thing is at the current gold price profit looks like it would be around 2/3rds up on last year. I think the share price has risen quite a lot (around 60% coincidentally) in anticipation of this. It fell AC outlet of years ago in anticipation of the collapsed profit that transpires, of course there is not a direct link and lots of noise, but I prefer profit to be increasing.
Oh and Cowichan thanks as ever

Mr Tibbles, that is just my reading, and I think Kees is as ever right: in 2023 ounces mined are predicted to be back up to 465k, with a mid predicted aisc of $1325 cey would be making around $600 an ounce at current gold price or $300k, or hopefully decently over £100k with Emra and royalty removed. Which would put us back on a pe of 13 our historic norm or less as I have been very conservative. Of course we are very geared to any gold rise or fall, but. With luck gold may rise to take account of t he rising aisc, tho we will never get back to the days before the Emra profit share.

Cowichan this from Wikipedia on Harry Dent’ forecasts and performance:
In 2012 the "Dent Tactical Advantage ETF," symbol DENT, was de-listed having consistently under-performed the market for three years while at the same time charging an egregiously high 1.65% management fee.[7]
In 2012, he began writing weekly articles for the free investment newsletter Survive & prosper, now known as: Economy & Markets, which offers investment advice guided by his belief that a major economic crash is inevitable and that it will drop the DOW all the way to 3,300. As of early 2013, he has amended his predictions slightly to an expectation that the financial crash will begin between the end of 2013 and the first half of 2014.[citation needed]
In 2013, Dent predicted the market would crash again in the Summer of 2013 and would take a further year and a half to recover.[8]
In 2014, while promoting his book The Demographic Cliff in Australia, he predicted a major Australian housing market correction beginning in 2014 after an even bigger one in China.[9] He also predicted that the price of gold would fall to USD$700 an ounce, and has since revised this prediction to 2017.[10]
On December 10, 2016, Dent predicted that the Dow Jones Industrial average could fall 17,000 points as a result of Donald Trump's election win. Less than two weeks later, Dent reversed his opinion and thinks there is short term growth for the US stock market, but demographic forces will keep the economic growth stagnant in the longer term.[11]
Larry Swedroe, writing for CBS Money Watch asks, "Why do people listen to Harry Dent in light of his obvious inability to accurately predict the future?"[14]
Gold may go any way and no one knows so I would ignor the so called pundits and stick to the tea leaves. All the best