Member Info for Sotolo

Paul you are right, I sold some Centamin for Hoc probably around when they hit parity - Hoc share price has historically been around 40% more than Centamin, however as you point out Hoc continued down and is now far below cey, the politics has been far worse than expected, the main mine under siege etc. However it was only a small percentage of my cey holding that I then bought back, and I haven’t bought or sold either since last Easter and sorting tax, till my small cey top up yesterday. Yes I have been reinvesting dividends in Tharisa as I continue to think it is a great and undervalued company, but the price stays low as despite its huge profits (pe about 2.5) it reinvests the vast majority in growing a new mine, so it is another jam tomorrow but I have great faith, hope I am right as at an average price about 25% above now. Also the market worries about electric car effect on PGM prices but forgets half the Ths profit is now chromium which continues up, just as they think Hoc is still a silver miner whereas now it is mainly and increasingly gold. Cey remains by far my biggest holding and you are quite right I should have kept the faith and reinvested divis here, but also didn’t want even more eggs in one basket. And Tibbs I have a mortgage I wouldn’t have needed if I sold Centamin so you could say overall I am leveraged but it is only about 15% of my total wealth. I couldn’t resist the mortgage as it was 5 years at 0.9%. On £100k the divi should be £30k, and inflation should lift the share price even if it falls in real terms. Maybe foolhardy.

I did too though only by £5k, tho expect the little jump with the Berenberg 270 price target is just market makers taking advantage, as the share does seem very cheap at these prices. The PGM basket continues to drift down, I make it $2300 now, however I think the market fails to notice chromium drifting up as fast as PGM basket drifts down. At current prices we should still generate most of the cash for Karo and if/when that is done successfully we should be throwing off cash, unless PGM’s collapse, hopefully more cash for us! It will be interesting/salutary to see the Europe/us/China car electrification effect on PGM, maybe chromium to the rescue

Thanks as ever Razor, and for being a consistent part of our lives!

Yes Steve I have just stuck with Centamin. However the near 50% recent rise makes up a chunk of it and 10 years of around 6% dividends have made another chunk. It is a pretty fantastic year in year out income even if reduced

I am not a trader as it doesn’t suit me, I like to buy a share which gives me a hefty dividend as that is my income, and will keep going. I hate doing the CGT. Gold now just £2 off all time high

Also it is gold price in sterling less aisc in sterling that leads to our profit in sterling and our sterling share price . The gold price in Sterling is just a third of a percent or £5 off it’s all time high today!

Indeed Tins you were most optimistic and along with the likes of Mizolgit a bit critical when I kept saying ounces are going down costs up, profits will be quitea way down and shares will fall to the 90’s, well it was even worse than I thought. However now that you turn gloomy I have turned optimistic, so much is now going in our favour even if Mr Horgan may be a bit lacklustre which may be no bad thing. Ounces are rising, costs are as under control as any miner with our solar etc, the legal case looks resolved and the get out of jail gold price is rising - $ profits now will be double 2 months ago when gold was $300 below today. In fact I was so pleased with the nothing in particular result and forward guidance that I waited a little for the fall and bought another £10k first thing today to get 114, as I thought the pull back after the results was just a sell on the news. Well expect if I have bought it will tumble tho perhaps by bad luck or chance I proved sadly right for a couple of years on the way down.

Yes duster there is, although the mines are far apart they are both in troublesome areas, and hoc is threatened both by locals, angry about both our company and the regime change, and permit renewal. However hopefully both will be fine and we will find out more on 31st

thorny one, where did you get this and who are these foreign agitators? I think it is likelier r the other way round, it appears from some of the press, if right, that the regime change has been fermented by foreign interests from further north In the continent, as has been historically usual, and the poor people many indigenous are protesting in support of a democratically elected leader who was one of them, if not good for our share price. Anyway another scary headline today, Glencore closing its huge mine due to protests, https://go.pardot.com/e/398282/n-peru-due-to-violent-protests/23hlc8n/2114798089?h=6JILCU9Q74j4imiSLCuIstzq6uFp0YZ5jRLXIyRW5Ss . I do wonder what is happening at Inmaculada and what the company silence means?

Thanks for posting this nreaktwister and prompting me to look further ,and yes quite a lot on this, alleging US ambassador is ex CIA and involved in the regime change from Castillo to Boluarte, though I have no idea . However I also see BBC news today that Machu Pichu is closed because of the violence from protestors backing the old president Castillo, while meantime the EU has condemned the widespread violence since the regime change and what it called the "disproportionate" use of force by the police saying. "The EU calls on the government and all political actors to take urgent steps to restore calm and ensure an inclusive dialogue with the participation of civil society and affected communities as the way out of the crisis," So we have two headwinds, the Inmaculada permit renewal, and second the unrest threatening the mine as Castillo supporters or ex shining light maoists, or whoever the are have stormed Inmaculada. I wonder what the company will finally have to say, at least about the latter, on 31st Jan, how it is affecting them and how they think it will do so going forward. Obviously if the permit is sorted and unrest subsides Hoc share price should soar, if gold and silver continue to rise, despite declining ounces mined and soaring costs, though at what human cost? On the other hand, if unrest increases and/or the permit is rescinded or not extended, the consequences will be dire. SO a huge gamble either way and not for widows or orphans but those who are prepared for a gamble or who really understand the Peruvian situation, the (perfidious) strength of the USA there, what the military might do, the backing of Boluarte etc....

The dividend being paid out of borrowed money was that so it didn’t drop too far during our problems. However as currently if mid aisc is projected $1325 with todays gold price that is $600 an ounce above it which translates after emra etc to £100k profit which more than covers it. Centamin under Pardy always paid out most of the profit as dividends which was a lovely thing if not necessarily great long term. Horgan looks like continuing that tho he did once say investment would rise but he would borrow for this

Impecunious, silly to sell if price rises, sensible if it falls, and with OMI who knows?

So output should be back to 2020 this year, around 465k ounces, but costs are $300 higher an ounce. Gold averaged $1766 in 2020 so to put it all together and if gold were to average $2066 this year we would be back to 2020 profitability. If it averages the same as the last 4 years a fairly consistent $1766-$1794, then profits about 40% lower than 2020, explains the share price of around 120 till/if gold rises further (or falls) imho

Looks steady and as expected, including aisc for 2023 now up to 1250-1400. Still as expected is great for Centamin

Tony have you tried them back to ask why they haven’t called?

Yes now says 31st on the website, Dark I didn’t mean to imply this quarter will be dire, just that it could be but we do not have a clue from the company on how production and sales have been affected by the troubles so Tony do ask what is happening in Inmaculada and report back.

We’ll the share price doesn’t seem very interested so far at the open

FYI On 8 February 2021, the Group signed agreements with JP Morgan to hedge the sale of 4,000,000 ounces of silver at US$27.10 per ounce for 2021 and a further 4,000,000 ounces of silver at US$26.86 per ounce for 2022. On 10 November 2021, the Group signed agreements with JP Morgan to hedge the sale of 3,300,000 ounces of silver at US$25.0 per ounce for 2023. So the 2021 qnd 2022 hedges have worked out well and been prescient, this year looks like it may be less so. However the amount is a bit less this year than last and only around a quarter of our silver or little more than 10% of our output now we are majorly a goldmine. Silver rising will put a question on Pallancata as though running out if the price goes above $30 it might even become profitable again. The difficulty is always to know how sustained a higher price will be

Thank you as ever Siko for the advance information, and thank you Mr Horgan and Buchanan for your speedy Rns this morning. Roll on the appeal which seems a formality and the share price we hope today. Although still half owned by EMRA this should also make Centamin a more attractive bid target albeit 50% more expensive than last summer. However if gold continues to strengthen and further exploration gets going and is successful we will hopefully do better alone as a growing long life tier 1 miner. About time the company had some luck and much now seems to be going their way. My holding remains the biggest I have and a third of my portfolio

Oh Dark if only; Hoc's last RNS on the subject was at start of Nov when they said they would put out a further RNS if anything changed from tat RNS which said: "Hochschild Mining PLC announces that on 31 October 2022, a group of approximately 30 people from a local community broke into the Inmaculada mining unit and severely damaged certain non-critical installations. The Company took immediate action to ensure the safety of the 1,700 employees at the operation and that its rights under Peruvian law were respected. The relevant authorities, including local law enforcement, were notified. Despite these developments and the fact that a prior agreement had been in place with the community in question, the Company held discussions with community representatives on 1 and 2 November. As this did not result in an agreement being reached, further discussions will be held next week with representatives from the Peruvian government also scheduled to attend.....further updates will be provided if the situation changes."

There were no further updates RNS given on these discussion or since, although many Peruvian business newspaper articles have written about ongoing problems for the mine, new blockades etc, so can't wait to see what the company says, little of hemlock at the ready. According to LSE this will be on this coming Wednesday, it has been missing from the Hochschild site in the spirit of the usually abysmal communications but now says it will be on this Thursday. Just hoping Inmaculada is in any way resolved after the news blackout from the company, at such an extreme time, now for well over 2 months.