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I am indeed a cheery soul, and with more good news; gold has hit an all time high today … in sterling, that counts for our sterling profit, the miners challenge remains costs especially translated into sterling so as usual I shall be watching them keenly on Thurs, but lovely to see gold finally nearing £1600

Dear Steve. What I have lamented losing on Cey is that my shares were worth over a million, but are worth half that now, not on the cost, and thus prevented me building along with Hoc even worse. I started buying Cey in the 50’s and have added when they have fallen to the 80’s as looking back you can read, I have also bought some more expensively hence the 114 average(103p in the isa) Happy to send you my broker notes and photo which will show my nose is actually quite short even a bit snub. And yes I very stupidly did sell a small percentage to buy Hoc and THS, Hoc was a terrible mistake mainly because of the Peruvian election a couple of years ago, but THS has declined less than cey (about 25% from my cost price tho added more cheaper) and is paying a lovely big divi today. Xx

Steve, my average price is currently 114 (on 584k), I was only saying that the dividend will be lower than last year and asking what this might do to the share price ie not questioning the importance or not of dividends but the effect of reduced dividend on the share price? I am very cheery, just honest about where the share price might go short term. It seems Horgan has kicked the can of everything will get better (ie profits recover) in 2023 down to 2025, but as you say miners are hugely volatile and depend even more on the gold price than management ineptitude imho. Anyway let’s hope tomorrow brings some good forward news alongside the lower dividend (by how much is the point) Horgan does seem to be getting costs back down a bit. PS the muppet couldn’t have predicted an outlier like a failed bank last week, the bigger question is whether he is right and gold will not hold these highs, I of course hope his long correct streak of predicting lower will turn and gold will soar

Mike although I remain gloomy on future profits expecting them to be lower I love this share as profits could halve and PE would still be under 5, and quarter and still be under 10 so a lot of comfort there. I think buyers will only pay a low price for the share just because they see profits falling so need that big comfort margin

Wonder how much dividend will be down on Thursday and how much the shares will be down even though a collapsed divi is built into our share price. Last year was 4c and 5c This year 2.5c so far so would beed to b 6.5c to make 9 again. I imagine it will probably be around 3 or 4c making a total of say 6c which will only be down a third? But could be even lower? When the 2.5c was declared it knocked us a bit so I expect this happen again on Thurs. Then the market will get used to a maybe halved dividend which alongside the halved share price will continue to give a decent yield to those buying now

I expect Hochschild too would love to know if they can carry on working, but it maybe beyond their control either physically or in negotiating skills

Mike that is about right, ASSUMING the basket stays at 1930 but it seems to be on the way down in a big trend in which rhodium has fallen 3 fold over a 2 years descent, so I think quite likely to be lower, the share price is saying that. Of course as you point out chrome is now more important, till Karo comes along, but no guarantee that it will stay up, and if chrome returned to price a year ago, and with lower PGM basket, the profit and PE could look very different,

Yes pleasing if seems to be the case, he said gold would top out around 1870, but sold earlier as he wasn’t sure, in fact it only made it to 1860 before tumbling back down near $1800. I haven’t read what he said subsequently but overall Let’s hope he is quite wrong,. I would like nothing more than him to be very wrong and gold to soar above 2000.

In ii I trade them in Toronto

I hold them in interactive investor which I find an excellent and value stockbroker

Seingred, quite agree as ever, the other challenge is companies are supposed to have at heart the interests of the directors and workforce, their shareholders and the community/consumers. Small aim companies such as this are often run by their directors for their directors, for whom spending the balance sheet on whatever vanity project office staff or quality of life, and diluting shareholders with share raising at increasingly low prices (last time if I remember 17p) doesn’t matter, rather than thinking at all of existing shareholder who actually employ them, worse for us next time they are going to have to offer the new shares very cheap to get them away with such a track record, and with their hefty spend this is coming sooner as you say. Also what is the corporate reorganisation of the Newmont/Agnico Monte Aguila and why taking such a very long time?

Mike, the cash costs at Karo were projected at $1100 per oz in Oct and should be a bit inflated now, and of course the total cost aisc considerably higher. Therefore one could guess that around a 25% fall from 2140 to 1640 might lead to 75% fall in Karo profit very very roughly, and as we get nearer cost, a further 10% fall in basket might lead to a further 50% in profitability, we must be getting close to break even or loss. However as you say a couple of years is a long time in the PGM market. If the Fed do bring on a recession it could be quite dire, with remaining profitability of our main mine paying for Karo losses, and. a hefty balance sheet tiding us through. On the other hand economies could boom, ev sales could slow and ice rise and we could be in an amazing position with two super profitable mines, why the share price is where it is but as said before it has proved pretty resilient through this drop, and PGM up today tho maybe only a bounce in the downward escalator. Luckily the share price on such a very lowly pe is already anticipating a lot of this

Stanley, even when Maria Rosa is making money it is much smaller output than Inmaculada and really only make up for Arcata/Pallancata. Historically I would have said we could survive without Inmaculada, the bulk of our profit, but with gearing now totally changed and 9figires of debt to service it will be tough. Without Inmaculada we would be worth maybe 10p or even 20p if went very well, with over a pound but remember the board said the decision probably won’t be binary

Well dividend 3.3%, after tax for me about 2.2% and shares so far only down 1.9% so in effect up against falling metals mainly because anticipating. Question now is whether they’ll start anticipating further falls or not, or even rises. Metals would have to be a fair bit lower to justify this price even if profits quartered

….by the end of the quarter would be lucky judging by previous promises

Please do and report back, of course Karo costs will have risen too, still a great investment but it worries rhe market. Tharisa it’s a highly anticipatory share, having pre-empted the current PGM fall and stayed relatively flat through it.

Sorry about that confusion and thanks Cury, but stranger and stranger, on the Johannesburg exchange it appears to me that Tharisa hasn’t traded since 27th of Feb, so I can’t see what going ex div there today has done to the price? Anyway, we shall see here tomorrow.
On another post, thanks Mike, however if PGM’s continue their gentle and seemingly continuous fall or even stay the same, we won’t be baled out by a better first quarter next time. Also Chrome on some sites is down a little, hopefully just taking a breather and won’t join in the fall. Most worrisome, I think the Karo basket is now below $1600, I wonder what the assumed price for the business case and payback was

Sorry Steve I was trying to say that two days ago he said this rise, which he predicted, spot on as so often, would end soon at 1870 ie not long now, and then there will be a big fall, so far he has been right

Premyslaw Radomski who seems to call gold better than most (I find Gary Wagner second) called this turn up right on the button again last week. Unfortunately he said it would end around $1870 a couple of days ago, when gold was a bit lower, and the would come the big drop; I do hope he is wrong but he rarely seems to be.

Gosh Tibbs what cheering news and I do hope you prove right, 5 years the annual calendar year dividend was over 10p, last year around 6p, I see it falling to around 4p ie by 33%, hope I am wrong as I always do and the optimists read it better but I somehow doubt it on this when profits will be lower and they say they will no longer pay all or more of the profits as dividends but reinvest a hunk which is worrisome to me, best regards Jeremiah